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As we approach the 2019-2020 Winter, many thoughts should begin to turn toward raw material supplies of winter deicers. This is a good time to try to understand some of the dynamic forces that can affect supply and pricing of commodity products like road salt.

In over 40 years of winter product supply experience, I’ve not seen such wide variations in road salt pricing across the US as I am seeing right now.

One region is seeing prices fall while others are seeing prices rise and that is fairly unusual – and particularly so in the pre-season. When winter sets in and the demand switch for road salt is turned to the on position, it’s not surprising to see regions that are hardest hit begin to experience some pain in the supply and increase in price. The very definition of a commodity is that pricing is pretty even generally and moreover driven by supply and demand.

This year is very different with more fluid dynamics in play than a hydraulic system. I said fluid dynamics because largely, water is the force behind the lower prices as well as the higher prices in road salt this year.

In previous State of the Industry addresses, I wrote about the problems stemming from unrelenting rains and flooding in the US which have pushed rivers over their banks and caused silt to move into waterways and block them.

That has not improved.

In fact, it is worsening.

The Good News

Good news first. For those along the East Coast, competition has continually increased with international sources of supply in road salt, which can go by many other names: rock salt, bulk ice control, and “salt.” As these new international sources have gained footholds in the US market, they are continually making improvements in ocean shipping, facilities, and ports. Many ports around the world have worked to upgrade channel depths to accommodate larger vessels with deeper drafts and larger cargo loads. In some cases, new ports and sources have been constructed and developed and we expect that will continue to apply downward price pressure along the East Coast. New sources in the Middle East and North Africa have been working to participate in the US market for over a decade with improving success. Many new sources have good quality road salt that will meet ASTM specifications for granulation and moisture. Establishing a position and supply of road salt is not as easy as one may think. Many have been the unfortunate victims of rip-offs by entering the world of importation and international shipping without the benefit of an expert “trail guide” only to encounter financial and quality problems with what they get… if anything. On the surface, that $16-per-ton offer from an email FOB in a Middle East or North African country may seem to be a great deal, but without understanding all the pieces of the puzzle needed to reach your location, you are doomed before you start.

More to the point, Egypt has been finding more and more channels into the US market. In the process they get better at understanding what the market needs in terms of quality and moisture. The Siwa Oasis region in the western desert of Egypt holds vast salt reserves – some good quality and some not-so-good. Having vast reserves and having the ability to mine, screen, and deliver it to a waiting vessel at a port are very different things. As the infrastructure to prepare salt for the US market has continually improved, these new sources have opened up a new port for export in Matruh which will shorten the distance from the mine region to the ship by over 50 percent. Typically, the port of Alexandria Egypt, which is 700 km away from Siwa, has been the only port of embarkation option for these sources, but now Matruh is just 300 Km north and that cuts the inland freight costs considerably. Brazil, South American, Mexican, and, Caribbean sources participate and many of these are new sources to the US market. With the East Coast US proximity and wide availability of deep-water ports up through the snow-belt, this will continue to confound the market with supply and competition. If you’re on the East coast and need salt, you should be able to get all you need provided you have properly qualified your source and quality. That’s the good news.

And Now The Bad News

If you are in Heartland America in the snow belt, then you may be facing trouble on many fronts. First, the weather has all but wreaked havoc on the river systems with storm water volume. Remember that at the onset of this report I mentioned that water is key for both benefits and problems; it depends on where you are located. Because salt is one of the most inexpensive commodities on the planet, mining and transportation are generally 80 percent or more of the cost by the time it reaches end users. With regard to the central US, it is the largest expense in getting salt to market. There is not sufficient domestic North American production of road salt to supply the central US market. That market must have imported salt and that imported salt relies heavily on the waterways to move product to strategic piles. Along the Great Lakes, salt must move by barge or shallow draft “Laker” bulk carriers because most bulk ocean vessels cannot enter the lakes due to their draft depth requirements. This means salt moving by sea into the lakes requires either a shallow draft vessel or a stop at an intermediate location to then trans-load onto shallow draft vessels capable of moving across the lakes. The double handling and extra hands in the salt drive the costs up.

Domestic producers are very much aware of competitive pressures and, generally speaking, will match pricing to the lowest competitive offer. For example, a North American producer who is selling salt in the Baltimore market for $50 per ton may sell that same salt in the Midwest for a lot more since Baltimore is an active port and imported salt pressures down the price. But if the closest competitor in price is $90 per ton in Milwaukee, rest assured that the domestic producer will adjust accordingly.

Further stinging the salt market in the mid-west this year is the on-going high water in the Mississippi and adjacent waterway systems with some impassible. These rivers are vital transportation corridors for bulk commodities, and the high water has prevented barges and vessels from getting up and down the river. The back-up of bulk barges in NOLA (New Orleans) is significant. With the delays to get up river building up the back-logs, the barge rates have all but skyrocketed by as much as 250 percent with availability nearly nil. Again, those increased costs have to come from the market where they are sold. Moving inexpensive bulk commodities from point to point is always a game of transportation efficiency; and when that efficiency is impeded, the domino effect of price recovery takes off.

Salt Summary

I think the East is fine and will get whatever they need absent another February 2015 weather pattern in which it was nearly impossible to keep up with demand driven by storms every 3 days for six plus weeks. The central US is a house of cards. They cannot get salt up the river and there is not sufficient domestic supply to cover demand if winter comes in. That is the big “if.” We cannot predict weather and there are a couple of scenarios by which things in the mid-west could get in trouble. If it were to snow early and hard, that will quickly deplete on-the-ground supplies with limited reloading. If snow arrives late and hard, the same situation will drive panic. If it doesn’t snow or is a mild winter, then all will be fine. Plan accordingly.

Salt Addiction

America is addicted to salt and it’s a growing problem with no easy answers. We’re not talking about food salt. This is deicing salt addiction.

According to various sources, globally we consume about 80 million tons of road salt per year. Of that, the United States consumes about 25 percent in a heavy winter. Interestingly, Europe consumes just 7-8 million tons – or roughly ?rd of what the U.S. uses in the same time period. All of this despite Europe being twice the U.S. population with roughly the same-sized land mass and snowbelt.

How is it that we are using three times as much deicer with just half the population size?

Why So Much?

If you ask 100 people in the snow business this question, you might get 50 different answers. However, here’s how I see it.

Tort law is No 1. Slip-and-fall lawsuits are expensive, with the average lawsuit settlement reaching over $100,000. That is everything from the “staged” fall in the supermarket to the person in leather dress shoes slamming their face on a snow-filled parking lot. The cost of settling these lawsuits far exceeds the cost of just blasting the surface with deicers. So, the prevailing mindset is, “If a little does a good job, more will do a better job.” We’ll soon learn why that mindset is often wrong.

The second issue is the advent of SUV and 4WD in the hands of people who shouldn’t be driving in snow. If you live in the Snowbelt, it’s likely you or a neighbor own a four-wheel or all-wheel drive vehicle. Those vehicles enable travel for a segment of our population that does not respect winter driving and thinks they don’t need to leave for work early on snow days – i.e. “The streets need to be black and wet!”

Adding insult to injury is that our climate is changing. We see more and more ice storms creeping North into the traditional Snowbelt. These ice storms consume 3-5 times the quantity of deicer than comparable snow storms. Fighting an ice storm is an all-chemical fight. In other words, a plow and shovel are useless for ice removal until that ice has been hit with chemical deicer first.

We’re seeing this problem all over the Southeast U.S. Many communities are now ramping their snow-fighting equipment following unexpected and sometimes catastrophic winter weather events. Take Atlanta and Dallas. In recent years, these communities were paralyzed by ice storms that closed down cities for days. Many of these disasters could’ve been avoided with more sufficient resources to manage wide-spread ice events. But now we’re seeing the aftermath, an over-reaction: too much willingness from affected communities to apply product during storms regardless of whether the conditions demand it.

Yes, it’s important to be prepared, and no one would argue that point. But now we need to take a closer look at how our behaviors might be creating bigger and more complicated problems.

Using Lots of Deicers

Everything in life is a consequence for an action. Usually, the consequences are desired, such as melting away snow and ice so the surface is safely passable. However, when we increasingly slather our road surfaces with deicers, where does the run-off go? This is the adverse consequence of deicing use – because every pound of deicer purchased is disposed of back into the environment.

Think about that. Every pound purchased is then applied to the property of that purchaser – at which point the deicer either seeps into the ground, runs off with storm water, or if it’s chloride-based, reacts with steel to corrode bridges, vehicles, and electrical systems. Unfortunately, these potential adverse consequences for our transportation and infrastructure are just the tip of the iceberg.

Contaminants

Salt is sodium chloride. When sodium chloride seeps into ground water, aquifers, lakes, streams, and reservoirs, it contaminates fresh water and causes potential problems at many levels. Public and private well water supplies can experience elevated levels of sodium in the water, which is problematic for people with hypertension. In that case, it’s the sodium that’s the problem. But in other cases, it’s not the sodium; it’s the chloride. When salt runs off into fresh water surface bodies such as lakes and streams, it elevates the surface levels of chloride which may reach toxic levels for fish, plants, and other aquatic species.

As we already know, salt demand in the U.S. is exploding. And with this explosion comes an increase in new and often unproven global sources of salt entering the U.S. market. This isn’t always good. A New England region user who recently switched from a Chilean-sourced to North African-sourced salt provider later tested their product to find high levels of heavy metals. Unfortunately, those contaminants were high enough to break through the company’s storm water discharge permit threshold limits. The consequence: an EPA violation of a $250,000 fine, and a final warning that one more violation would close a nearly 100-year-old manufacturing business – thereby idling hundreds of employees. All of this from what should have been innocuous, routine winter ice control.

If we plan on preserving our private facilities, storm water management control centers, and environment, we need to be careful with new-to-market, unvetted global salt sources. It’s important all buyers of deicers and salt know exactly what they are buying, where it comes from, and that they demand for detailed certified breakdown of typical ingredients including contaminants and metals.

But it’s also just as important to recognize that this problem isn’t only limited to global markets. Recently, a U.S. source of magnesium chloride start showing detectable levels of poly chlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in their liquid magnesium chloride deicer at a community in the Pacific northwest. PCBs are a major environment concern since they not only take hundreds of years break down, but they’re also carcinogenic. While the levels were relatively low, the fact is that PCB contamination in the Great Salt Lake carried over into product that was applied to roads in a state 800 miles away. That goes to show how widespread and interconnected these issues are, and understandably, why environmentalists and regulatory agencies are not enamored with polluting their highways and adjacent lands.

Moreover, areas with high population concentration and high use of deicing products are now seeing near-toxic levels of chlorides in fresh water; that is, toxic to people and fish. Flint, Mich., had lead problems that made major news headlines for over a year. Soon, we can expect to see high sodium levels and chloride levels in other communities threatening aquatic life and potable water purity. Is it possible that deicing usage might one day evoke the same public outcry as Flint did with its lead? If the environmental damage all falls back on the mismanagement of winter deicing operations, then the answer is yes.

Not Just Road Salt

These problems are not limited to road salt, but with upwards of 20 million tons of salt hitting the US environment every year. We need to look at all the products we use in winter deicing no differently than we would look at the fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides used to manage agriculture and even right to what we put on our lawn. If you’re on a well, think about what you are applying to the surface of your property as it migrates down toward your water source. The deicing public is so focused on getting sidewalks, roadways, and surfaces free of snow to avoid slip-and-fall or crash potentials – they’re not thinking about the unintended problems from insanely high deicing use.

With increased attention on groundwater recharge, many property owners are now using porous pavement surfaces to enable groundwater recharge more readily. These porous surfaces facilitate groundwater recharge, but they also require more deicer to keep them unplugged from ice. We can quickly see how this might become counterproductive: save the surface for safe passage; destroy the groundwater with contaminants in the process. Keep in mind that when we pollute our drinking water sources, cleanup is incredibly expensive and difficult.

From what the state puts on our interstates and roads to what the homeowner buys at retail… all of it ends up back in our environment. There is little to no regulatory oversight, labeling requirements, or enforcement until after this type of pollution becomes the problem of the property owner. Once again, an adverse consequence.

Pathway Forward

No easy answers here. My viewpoint is that education should be first on our list. The motoring and traveling public must be more understanding during snow events. They cannot set the bar so high that we are slathering every horizontal surface with excessive deicers to allow for winter travel at dry pavement speeds. After that, we need to be better about informing property owners on the potential problems from heavy applications. We need to carefully respect that if we are adjacent to wetlands or on top of an aquifer, we must use much less product, or in some cases, a different product as to not potentially threaten those resources. If we make a broad, concerted effort to educate the market, it will benefit all of us. Finally, we need to use the best available practices and methods to reduce the amount of product we apply. This is so we meet needs and avoid over-applying – all while keeping our people and environment safe.

We need to advocate sensible deicing practices and help educate people who have no understanding of what we, snow fighters and related businesses, do. Most importantly, we need to encourage everyone to use less. Another 30 years of hitting our surfaces as we do now will find us saddled with obscene contamination cleanup costs… and that’s IF we even have the ability to clean up the mess.

Use less, educate more, and advocate for TORT reform.

Where’s The Salt?

Regional supply and price challenges grow in road salt supply for the preseason 2018-19.

While there is plenty of salt on this blue marble in space that we all live on, road salt availability in certain regions is showing early signs of supply and price problems as we enter the preseason this fall.

Coastal markets are generally well supplied from multiple sources globally. However, some interior regions of the US are already seeing signs of availability problems. Along with availability troubles come price increases so expect both in the affected regions. Much of this is the result of a significant uptick in transportation costs along with a series of events with domestic mines that triggered some delays and problems.

The relatively good news in supply will be the coastal snow belt of the Northeast United States. This region from North Carolina to the Canadian border has been a very competitive market for decades due to proximity to deep water ports where salt from as far away as Australia can arrive competitively against salt mined in North America. I’ve mentioned in previous State of the Salt addresses how ocean freight costs had plunged in recent years resulting from changes in ocean shipping and vessel size. Well, those days are now winding down and a new set of sea going vessel conditions are impacting road salt supplies.

Moving any bulk commodity product like road salt, require bulk containers whether they are dump trucks, rail cars or ships. Since one ship can haul enough salt to supply a small city for the entire winter and their costs are a fraction of rail and truck, water transportation is the main way in which salt tends to arrive where waterborne delivery is possible. Understanding some of these transportation nuances are important for all buyers of road salt as the salt itself does not see big swings in mining and harvesting costs, the delivery vehicle whether a rail car, dump truck or bulk ocean vessel, are seeing relatively big increases in costs. In my previous article, I wrote about the truck driver shortage in the U.S. Add ocean vessels to the mix now.

The largest dry bulk vessels are Cape Class vessels capable of carrying 150,000 DWT (dead weight tons) up to 450,000 DWT. Rates on dry bulk Cape Class ships are up nearly 100 percent over a year ago. Panamax vessels, the largest vessels that can transit the Panama Canal, average about 65,000 DWT and are seeing mostly flat rates, but the vessel availability is not great and particularly for salt movements. Supramax vessels can haul 50,000 tons are a common workhorse for salt and capable to transit the oceans and into deep water ports, but they cannot enter the Great Lakes or river system due to their deep draft. Surpramax vessels are available, but predominately only from Europe on a “European backhaul” basis. These facts are a key element to the next part of this report and explaining where trouble is starting to show up.

Rough times ahead

There are salt supply problems in the upper Midwest stemming from a series of events that combined into early trouble. Typically, the river system is busy in season (August to October) with moving grains from the grain belt down the Mississippi river by barges to NOLA (New Orleans) for shipment to overseas customers. That market right now is very robust, and the barge operators do not want to sit waiting for a salt ship to arrive to then transload into those same barges for a “backhaul” up the river to various ports. There is more revenue to be gleaned by turning right around and reloading grain because salt is always trying to move on the cheap. Why is this a problem? It’s a problem because those grain barges are going back up the river empty to catch the next downstream run without interruption because the prices and demand for grain is strong and road salt suppliers are unable to pay up $25 per ton more to go from New Orleans up to the grain belt. Therefore, even if a ship of salt does arrive in NOLA to then transload to barge service for river delivery, getting covered barges to haul that salt committed and booked is nearly impossible. Now they need to wait until grain season is over and hope to catch up-river barges provided an early freeze does not lock out the river and lake system for traffic.

We’ve been seeing early signs of trouble in the upper Midwest salt markets since July and that is deepening quickly. Most buyers have not realized just how serious supply is right now and by the time they do, it will likely be too late to do much about it. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Midwest’s only option for salt may be from the coast by truck or rail if it snows and demand for what small amounts are currently available get quickly bought up. Add to that at least two prominent North American mines with flooding problems curbing production rates coupled with a three-month labor strike at the largest salt mine in the world in Goderich, Ontario, and you have a system that is behind, can’t catch up and has serious delivery problems as a result of the foregoing vessel market.

Any Hope?

This does not mean that there is no hope, but what it means from my side of the desk is that if we want to move salt into the upper Midwest, our only option is to use seagoing vessels to move it into the St. Lawrence and Quebec, then unload onto dry land and book “Lakers” (lake service low draft barges/vessels) and then reload to ship on to the delivery point. All of that comes at a significant price increase due to multiple points of handling and travel. Each of these ports is often ILA controlled (International Longshoreman’s Association), where six-figure salaries are routine. Add to that the number of required union longshoremen to discharge or load a vessel and you can see how these costs quickly skyrocket. Options are narrow for getting salt to most places without involving a ship and longshoremen.

The Cost

We believe that salt prices will continue to firm up and then begin rising as we move through the preseason window leading up to Nov. 1, which is the start of in-season prices for most suppliers. If it snows frequently in the upper Midwest markets, it will quickly deplete the inventories and then panic buying will quickly drive up prices and cut availability to nearly zero for private markets and make municipal markets very tight.

Path Forward

If you have not purchased and/or committed to the road salt that you expect you will need for this winter yet, you have very little time left to do that if any time at all. The early bird will get the only salt out there and then it will be a fight for tons anywhere you can get them. We do not expect to see any improvement in supply or prices on salt in the regions indicated at this time unless flooding in the affected mines is managed and stops, and the river and lakes do not freeze this year. If we have early and hard cold in the snow belt, all bets are off for supply of road salt. If on the other hand, it doesn’t snow, then none of this will much matter. Roll the salt dice accordingly.

Winter 2017-18 arrived late much like the past few winters. While many regions experienced significant and prolonged cold in December and early January, no appreciable amounts of snow in the population centers came during that cold stretch. While most apply salt during any snow event irrespective of whether it is truly needed or not, the demand volume knob was never turned beyond three on a scale to 10 this past winter. Yes, product did move, but in manageable amounts and at manageable velocity.

Velocity is the key.

While the supply side of the business can keep pace with intermittent or sporadic storms, problems arise when snowstorms come in back-to-back and on cold pavements. That weather pattern demands application of deicing products as the snow fighter shifts from a mechanical fight with plows and loaders to a chemical fight of salt and other products. If you want to see trouble coming, then pay close attention to weather patterns that stack up winter events in a tight delivery pattern as well as events that arrive late in the season when supplier stockpiles and inventories are intentionally driven down for economic considerations.

There is enough salt on this planet to fully treat a nuclear winter; however, not all of that is sitting in a stockpile around the corner. In fact, virtually all of it is in the ground and sea awaiting mining and harvesting. The supply side of the industry works hard to anticipate what will come for winter weather, then in a carefully orchestrated and choreographed plan they schedule stockpile initial filling, then fill the market for pre-season demand. Then the tricky part comes – when to re-load the stockpile and at what velocity. It usually takes a month or more to fill the market. Remember that fact when you need a complete reload in days. The system can’t meet that kind of intense demand on a big scale.

Manage risks.

Long-range weather forecasting and risk-taking are hallmarks of the decision tree when it comes to bringing in more product for bulk salt stockpiles and packaged deicer warehouses. It’s a big gamble and one in which there’s more than $100 million of products in play at any point in time. If we, the supply side, don’t have it in stock, we can’t sell it. It’s not hard to understand that component. However, the consumer market is averse to risk and refuses to purchase enough product to last the entire winter due to the uncertainty of the weather, so the burden of predicting the exact amount needed falls on the supply side. Generally, there’s disbelief, frustration, and anger directed towards suppliers when shortages occur, but they are caused by end users refusing to accept more risk.

Municipalities understand the risk and planning needs. Most have at least five to seven treatable events’ worth of inventory in stock to start the season. As soon as the first event is done, they initiate reloading, hoping to stay ahead of the curve if things turn tight. Private markets do not subscribe to this approach and generally have one to two storms of inventory, and then tend wait until they are sure that a storm is coming to call for a delivery.

That’s when trouble can begin. If they can hold on for a week or so before getting a delivery, the supply side can work them into a schedule and get product delivered in a manageable way. However, when everyone calls demanding immediate delivery and are told that cannot happen due to demand, panic tends to set in and the initial order for one is frequently doubled or tripled.

At no time in the history of man has doubling or tripling demand on an unavailable product helped to improve availability. It only worsens it … and likely exponentially. That’s the 50,000-foot view of the industry to help frame the conditions by which shortages occur.

Seeing shortages in April.

We generally declare our season over around Valentine’s Day. Historically, the market tries to run out inventories and will use whatever they have on hand to manage storms that tend to begin diminishing in frequency and intensity as we get closer to the start of summer. However, the past few years have been counter-cyclical and delivered much of the snow after January. It becomes even more difficult to determine what stockpile volumes will meet demand in the early spring adding another layer of unpredictability to the equation.

This year, we saw exactly that happen as the late season storms stimulated demand and, in some regions, created shortages as municipal supply trumps demand from the private markets. I’ve discussed the pitfalls for the salt suppliers in failing to supply municipal contracts as the penalty for supply failures are intensely costly and most suppliers will forsake spot market private supply to fulfill municipal. This is exacerbated by the late season where inventories are intentionally drawn down by all involved.

Understand price pressure.

While the overall demand for product was generally flat for an average winter, prices have been hammered down by a rush of new suppliers to the market that they believed was lucrative and short. In the spring of 2015 the market was very short. However, since then it has not been and now there is a bit of a glut of suppliers overall leading to continual downward price pressure.

That can only go for so long before the costs of holding inventory for extended periods coupled with on-going shortages of truck drivers and new DOT regulations on electronic data logs drive up the cost of transportation, forcing recovery of those costs. I do not see huge increases coming but I think we will see prices move up a bit in some markets more than others.

For example, the private market in the Chicago area jumped $10/ton in the spring as supplies ran out due to end of season syndrome. Salt and deicers are commodities like any other – price is driven by supply and demand, and demand was up and supply was down. It’s hard to predict the future, but I expect we’ll see some price recovery in bulk salt and possibly some bagged products as we move through the pre-season of winter 2018-2019.

Environmental pressure

This is a topic we all need to keep our eyes on closely. There has been a series of studies, reports and articles about rising levels of chlorides in North American fresh water. The rivers and lakes of the U.S. are beginning to show signs of the impact of what I will call excessive use of deicers.

This is a bit of a touchy subject, but we are routinely slathering surfaces with more deicing products than needed as fear of litigation drives that application. I am thinking that at some point, the EPA will likely regulate the business since every pound of deicing products purchased in the U.S. is “disposed of in the environment.”

While public safety has trumped other considerations, more attention is being directed at deicers for corrosion and chloride pollution. A recent article questioned if chlorides are the next phosphorus, referring to bans on phosphorus in detergents because of their role as a macro-nutrient to feed eutrophication – algae bloom in stagnant waters which chokes out eco-systems. There is real concern about the chloride impact in fresh waters so keep your eye on this topic; it may drive a whole new approach to chemical deicing and, at a minimum, it will advocate safe and careful applications of salt and allied products.

Generally, there is plenty of product available for the next season across the entire nation. I expect to see a little upwards price movement in certain regional markets – not all – but some regions will likely see an uptick in costs next season. As potential trade wars loom, their impact on premium deicers and salt may also play a role in increased costs. Environmental considerations and pollution from deicers will continue to grow as an issue and the industry will need to keep current with best available practices to ensure we are doing our part to minimize adverse impact from deicers.

Whenever I hear complaints that our products are dissolving cars and bridges, and ruining our waterways, I remind the complainer that if they would simply stay home until the storm is over and let the snow be cleared off and then have one application at the end, problem solved. The only reason we put any deicing products down is for public safety … there is no other reason.

Always remember that point and remind people who say we’re killing their [fill-in-the-blank] with our deicing products, that their insistence on driving in snow and not slowing down is what is causing that problem – not the people charged with treating the roads that the public demands be black and wet through the winter event from first to last flakes.

It is fall and the last week of September 2017 as I write this. Temperatures in many parts of the US snow belt this week have been in the 80s and 90s. How is that possible? An active hurricane season has caught the attention of many in the snow forecasting business. After 40 plus years in the snow business, I’ve come to the opinion that the long-range weather prognosticators are about as accurate as a blindfolded monkey with a dartboard.

With that said, I’ll get to the business at hand which the state of the salt or moreover the state of the deicing chemical business and what to expect as you enter the pre-season and fall. We’ve had two soft winters back to back and that can tend to lead to complacency in the end user market and severely high inventories on the supplier side. On the buyer, the “We can get what we need when it snows” mentality will prevail and while that is true for the start of the winter, it’s not necessarily a healthy and sustainable approach if we get into a protracted run of weather as we saw in the Northeast in the late winter of 2014-15 or what the Sierras saw last winter where we received an entire winter’s worth of snow in 42 days of non-stop weather events and the market ran dry on everything in those regions. Events like that will drain pipelines quickly and can trigger panic buying. At this point, the supply side is swimming in inventory on virtually everything, so it continues to be a buyer’s market.

Expect the unexpected

Panic buying is exactly what happened as the following fall’s pre-season saw record demand which drove many to think the demand of the market was exponentially bigger than it really was. What followed that heavy inventory grab was two winters of warm pavement and little snow with lots of new suppliers from every reach of the planet. What little snow we did get, melted as soon as it was cleared so the need for deicers was anything but panic.

Late last season, the northeast got a little snow, but again, with no frost in the ground to speak of the need was minimal. So now you’re reading this article as you blindfold the monkey to let him then throw darts at the board of weather to determine what you might expect for snow this winter. My friend Malcolm Poole, who spent a lifetime in the salt business and is now retired, said of the salt business; “It’s two years of mediocrity, two years of sheer misery, and one year of incredible bliss and you only need to figure out what order those come in and where you are in that order”. I think Malcolm was dead right. Are we due for mediocrity, bliss, or misery? Give the blindfolded monkey the dart and find out.

Regarding “the state of the salt”, abundant inventories would be an understatement. Right now, you can pretty much get anything you want without delay. The supplier stockpile side of the business is about as full as it gets. While that may sound good, there could be some potential issues with that from the effects of long-term storage. Tarps get holes, water gets in the pile, and over time all deicing products are hygroscopic (absorb water) to some degree so understand that these products don’t necessarily store well long term. We’ve had to dispose of inventory that didn’t keep by making brines from it before it turned into bricks. Sometimes the options are less and disposal is the only option. In all cases, inventories of salt, calcium chloride, and magnesium chloride are at record levels but caveat emptor for quality for the reasons stated.

Be mindful of clearly understanding the quality of that inventory from a shelf life viewpoint. Moisture content is critical in deicing materials. The holes in the three-year-old tarp on the salt pile that let a little bit of rain and moisture wick into the pile may require a jackhammer to loosen up when temperatures are sustained at sub-freezing. If you are buying, know the quality of the product you’re getting. If you are looking at the salt and bagged products in your own inventory that you’ve been sitting on for two years, make sure that inventory is still usable because that’s not something you want to find out is lumped and hard when you are hit with an event and need product on the ground now.

Normally, I break out salt and premium deicers separately in this report but this time, they are all in the same boat; high inventory and buyer’s market…at least for now. Be careful where you commit your business for supply. Many of the companies that rushed the market a few years ago thinking it was always robust are now looking to get out and may have a great deal now, but they may not be there if old man winter comes back.

Dry versus liquid?

Lots of interest, misinformation, and buzz about going liquid. Liquids are not new. We sold our first liquid system in 1979 to the City of Haverhill MA; a community with lots of north facing sloped streets. They were challenged with cars that became toboggans in snow events and felt they could enhance their salt’s performance with liquid based off the Marquette Study which was released just a few years prior. Understanding how to use liquids, and when to use them is important.

Let’s talk about the three basic liquid products in the US:

Salt Brine 23% NaCl – using a brine making machine or salt saturator, and a source of sodium chloride, on-site production of 23% NaCl is the target solution and common;

Liquid Calcium Chloride 32% CaCl2 – Most common commercial concentration and it is available in tank trucks and in small packages such as drums and totes in most regions. It is possible to manufacture calcium brines from dry product, but it’s difficult and requires a little know-how to make the 32% target solution;

Liquid Magnesium Chloride 30% MgCl2 – Most common commercial concentration and it is available in tank trucks and in small packages such as drums and totes in most regions. It is fairly easy to manufacture magnesium chloride brines from dry product, and that is done frequently where commercial bulk liquid is not readily available such as in remote regions.

There are too many “boutique” products on the market to begin to detail and discuss, but in nearly all of them, one of the liquids above is the base material.

De-icing

We do not advocate applications of liquids alone for snow removal and deicing. In some instances, there are new technologies that apply an “oatmeal” type mix of high levels of salt brine and fine road salt for certain conditions. This methodology was developed in Europe and is now finding its way into some US states with specially built application trucks. In those instances, salt brine tends to lend an extra buffer of safety in the use of salt brine versus calcium chloride or magnesium chloride which can quickly make a surface very slick when over-applied or applied incorrectly. If you are interested in learning more on this, you might read the Vermont Agency of Transportation’s report on their work from 2008/2009. Understand also that the road salt used in this process is much smaller granulation and a specialty product – but the “oatmeal” application system performed very well once balanced. (For more, enter http://bit.ly/2ybVM1h into your browser)

Liquids are now over 40 years in the snow and ice market and they are here to stay. However, liquids alone will never replace dry product in the snow belt. Salt, and packaged deicers are at their highest pre-season inventory levels in years, however be wise about not expecting that inventory to be quickly replenished if weather causes a “run-on-the-bank” of those inventories. Suppliers are still stinging from a lack of snow and once that product is sold, they will be cautious to reload inventory the later into the winter it gets. This could lead to late winter shortages if that happens. In one case, a salt importer is suing 48 communities in one East Coast state for not taking their winter estimate of salt because it didn’t snow. Be mindful of the condition of products offered due to the long-term storage ramifications.

Contractor’s Market

“Nothing is as easy as it looks” the weather prognosticators lament after last year’s abysmally missed winter forecasts.

All the experts called for another brutal winter and it was anything but brutal.

So, what does that mean for deicing products in North America? It means that the market is long and it’s a buyer’s market; whatever products you need or want, are plentiful and lower in cost. That’s the good news. However, we are also saying “caveat emptor” – Latin for “buyer beware.” The reason buyers need to be extra careful right now is multifaceted; but in simple terms, a perfect storm of market conditions in the preceding two winters attracted a lot of attention.

The perfect storm consisted of a strong U.S. dollar, weak winters in Europe, weak oil drilling, weak ocean freight, and a sudden one-year spike of opportunity driven by the intense frequency of storms in North America two years ago. That all lead to a rush to the market of new and unproven players.

The salt shortages in February of 2015 illuminated an underserved market. That short market was more the result of unexpected intense velocity than actual shortages. Moreover, when we have 125 inches of snow in five weeks in the Northeast, the velocity of demand is such that no suppliers could ever meet all of that demand, and many end-users did not understand that it was a temporary condition. It is impossible to store an entire winter’s worth of inventory and then deliver that all in one month.

The oil and gas industries use many of the same materials that the deicing industry uses: salt, calcium chloride, and magnesium chloride. With the collapse of oil prices, drill bits stopped and so did the demand for these materials which we use in winter maintenance. Adding to the allure of an underserved market is the strength of the U.S. dollar against all foreign currencies. Companies servicing the oil drilling markets that had collapsed now saw hope for recovery in snow and ice control after hearing of high prices and demand that was not being serviced…or so they thought. While those industries use the same chemicals, they are in different forms not suitable for snow and ice unless you like spreading powders. Adding to this imbalance of economics is the simultaneous collapse of bulk ocean shipping from over-supply. Bulk ships that haul bulk commodities including salt from production points around the world were being parked with reduced demand.

Caveat Emptor

The quality, reliability, safety of production, and many factors that are part and parcel of ISO 9000-certified production are not at all the case in other countries. It is not as simple as saying “I’d like to buy a ship of salt” with no experience in the market, but that is exactly what happened last year as everyone hoped to cash in big on another hard winter with high prices. That winter never came so these tons sit outside, uncovered in many cases, and are not of the quality standards for gradation, moisture, and purity that many may expect.

What does this mean to the buyer? It means you may have a frozen solid pile of salt when you go to use it in sub-freezing temperatures, and it may also mean reduced performance when it is useable from the actual quality versus expected quality. If the temperatures plunge and that bargain buy on evaporated salt looked good at 40F, it’s going to not be the great experience you hoped at 5F as it needs jackhammers to move.

We also see some products showing up in the market which are low quality when produced and some are just old inventory that has been sitting around since the spring of 2015 waiting for a season to move them. As the market goes out to explore buying opportunities for the pre-season, it is essential to have a firm understanding of the manufacturer’s warranty on the condition of the product and to get that in writing. Additionally, with the rush of new companies from overseas, understand that if you have a quality or product performance problem that results in a catastrophe, you need to be comfortable being the first and possibly only line of defense legally for the problem you didn’t create in the product your company sold.

For example, we provide certificates of insurance to customers routinely showing our $4 million of product’s liability insurance in addition to the routine coverages of general liability and worker’s compensation. Products liability is not “general liability,” which covers only claims within our property. Rather, products liability insurance covers product failures and claims against the product. We constantly see certificates from companies that have liability insurance, but not products liability which is a separate and delineated line item on certificates. We represent companies with a substantial physical footprint and presence in the U.S, so there is a supply chain for any potential litigation help within the U.S. borders for claims. Try filing a slip-and-fall lawsuit against a seller with a laptop, cellphone, and leased car whose production is in a third world country and let us know how that works for you.

The market is long on every product offered. It has been a long dry spell from the producer’s viewpoint for snow and ice demand. We’ve fortified inventories to the ceiling and are awaiting the arrival of winter weather and the corresponding demand. End users and applicators of snow and ice products need to understand that if we see another high velocity winter like was saw in 2015, we will be back in the shortages again and at that point, the lower quality products will all rush the market; that is when you might find exposures to trouble. High moisture content in salt, calcium chloride, magnesium chloride, and blends from product sitting outside and uncovered in many cases for the past 20 months will either cause caking and hardening which means lumps that you have to hand remove from application equipment to keep going, or worse frozen salt piles that are more like a truckload of cantaloupes than free-flowing road salt.

Do your homework on the products. Demand a certified full chemical analysis on any product and don’t accept verbal assurances without a written certification. If the corrosion proof CMA deicer you purchased destroys $100,000 of new concrete, make sure you are not all alone paying for that product liability problem out of your pocket.

Here we go again

“Here we go again”

That phrase can apply to a lot of things in life; positive things, negative things, but it always implies that it’s something with which you are familiar.

So when I open this edition of my State of the Salt Address with that phrase, you know it’s not going to contain a surprise and it does not.

We’re far from out of the woods on winter chemical supply balance across the board. Pretty much everything is challenged to meet demand.

I’ll start with the star of the show, bulk rock salt.

Bulk road salt

Last winter’s late arrival and unrelenting pounding into the population centers of the Central and Eastern US sucked up salt at record amounts in those markets.

Not all markets were pounded with record snowfalls like Boston and New England, but pretty much everyone had a taste of winter’s wrath.

So it should be no surprise that salt stockpiles were cleaned down to the floors in the suppliers, the municipalities, and the consumers.

While we were trying to reload those stockpiles in the late spring months of April through June, nearly all of those tons went right out the door to “refill and top off” municipal contracts where prices were all but guaranteed to rise in the next rounds of bidding.

Prices on bulk road salt are up in the shortest supply markets and only slightly up in markets where last year’s big price increases held.

It was late June before the salt industry started to build local stockpile inventories in earnest. The record warm winter in Europe coupled with a record solar salt harvest in China has put salt in a supply glut in the rest of the world therefore freeing up those tons to attack the US market. In addition, while ocean container freight rates have climbed in nearly obscene ways, bulk ocean rates are the lowest they’ve been in a decade which further enabled distant supplies to reach the US shores. Adding to this scenario is a very strong US dollar right now. As I write this, one US dollar is equal to $1.31 CDN, and 0.91 Euro where a year ago it was $1.06 CDN and $0.73 Euro.

The combinations of international currency exchange rates, low bulk ocean shipping rates, and warm winters in the rest of the world have combined in a perfect storm of TEMPORARY opportunity for foreign supplies. There are long-term reliable supply options and there are short term supply options.

If you choose to play in this arena, make sure you know the difference because the companies you compete with today with your new source may well become your only option when currency and weather normalizes and these supplies dry up and can’t leave their own shores. That’s the big picture globally on supply.

It’s straight forward, but many are lulled into a sense of false security by the thought of huge price differentials in the costs to buy and the current market to sell. My friend Malcolm Poole spent a lifetime in the salt business and he said to me a simple phrase that I’ve been careful to remember; “you want to collect the crumbs of opportunity the elephant drops but you must always be careful to not become toe jam on the elephant” Four companies dominate the US bulk salt supply. They are the elephants and newer suppliers may well find themselves under the foot of these elephants when things normalize.

I think normalizing is the key to all of this. What we are in right now is a temporary situation that is abnormal in weather, depleting supplies, and periods of intense demand. Salt is the most abundant commodity on earth, but it’s hard to store enough in any market to satisfy peak record demand times. Keep your relationship with the suppliers you’ve known for years even if it is a very reduced position. Burn that bridge now and when things flip the other way, you’ll look back with regret when you can’t get anything because currency and other conditions have taken the new supply players away.

Calcium chloride

Calcium chloride is sold in liquid and dry forms. Like salt, it has many uses from controlling dust in summer, to snow and ice in the winter, in brine systems for refrigeration and skating rinks, and more to my point in oil.

Calcium chloride is used extensively in energy markets as a completion fluid in oil drilling and as part of a formula for hydrofracking in gas markets. Those markets are currently nearly idle due to low cost oil from OPEC.

When oil production suddenly stopped in Alberta, Dakotas, and in the Permian Basin of Texas last winter, many tens of thousands of tons of calcium chloride were freed up for winter markets. And, that was global so there is plenty of calcium chloride available right now from all sources.

This is not going to last. Any number of scenarios could and likely will occur such as the calcium chloride equivalent of a run-on-the-bank where sudden mega orders deplete supplies and cause shortages. That happened from about this time last year right through the winter.

While we have new supplies from Russia, China, India, and Europe hitting the US shores right now, think about those currency exchange rates and price of a barrel of oil to know when it’s time to expect supply problems. OXY, the premier US manufacturer of calcium chloride is on open order right now; you can get all you want and following a totally empty pipeline from last winter, most people are not thinking about buying ice melters in the heat of summer but that is exactly what you should be doing. The first frost will change psyches and that’s when we usually see a run-on-the-bank for supply which in turn triggers order control and no product available. The early bird will get all the worms in calcium chloride in our view.

Magnesium chloride

Magnesium chloride sold in liquid and dry forms. Like calcium chloride, magnesium chloride has many uses from dust control, to snow and ice control, completion fluids for oil drilling and in hydrofracking. Unlike calcium chloride, magnesium chloride continues to be in a severe shortage.

The winter depleted all the stocks of magnesium chloride and two new market uses for this product are pulling significant quantities in a market that is severely oversold. Adding to this pain was a labor strike at Dead Sea Works who are the prime supplier of dry magnesium chloride pellets and flake to the US market.

While that strike lasted 4 months, the timing couldn’t have been any worse for the US market that uses MAG products. It came at the peak of record winter demand and never recovered. Their plant is still not fully operational, and while some of their MAG product is beginning to dribble in, demand outstrips supply by a wide margin. It will be a very challenging year for Magnesium Chloride dry products, and, at the present time, liquids seem to be mostly unaffected for supply.

Blended products

Blended deicers products are generally salt and something else. The something else component may be in quantities that are meaningful and, more often than not, amounts that are either insignificant or non-existent.

With the premium product shortages of calcium chloride and magnesium chloride, the fortified blended products with meaningful amounts of premium deicer are going to be much less available in the market this year. I’ve always advocated demanding a full disclosure of ingredients from the supplier and manufacturer for anyone using any product. What is to hide? A legitimate blend that has at least 3 percent, and as high as 20 percent magnesium chloride or calcium chloride will provide true performance and will be an excellent back-up option while pure premium packaged ice melters are in tight supplies or unavailable.

This is not a secret science nor is it something that has any reason to not disclose; they are simple chloride ice melters. Many claims of added premium ingredients in blends are false, and the only way in which to know for sure is to demand a certified breakdown of ingredients by percent weight. Any supplier who refuses to provide such evidence of what you are buying is not only in violation of federal and state right-to-know laws; it is just ethically wrong.

Be careful to know what exactly you are buying in blended products considering these shortages and don’t get tricked into buying dyed rock salt for three times value. Demand the breakdown information and a certified analysis from your supplier and if they refuse, ask what do they have to hide?

We provide legitimate blends and blends may be the only option for many this coming winter. We immediately took action last March when Dead Sea Works magnesium chloride facility went on labor strike to secure sufficient tons of magnesium chloride in order to build our TruMelt and ClearPath Winter Wizard inventories over the summer to be ready to ship these premium blends for the coming winter. Many waited until summer to try to find premium ingredient supplies only to learn there are none. Caveat emptor.

It’s 15° F and snowing and it feels like the salt you just put down took a vacation.

Salt is the least expensive and most abundant deicing material on the market. On a cost-benefit analysis salt is difficult to beat when considered against alternative materials. The performance of salt in its practical operating range above 25° F makes it an extremely cost effective solution in that temperature range. While materials such as calcium chloride and magnesium chloride are very effective to temperatures well below zero, these materials are considerably more expensive than road salt or rock salt. However, in temperatures below 25° F, the effectiveness of salt decreases dramatically. 

A reference from the Snowfighter’s Handbook published by the Salt Institute shows just how quickly salt’s effectiveness plunges with temperature:

Most experienced snowfighters know that the colder it gets, the more difficult it is to get salt to brine (form a solution from melting snow/ice), but few realize just how dramatically that performance drops off below 25°F.

At 30° F, 1 lb of salt will melt 46 lbs of ice. However, at 15° F that performance will drop by over 86%! Yes it is only about 13% as effective at 15 ° as it is at 30°. So what can be done about that?

The Marquette University Salt Study showed that pre-wetting salt, using a liquid brine to enhance and “jump-start” the brining process with snow, improved its performance at low temperatures. Pre-wetting has many advantages, but the costs of liquid application systems are expensive, require maintenance, and of course you have to have the liquid to fill the saddle tanks on the trucks.

In the 1990’s a series of boutique additives began to emerge that allowed a stockpile of salt to be treated with a performance liquid that had been modified with an additive that prevented the liquid from activating in order to enhance melting performance when applied at low temperatures.

The first product to the market for this was called IceBan and it was a distillation or brewing waste product. Many will remember the “beer smell” and brown liquids that were promoted in the 90s under the brand. The original IceBan (and Magic) patents for using the brewer’s condensed solubles have now expired and with the explosion of microbreweries, many municipal snowfighters are sourcing some of these liquid additives locally for free or nominal costs and adding them to their liquids and snow fighting arsenal.

We now have a way to envelop or encapsulate the salt particle with a premium chloride liquid such as calcium chloride or magnesium chloride.  When that particle hits the pavement, the premium chloride has a lower temperature performance and it will synergize the brining of the salt particle much like putting jumper cables on a dead or weak battery. It gets just enough kick to help the salt to start forming a brine thus increasing its effectiveness.

So how do you get performance at lower temperatures without the cost of using all calcium chloride or magnesium chloride? You use our treated or pre-wetted salt, commonly referred to as Magic Salt or treated salt. We encapsulate each particle with a patented mixture of molasses and magnesium chloride which together will provide the advantages of pre-wetting without activating until it is applied to the surface and exposed to snow and ice.

To learn more about our performance products and how to maximize the performance of the salt you use, give us a call at 508-520-3900 or send us a note on our Contact page.

THE PERFECT STORM – An industry still recovering

As Yogi Berra famously said; “it ain’t over until it’s over”.

With regards to the painful salt and premium deicer supply shortages that began last December, they are not over.   On-going challenging resupply scenarios continue to impact the market and those who have been complacent will be stunned when they find there is little or no road salt available right now.  It is, for the most part at least, a predominately regional problem; some areas will have barely ample supplies and some will have painfully short supplies.

The deicer industry overall is not on solid ground at all and significant problems continue with the supply chain logistics across all product groups and road salt in particular.   While Europe saw their warmest winter, in 2013/2014 North America saw a very cold, long, and hard winter not experienced in decades which drained all supplies.  NOAA, the government weather service recorded the coldest winter ever on record for much of the US.   The details of the then impending road salt supply collapse were published in my December 2013 State of the Salt newsletter, and recapped again in the spring newsletter.  Many of our customers and partners took heed and acted quickly to protect themselves as our stockpiles were nearly out.  Early commitments on the heels of last winter had us delivering next winter’s supplies before the ‘13/’14 winter was even over and we have not had any break on re-supply with strong unrelenting demand from the market.   As we enter August, people will be shocked to find that they may not be able to get anything.

ROAD SALT

The signs of continuing trouble are now confirmed with statewide contracts finding no bidders interested in committing to supply beyond spot market and what we have today.  Two prominent states went out to bid for over one million tons of salt and did not get one offer or taker where they’d typically have half dozen or more.  They were not prepared for that and are now scrambling to determine how to manage supplying their states with salt.   Jefferson County IL also found no bidders for their annual supply contract offered in July, and took the only offer they had at twice the price for just 600 tons.   Their costs jumped from $60/ton to $117/ton and this scenario is now repeating itself in regions all over the country.   Throughout the Midwest, road salt prices are ranging as high $140/ton if you can even get anyone to commit to supply.  When statewide bids go off with no offers, that is a good indication things are so oversold that the producers are keeping their options open while they run wide open to fill their existing commitments.  Pricing will be impossible to predict because there is little or no product available on the open market right now.

In the central US, road salt supplies are in dire straits and will not improve.   The Western US, while not huge users of road salt relative to other regions, will feel the supply pinch as the producers west of the Rockies struggle to service their customers east of the divide and take advantage of a high priced market.  In the South and Eastern US we do not yet know if that string of ships arriving from places as far away as the Chile and Morocco will have enough product to refill a totally drained pipeline and supply chain. The entire road salt supply system was broom clean nationwide at the end of the winter.  Now, we are still struggling to recover in the midst of record demand, high fuel costs, gummed up and slow rail movements, and, high water disrupted river traffic, all have combed into the perfect storm to hamper restocking efforts.

Adding to the re-supply pain for the salt industry overall was the fact that nearly all the tons produced through the spring that would normally be intended for stockpile rebuilding ended up going into still open municipal contracts and filling up their salt sheds on last year’s price.    Speaking of price understand that salt and premium deicers are commodities and accordingly they will fluctuate in pricing based on supply and demand.   Right now, supplies are short – very short – and the demand is high – very high – so do the math yourself.   They key is not how much does it cost, the key is can you get it now, and more importantly in winter if you need to reload?

Road salt mining operations and premium deicer production have been running at full capacity.  Europe’s warm winter made supplies held for Europe available to the North American market, but these are generally a different specification (much finer gradation) and not suitable for the application methods of the North American market.  The road salt shortage is more a logistical problem and less a resource problem.   There’s plenty of salt in the ground and in the world, but refilling a system with substantially more than the entire system has taken ever before is proving to be stiff challenge.   Many southern US cities whose snow normally melted on contact, were paralyzed by a series of polar vortex deep freeze snowfalls and they now are attempting to build stockpiles they never had before; further pinching the system. Adding to the challenge is the fact some of the US salt mines near population centers that have been in operation for more than 50 years are  manmade caverns in the earth and some of these are in a state of convergence.  That is serious business and has caused mines to suddenly close permanently.   One of the more sensational salt mine collapses happened November 20th 1980 in LA where a mine operating since 1918 collapsed at Lake Peigneur and the video documentary story of that is worth viewing if you are interested.  The point is that while worldwide we have plenty of salt, regionally, we may see additional problems  as mines relied upon for decades might suddenly go off line; it does happen.

PREMIUM DEICERS

Calcium chloride and magnesium chloride products are no better off than road salt at this point.  All producers worldwide are essentially completely sold out resulting from the high costs of fuel and energy where those products play critical roles in the energy development and harvesting.  OXY, the sole US manufacturer of calcium chloride pellets, continues order management and allocation with their Peladow calcium chloride pellet product at least through year end.  Flake calcium chloride, at least as of the time I’m writing this, is still available without limit, but that will surely change as panic buying spikes demand.   Magnesium chloride producers worldwide are also sold out completely.   The Dead Sea magnesium chloride production has been reduced for unknown reasons, and logistics are disrupted.  DSW’s MAG Pellets are also on very snug order control indefinitely.  Premium deicer pellets are preferred in packaged products and they are going to be in very short supply for the foreseeable future.   You will have to be understanding and willing to work with alternatives until these challenges and problems are able to sort themselves through.   We have options but you need to talk to your sales representative about what is available in premium products.

Don’t be misled by any claims of ample supplies of these materials; they are in extremely tight supply and any weather related sudden pull will extinguish the hand to mouth inventories we’re trying desperately to build up but cannot due to unrelenting demand.   The best products are always the first ones to go so know that if you’ve not made commitments on premium products by now, you’re in more trouble than you might think.

WEATHER

I’ve often pondered that if I could predict the weather accurately I could rule the world.  I don’t put a lot of stock in long range forecasts, and based on my own experience with short range forecasting, they are not a whole lot better for anything other than general trends.  With that said, most if not all of the weather prognosticators are lining up and singing the same tune albeit not necessarily in harmony; it’s going to be another challenging winter with anything but warm weather in the snowbelts.  Matthew Holliday’s First Hand Weather suggests a repeat of last year.  Joe Bastardi, who has been frighteningly accurate in most of his predictions, also is calling it above average snowfall for the snow belts, and goes so far as to predict VA, NC, TN, WV, and MD as winter battle zones.   For my hometown of Boston and the northeast US, and for the Great Lakes region, he’s calling it above average snow and below average temps.   Again, from my perspective, long range forecasting like this is a guessing game with complex computer modeling and I personally have found a dart board to be equally accurate.  There is a lot of chatter about a strong el Niño and that has in the past resulted in above average snowfall for most of the US snowbelt.  For what it’s worth, my dart board concurs with the weather prognosticators.

SUMMARY

I think there’s just no question that a lot of people will be left short and without ample supplies so the weather will be the key.  Use professional and other weather forecasting at your own peril.   A warmer ocean should mean the snow belt population centers of the East Coast will be slow to start, but that concept is in sharp contrast to what the “expert” forecasters are saying.   Road salt will not recover this year if there is any snow; there is just no question about that from our viewpoint.   Again, remember that the challenges in road salt are largely regional, with heartland America far and away in the worst shape, however the snowbelts and population centers of the East Coast and Northeast are also not entirely safe.  We are loading our warehouses with packaged melters and building our bulk salt and treated salt stockpiles now with products, however product is going out about as fast as its coming in so please be patient and allow us time to cover everyone’s needs.

Since I opened with a quote I’ll close this edition of the State of the Salt Newsletter with a quote:  “Cheer up, things will get worse”

Robert S. English

President

By Rob English

Originally featured in Snow Magazine

When spring arrives, the snow fighter faces a large workload of preparing the winter maintenance equipment for a long summer’s nap, cleaning up any winter kill, and, responding to a series of questions and complaints from the property owners on the efforts put forth over the winter months. Inevitably, the topic of concrete damage will come up. Concrete damage from winter snow operations generally comes in two forms; impact/scrape damage from mechanical contact such as loader buckets and snow pusher edges colliding with curbing or scraping the surface, and, spalling damage.

Spalling damage is common in concrete and most of the time it is caused by substandard concrete. While the concrete in the truck that is poured in place is usually within specification, the art of properly installing, floating, and burping the air from the concrete varies widely amongst installers. When we see spalling damage, most often it presents as a loss of the top surface area down to the aggregate as shown in the photo below. Sometimes it looks like someone took a shotgun to the sidewalk and lots of small “blast craters” appear, and sometimes it is widespread and wholesale failure of the surface.

To understand how spalling damage happens, first know that it is generally NOT a chemical attack. In some rare cases such as high dolomite concrete mixes, there is evidence to suggest that those concrete mixes may be susceptible to magnesium compounds of all types whether they are fertilizers or ice melter. But that is the exception by far and not the rule and it appears to be limited only to a small area of Iowa based on just one report. Far more common is freeze:thaw related spalling damage whereby brines formed by melted snow enter the air pockets of the concrete and refreeze when temperatures drop below the freezing point of the brine overnight. When water or brines freeze, just like the ice cubes in your refrigerator’s freezer tray, they expand. If they are trapped inside an air pocket void and expand when they freeze, then those brines will displace the concrete shell holding them back.

I was called in to analyze a complaint on spalling damage to a concrete floor that was claimed to be from deicers a number of years ago in the Baltimore, MD area. I went to look at the site and the damage that was evident was typical spalling damage, but what was curious about it was that the spalling failure was very deep and crater like; almost like a little volcano. The investigation was involved and included a number of parties and when we finally found the root cause, it was pretty stunning: The concrete company that made the concrete had a bulk pneumatic trailer that they used to pick up bulk concrete. They had made a deal with a local limestone company to haul bulk quicklime to a site near where they picked up concrete and the same truck would haul quicklime up and concrete back without any washout. The concrete was contaminated with small bits of quicklime which attacked the concrete chemically and caused deep pock spalling. That is a rare incidence of chemical derived spalling but as snow-fighters it is also important to remember that while our DNA might be at the crime scene, we are not always the one who caused the problem.

Some of the things that the snow removal contractor should do is to become alert to recognizing places that may be susceptible to spalling before the winter even begins and point them out to the property owner in advance. Areas of new concrete, and many of the newer high end colored stamped concrete surfaces all can be more susceptible to damage than well established concrete.

In addition to areas of new concrete, be vigilant to recognize subtle signs of failure underway which may be exacerbated by the snow-fighter’s work with deicers such as what you see in the photo below:

On first glance, these steps might appear to be solid, and they should be since they are well over 20 years old. However if you look closely you can see streaks of rust. Concrete doesn’t normally show rust unless the reinforcing bar and concrete matrix are failing; and that is exactly what is happening with these steps.

Right now they are stable, but if you look closely at them you will see a significant crack running the length of the steps that has opened the concrete below to accept all the melted brine from winter maintenance and it is just waiting to fill up with fluid, refreeze, and blow the front corner of these steps off. As the snow removal contractor is charged with keeping these clear, he will also be blamed for the failure that is immanent.

Spalling damage comes in a few forms; as small pock marks that look like someone took a shotgun to the concrete surface, and sometimes as widespread wholesale destruction of as section of the entire surface. Your concrete installer doesn’t want to hear that it’s his problem, which in my professional opinion it actually is most of the time. He doesn’t want the liability of replacement saddled upon him, so normally the source of concrete damage becomes the commercial equivalent of the children’s game “hot potato” where the buck is passed quickly in an attempt to dodge responsibility for the problem. The image below shows spalling failure in a structural concrete matrix with re-bar first taking on brines to start the rot and then freeze-thaw damage causes whole chunks to fall. This is how bridges are adversely affected by chloride based and corrosive deicers.

The key to managing complaints about concrete damage is to avoid becoming entrapped by it. Survey the property carefully and look for areas of new concrete, or places where concrete is obviously susceptible to damage; areas that have new concrete, replaced and/or repaired areas are all going to be more likely to suffer from the freeze-thaw spalling damage until the concrete is at least two years old. After that, it’s a matter of the quality of the concrete and installation that will play a significant role in whether or not it shows damage. Applying a sealer to new concrete helps a great deal.

The world of concrete sealers has improved a great deal in the past decade or two and often, commercial concrete sealers will ward off any opportunity for spalling damage in concrete provided they are applied in accordance with the manufacturer instructions.

In summary, concrete spalling damage most of the time is a mechanical attack that is totally preventable. In my experience communication is the key to effectively side-stepping blame for concrete damage when deicers are suspected. Remember that when brines or water freeze, they expand and that is what causes most spalling damage.

Most importantly, understand that some deicers are less likely to inflict hard freeze-thaw cycles than others as it relates to this type of problem. The Federal Highway Administration conducted testing on salt, calcium chloride and magnesium chloride for freeze thaw damage following multiple cycles. The results are available on our website or by searching the internet for SHRP Report C-391

CMA is calcium magnesium acetate and it is the product of choice and most often recommended for new concrete, structural concrete as found in elevated walkways and parking garages, and in places with salt prohibitions. It is 100% calcium magnesium acetate and it is safe for new concrete and it does work. However, a small portion of CMA mixed with salt provides no corrosion benefit whatsoever, and tests have proven that benefits from CMA do not begin until it is at least 20% of the blend, and really the number is closer to at least 40% for meaningful benefit. The PNS and Clear Roads corrosion study is about to be released and it confirms that CMA is a good product. Adding a pinch of CMA to a bag of salt however, is no more effective at corrosion than adding a pinch of gasoline to a tank full of water is at running your car. Remember to demand a certified analysis of any deicer that you are buying or using on new concrete because we get calls every day from people that have unwittingly purchased a blend of salt with a pinch of CMA thinking that it is safe for their new concrete only to find out too late that they were duped by deceptive labeling. Watch for a future article on this topic that will contain some startling details about the fraud of CMA in packaged deicers.

You can always use straight abrasives such as sand on any new concrete and minimize the likelihood of spalling no matter what the quality. If deicers must be used, then it is important that the owner of the new or susceptible concrete understands the risks associated with freeze point depression deicers and freeze-thaw cycles.

Saltpocolypse 2013/2014 – What happened?

For the past four decades of my professional life, I’ve been involved in the production and distribution of winter deicing chemicals.   In the 70s, we brought in rail cars upon rail cars of packaged products over the summer months because we knew that the seasonality of demand meant that what we could get easily in the summer, could not be obtained so easily in winter due to high demand “in-season”.   That was the old standard; load up in the off season and hope you make it in-season.

In more recent years, and in particular the last half-decade, a combination of weather, increased product choices, increased channels of distribution, and, market complacency driven by recent warmer light snowfall years have all combined in a perfect storm of conditions to make the market believe it can be serviced effectively from storm to storm with on-demand purchases after it snows.   That works only as long as it doesn’t snow frequently and the weather is relatively tame.

Beginning in the December of 2013, a series of nationwide snow and ice storms that ranged from Dallas TX north to the Canadian border and east to the Atlantic ocean created a tsunami of demand for deicers of all shapes, sizes, and types across the entire country.   Quickly the existing meager inventories which were maintained as a result of the statements in the paragraph above were depleted and  reloads were ordered.  That strained the system in early December and many suppliers that rely on overseas sources for product where 8-15 week lead times are common were quickly drawn down to zero.  Adding to this was a reduced appetite for risk (taking inventory) at both the distribution channels and producer facilities matching the market’s reduced appetite for risk.

As December 2013 continued, so did the weather with four nationwide snow events before Christmas creating on-going deicer demand at record levels.   As I write this, it is 6PM on January 14 and the last pieces of the remaining inventories of all ice melters on a Nationwide scale are either gone, or nearly gone for the balance of the 2013/2014 winter season.    Bagged goods were the first to go and while deicer packing plants have been running wide open, they cannot package quickly enough to recover and fill the pile of backorders waiting.   This was further aggravated by two mid-week holidays back to back in Christmas and New Years followed by a Nor’easter blizzard that blanketed New England and the mid Atlantic with heavy snow following the New Year’s shutdown.   That snow was then followed by a Polar Vortex that crippled truck fleets and delivered record low temperatures to all 50 states.     Now the perfect storm for complete collapse of the system is set, and as the orders come in to the channels of distribution, and customers are told that lead times will be weeks, in a panic they order elsewhere in a vain attempt to get covered more quickly.  But this has the opposite of the desired effect and only sends false signals to the supply side further deepening the shortages.  Thousands of many double orders for the same customer from multiple sources make one truckload of need appear to be four or more.

This past week, the largest salt mine in the world was unable to ship product for days from a combination of truck traffic problems and ice in the harbors and lake that blocked salt ships from getting loaded until the Coast Guard ice breaker ships cleared these critical navigation channels.   This is the final straw that breaks the camel’s back.

What happened you ask?  It’s really quite simple from my viewpoint; Al Gore wasn’t entirely correct and the market bought into the concept of warmer winters and therefore reduced inventories to only one or less storm’s worth as adequate.    When those markets experienced on-going back to back events over a period of weeks, they strained the system to the breaking point and now we all await the arrival of the cavalry in the form of reloaded inventory from a system that is totally tapped out.

This is not unique to any one product.  It is across the board in all products but in particular, premium melters were the first fall because they were the only products which actually performed in the intense cold temperatures of the polar vortex.  While premium products are a fraction of the market demand, they are 100% of the demand when temperatures are 15F or colder.   We experienced a sub 10 degree heavy snowfall at our Boston headquarters last Friday which was the first sub 25F degree storm that we have seen in this region in over a decade.   While cold temperature snow happens every day in high altitudes, it is unusual for our ocean front region but the conditions allowed it and delivered it.

Make no mistake about this: a full recovery this year is not possible.  Even if it stopped snowing now, January 15^th, across the entire country, the back-log of demand and orders is too great and buyers will need to make-do with whatever they have on hand now and hope for the best.

Going forward, all reading this article should take a page out of the municipal markets playbook:  Most municipalities keep a minimum of five storms of inventory on hand to start the season.  As demand pulls that down, they reload and constantly replenish knowing that it might take two or three more storms before the reloads from the first storm arrive.   If the demand gets too strong, then the supply community will abandon the private contractor “spot” market to focus on fulfilling only municipal contracts where failure to perform carries stiff contract breach penalties.

If you rely on your salt supplier to cover you when things get tight, and you do not have a contract and a significant inventory position in your own faciity, you can expect to be a victim of this scenario.    Nobody wants to talk about this but I will; the next major potential problem and issue for the deicing chemical industry is having the government taking over private contractor supplies and allocating it out as government sees fit.    This has happened in the past, though not for the past fifteen or so years that I can remember, and if it starts snowing hard across the nation again soon, it is all but guaranteed that private industry will be the first excused from the party.  So prepare now accordingly.  Sand may well be your only option before this winter is over.

Want to talk about how to avoid all of this?  Call us after the season is over and let us help you strategically position your business so as to minimize this potential.    As my father said to me when I was in the trouble one time as a teenager; “Cheer up….things will get worse” and they will.

Robert S. English, President

We are pleased to share this May 28, 2013 article from Forbes website which echoes our view on Global Warming and sunspots; a subject you will find in nearly every state of the salt address we’ve published since our beginning.

The science is coming together that strongly indicates that the last act of global warming is melting of the polar caps which then flood the arctic oceans with cold fresh water and change equatorial current patterns such that they drive them back towards the equator and set up the start of the next phase; global cooling.   Read the report here:

To the Horror of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling is Here

(Forbes.com)

No regulatory oversight in “green claims” make buying an environmentally appropriate ice melt the commercial equivalent of buying liver pills at a carnival.

The desire to “go green” continues to gain momentum in ice melt products.  The lack of any rules governing label claims complicates decision making.  The growing desire to achieve environmentally compliant certifications coupled with increased “green” awareness is driving demand for Earth-friendly deicing products.

Normally, a quick glance at a label or a review of certifications is all that is necessary, however, the claims and endorsements of a green label can be confusing where there is no regulatory oversight or penalty for deliberate deceptions.

There are no firm government regulations that regulate when the term green can be used in promotional materials, product names and packaging, and, more often than not the seals and certifications on labels are nothing more than a self-appointed approval by the seller.

The Ice Melt Industry

Because the bulk and packaged ice melt industry is largely unregulated, there’s nothing to prevent a manufacturer from; adding small traces of premium deicer additives to basic rock salt and claiming greater environmental benefits; creating a unique symbol that implies eco-friendliness; including “green” or “environmentally friendly” in the product name — or making other misleading marketing claims without providing any scientific form of validation.

Ice melt manufacturers may use these terms to merely indicate that packaging is made from recycled material or that the product contains green coloring, whereas consumers may interpret these terms to mean that the product is beneficial to the environment in some way.

Other products that truly are environmentally friendly, substantiate their claims with the manufacturer’s own research and/or third-party certifications.  Obviously, third party certifications from government agencies or academia are usually the best assurance.

While environmental claims are often more subjective than performance claims, they should be quantifiable in some way, such as through fewer chemicals introduced into the environment or other means.  Again, these facts must be clearly spelled out and independent sources identified in order to substantiate the claims.

How can ice melt users pick the products that can make a positive difference?

To help protect businesses and consumers against misleading marketing claims, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has issued the Green Guides that give general guidelines for corporations to follow when making claims that their products are environmentally friendly.  While the rules are started and are very broad, something is better than nothing but still we lack the enforcement arm from the government to bring violators to task.

Green Guides was first published in 1992, updated in 1998 and is currently undergoing further updates.

Proposed changes can be viewed on www.FTC.gov but, in general, the Green Guides essentially states that marketers should not make environmental benefit claims without the appropriate substantiation in place to prove them and that claims should be limited to a specific benefit, with clear and prominent qualifications.

Substantiation may require scientific evidence, tests, analyses, research, quantification or other validation.

Marketing claims should also specify whether they refer to the product, the packaging or both.  Be sure to understand this important difference.  CMA, calcium magnesium acetate is LEED certified.  However, putting 0.00001% CMA on salt is not.  Only 100% CMA is going to pass the test and not destroy the new concrete.

What To Look For

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Design for the Environment (DfE) certification is perhaps the best and most widely known validation for the environmental claims of ice melt products.  Adding a small amount of a DfE approved material to salt however, does not magically transform the salt to DfE.  The certified chemical breakdown of ingredients is the only way to know.

The DfE symbol means that the EPA’s scientific review team has thoroughly screened the material for potential environmental harm and determined that it contains “only those ingredients that pose the least concern among chemicals in their class.”

Product manufacturers who pass the DfE’s strict certification requirements earn the right to display the DfE logo on their recognized products.  Increasingly today, marketers and manufacturers are applying small amounts of DfE products to celebrate the logo on the label even though it has little or no benefit at these low levels.

Another certification agency worth noting is Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED), which uses a suite of rating systems for the design, construction and operation of high-performance green buildings, homes and neighborhoods.

Developed by the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), LEED is intended to provide building owners and operators with a concise framework for identifying and implementing practical and measurable green building design, construction, operations and maintenance solutions.

Although few deicers are currently LEED-certified, demand for environmentally friendly ice melt products will surely grow the number of certified products.

Here’s What Matters

What is the key takeaway for maintenance and sanitation professionals?  When it comes to ice melt, finding the terms “green” or “environmentally friendly” should be the beginning of your investigation, not the end.  Look for some type of claim substantiation or quantification, either from the manufacturer or from a reliable third-party.

Manufacturers who have gone through the effort to secure scientific data that substantiate or quantify their claims — or have passed the rigors of a third-party validation — will be eager to share that information on their packaging and promotional materials.  Manufacturers and products which claim “secret formula” or are unwilling to comply with the Federal Right-To-Know laws providing a detailed list of ingredients should be avoided.   Most legitimate deicer manufacturers will provide a certificate of analysis on any product they offer.  This is a detailed breakdown of ingredients that is certified by the producer as true.

Bottom Line

Request a certificate of analysis for any product offered if you’re unsure.  This will provided a full chemical breakdown of ingredients and will quickly allow the consumer to determine whether they are buying fiction or facts.

MeltSnow.com is ready to provide a certificate of analysis on any product we offer to any customer.   We have nothing to hide and your representative will work with you to get the right products specified for your facility to meet both safety and environmental needs.   Snow and ice control is our business.  Let us help you find the right product.

The winter of 2011/2012 proved to be the warmest winter on record for the US and Canada and the fallout of that weather event will ripple through the salt and deicing industry for at least a couple of years.  The sole exception was Alaska who saw record snowfalls and cold.

SALT

There is a general belief in the marketplace that high inventory levels from the supply side will drive price wars and lower prices, however this fallacy is not to be embraced for too long.   The reality is that those record inventory levels of salt throughout the country have, for the most part, been on the ground for three quarters of a year or more and storing materials is an expensive venture no matter how it is managed.  The costs of the material, its transportation, the loading and unloading, and the storage are all stranded assets right now sitting under a tarp that is as tall as a four story building throughout major population centers in the snow belt.   Those costs increase each month when the rent check is due; so while one might expect to see salt providers dumping inventory through price reductions, any discounting and fire sale offers will be very short lived.  And, most major producers will avoid engaging in price wars which will only further erode thin margins on material that should have been sold last winter.

Supplies are plentiful and many salt mines are idle or operating at minimal rates currently awaiting the return of winter demand.   The Sifto Goderich, ONT facility, the largest salt mine in the world,  was hit with an F4 tornado a year ago that killed one worker and caused extensive damage.  Incredibly, Sifto got the mine back in operation in just weeks and were able to meet all of their contract commitments for last season.   In the spring of this year, they furloughed 400 workers for nearly two months as a result of very low demand coming off the winter of 2011/2012.   Today, just weeks after they went back to work, those workers have gone out on strike on the one year anniversary of the tornado.    We do not expect this strike to have any short term impact on the road salt market, and likely will have no impact on evaporated and other grades produced at that facility.   If this strike wears on for an extended period,  it likely would have some potential impact on the marketplace. Compass Minerals saw their 2nd quarter profits fall 32% as compared to Cargill whose profits plunged 82%, so the salt producers are anxious to see demand return and flush these high inventories.

Coming off the record low sales of last year, don’t expect producers to be giving away the store to move inventory; the damage of carrying costs is already done and the only way to stimulate sales at this point is with successive chemical intensive weather systems:  ice storms, light snow storms, and freeze/thaw patterns.  Accordingly, expect to see salt prices either up slightly or flat.  Flat or level pricing is a reduction in the net return for salt producers and coupled with spiraling fuel and diesel costs  will put a significant dent in profits this year where contractual delivered pricing without fuel escalators are in place.

If the winter weather comes back with a vengeance early, we could have some real problems.   The drought in the Mid-West has resulted in extremely low levels on the Mississippi, and that has interrupted and reduced barge traffic.   The barges which would typically be hauling corn and grain belt commodities down to ships in New Orleans and then reloading with salt to take up river are virtually non-existent.   Low water on the river coupled with the drought wiping out much of our corn and grain crops will reduce available barge traffic.   Ocean vessel bookings are substantially off as well.  So, while inventories are high, the wrong (or right depending upon your viewpoint) set of winter weather and demand circumstances could wreak havoc in the Midwest as the river system will not have the ability to quickly reload these stockpiles;  and,  if an early freeze sets in on the lakes coupled with heavy snow, we will see a spiraling price event like we witnessed a few years ago where salt prices tripled overnight.  So in this context, it is a house of cards that is totally subject to the weather timing and veracity.

There will be some discounting of old inventory from distributors and wholesalers on a spot basis, but for the most part without weather, products are not in demand and there is virtually no price low enough to move any appreciable inventory before the snow demands it.  Adding to upward price pressure are crushed profit margins at the producer level.

PREMIUM MELTERS

Magnesium chloride, calcium chloride, and acetates are in the same position as salt producers with inventories packed to the ceiling from last year.  At this time last year, nearly every weather pundit in the business was predicting a repeat of the previous 2010/2011 heavy snow year in the central US and Northeast US, so premium melter inventories were stacked up at the highest levels ever as the market was telling the supply side that they wanted to make sure that they were covered with sufficient inventories to meet the predicted demand – which never came.

Similar to road salt,  which is not quite as susceptible to caking due to the addition of YPS and the regulatory driven practice of covered piles, calcium chloride and magnesium chlorides are intensely hygroscopic which means they will draw water from anyplace they can get it, including the air.  This means that the 50 lb. bag of calcium chloride you bought last year might well be a 50 or 60 lb. paper weight of lumped and hard material.  It’s all dependent on the quality of the packaging.  We’ve seen multiple failures of packaging in calcium chloride from Asia; the bags and over-wraps are not UV resistant and they don’t use the best practices in packaging.  Some are woven poly bags with a “dry cleaning” type bag liner that is twisted into a gooseneck, then tied before the bag is sewn shut.   Be wary of all calcium chloride because there are tens of thousands of tons of calcium along the east coast from Asia that are hard as a rock.   The packaging for calcium chloride is a critical component that must be carefully examined for any signs that moisture is getting into it, or that it has been stored outside and the integrity of the package has begun to fail.    Caveat emptor to all buyers of imported calcium chloride whether pellets, flake, or granular.   Make sure you get a quality statement and warranty statement about the integrity of the material so if you happen to take in what you think is saleable product on a discount and find out later it’s not saleable,  you can get some form of restitution.  Know that there is a lot of left-over and distressed calcium chloride in the marketplace this year which went out to retailers, then didn’t sell, and was returned, or was never shipped at all and just sat on the docks exposed to the weather.

The exception to this caveat is domestic US production such as OXY Chem and Tetra Technologies who have been moving product at robust sales levels into the exploding Alberta oil industry.   Calcium chloride is used in oil drilling and that market has been very strong and continues to pull product strongly.  As a result, the calcium chloride products from OXY remain fresh and their unique packaging is designed for outside storage so when and if it is stored outside, you can buy with confidence from both a warranty and integrity viewpoint.

Magnesium Chloride

With only a handful of exceptions, nearly all the pure magnesium chloride products offered in the marketplace are packaged extremely well and are stored indoors.  These two factors ensure that the material you buy today will be of the same quality as just off the production line.  Always ask if something is stored inside or outside before purchase to be certain, and always demand a warranty statement from your supplier.

Acetates

Acetates are, like everything else, at their highest inventory levels.  This is a relatively small quantity when compared to stores of calcium chloride and magnesium chloride because the costs of acetates are 8 times the costs of the other products which tends to limit inventories.

Weather

Weather is always the wildcard and the sole demand stimulator.  Hard to predict accurately and,  like a cocktail party in a political convention, there are too many “professional” differing opinions to know which might be correct.   Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi, who amassed such an impressive track record leading up to last winter that he left Accuweather to form WeatherBell is repeating his prediction of doom and gloom from last year for the 2012/2013 winter along with many others.   The kick in the pants for all of us in the business that last year was the for the first time in memory, all of the weather pundits predicted a robust active winter mirroring the 2010/2011 record winter.

Remember that many deicing products are imported from countries that lie on the other side of the planet from the US.  Ships take months to book, load, and deliver, and containers take a minimum of four weeks to arrive on US shores from virtually any location and in the case of Asia, it’s closer to 8-10 weeks.   If the current inventories are quickly depleted, reloads are not going to arrive in time;  so it could be a very expensive winter to manage and particularly with the recent uptick in fuels.   One other factor is middle east instability; the middle east provides salt, magnesium chloride, and many other minerals to the US, and any political unrest or war with Iran would have a detrimental effect on shipping of these inexpensive commodities.

Overall, this is a short report when compared to my previous manifestos, but this report contains many components to help people make an informed decision as you approach the pre-season buying time.   The bottom line is if you see the weather coming together as the weathermen are AGAIN predicting, meaning early, hard, and fast winter snows, be prepared to hedge your position quickly because by the time these potential supply logistic disruptions arrive, it will be too late to cover with relief materials which are not there and are too far away to arrive in time to help.  As always, we advocate strong inventories to be confident of on-going supply in winter.   Just-in-time inventory management in deicers usually means “just-too-late”.

Rob English

President

I’m a follower of the book Super Freakonomics (the sequel to Freakonomics) which is a book about economic trends based on common sense observations.   This installment of my State of the Salt Newsletter contains my view of common sense observations as they relate to the deicing market and deicer supply lines.   As always, I try to include many hyperlinks to the sources of information I’m reading so you can read the same data and draw your own conclusions.

VOLATILE MARKETS:
When we think of volatile markets, we likely think of the stock market.  But in reality, any commodity market may be adversely impacted by volatility and we’ve seen this over the years in both salt and in premium deicers as fluctuations in supplies can be impacted by lots of different things that may not be so obvious; legal actions; embargos; weather; and demand.  Deicers are often overlooked for volatility, but make no mistake about the possibility of prices taking wild swings based on supply and demand.   As weather this month has already impacted salt production, and now Hurricane Irene is threatening to make a landfall on the Northeast US coast, understanding how these types of events might impact your supplies and suppliers of winter deicers is important.

WEATHER:
Weather is difficult to predict as evidenced by the weatherman who failed to see it snowing outside his studio window as he reported that the day would be clear.  I have been an outspoken opponent to the manmade greenhouse gas global warming theorists, so when NASA  starts agreeing with me, I feel like I’m not alone.

As much of North America is sweltering under record summer heat, and as the days since summer solstice grow ever shorter, don’t let those heat records skew your view and expectations of what the coming winter might bring.  It is my firm expectation that the pattern of weather we saw this past winter will continue.

It’s long been my belief that sunspots, solar activities, and the earth’s elliptical orbit and wobble have more to do with our climatic swings than anything we are doing from a fossil fuel burn standpoint.   Sure, we’re polluting the daylights out of our environment on a global scale, but the earth has been battling new things in its atmosphere for billions of years, and our tiny few hundred year window of pollution and moreover less than a century of significant changes in what is characterized as manmade greenhouses gases, are insignificant when compared to the historical world events of super-volcanoes, the Pacific “Ring of Fire” lighting up, or, a large asteroid impact that would turn the earth into a molten mass of gases.  Sound far-fetched?    Don’t be too fast to dismiss this.   Quoting from NASA’s recent press release: “The Sun is the primary force of Earth’s climate system. Sunlight warms our world. Sunlight drives atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Sunlight powers the process of photosynthesis that plants need to grow. Sunlight causes convection which carries warmth and water vapor up into the sky where clouds form and bring rain. In short, the Sun drives almost every aspect of our world’s climate system and makes possible life as we know it.”

So it is hard to deny that the sun is the driving force and main mechanism responsible for Earth weather.   On this basis, it seems only logical that our attention towards future weather expectations should be driven first by historical data we know about the sun, our current location within the elliptical orbit, and the sun’s activity as far as sunspots.   Now before you jump on the internet to blast me with hate mail, please take the time to simply study the data points that I am looking at and see them and interpret them with an open mind.  We humans are but a small grain of salt on a six lane highway in a blizzard in the context of the earth’s climate history.   Disbelieve it as you like, but the snow bound streets of Boston and London this past winter speak volumes that this might not be so far-fetched.

I think there are a lot of self proclaimed climate experts that seize and celebrate data that suits their own agenda and when these human equivalents of radio static continue to interfere with the signal, we the people are further confused and mislead about what is really going on.   It’s part emotional, part political, and part economic but make no mistake about it that each of the proponents of manmade greenhouse global warming have an agenda that is not entirely the weather.   Carbon credits for the City of London alone are in the range of $30 billion Euros per year!  One city.    So the Kyoto Protocol has derailed from a good faith effort to reduce pollution and acid rain into a massive trading industry driven by the almighty dollar.   As they say in those investigative news shows all the time; follow the money and you will find the crooks.

Now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, let’s take a stab at what to expect for the winter.   I am no better at predicting the winter to come than my dog, the Old Farmer’s Almanac, and NASA.   You can take what I think with a grain of …  never mind.   I watch sunspots and the sunspots are continuing to be very minimal and sun’s activity is nearly identical to that in the period of time that lead up to the last “mini ice age” of medieval times.  I believe that climatologically speaking, everything is cyclical and we are entering another cold cycle.  So from my view, I see more of the same as we saw last year: snow north, ice in the middle, and cold in the south; and in one case, the freeze ups in Texas last winter are now the same areas with 30 days over 100F.   This is no accident and I think it is a strong indicator that we are not going to get off lightly as far as winter weather goes.

SALT:
So with regards to the reason behind this newsletter, salt, we turn our focus to a developing scenario where weather and salt mines are entangled:  The F3 tornado that impacted Compass Mineral’s Sifto Salt Goderich ONT facility on August 21 is a big question mark.  As of this writing, it is too early to determine the extent of damage, but Compass is reporting significant damages to their above ground structures, evaporation plant, and below ground operations will not restart until repairs are made to above ground facilities.  Compass’ Goderich facility is the largest salt mine in the world with 9MM tons capacity and accounts for 66% of Compass’s total salt production.  The sole fatality in this event was the ship boom operator who was trapped under rubble that took more than 24 hours to remove.   This suggests that the damage is extensive and they might be down for an extended period of repair, rebuilding, and recovery.

This tornado could not come a worse time as pre-season demand is just beginning on the heels of a robust winter that depleted supplies of salt across the Northeast US.   It’s very hard to predict the results of this, but it safe to assume that the longer they are down the more impact that will have on salt supplies in the Upper Midwest US and Ontario.

We will continue to monitor this unfortunate event but we want to reassure our customers that we get no salt from Sifto; we are served by the sea in all stockpiles so the damage from this tornado will have zero effect on our current and future supplies for the coming winter.  Where we think this will create some pain is in the Upper Midwest and Ontario as other producers are tapped to pick up the shortfall while Compass is down for repairs.  If the damage is such that it is prolonged like the hurricane damage to Morton’s Inagua Bahamas facilities was a few years ago, then it could take Compass offline for much of the pre-season and that would have a very significant potential adverse impact on a broader scale as everyone scrambles to cover their shortfalls.  Speaking of hurricanes, it would appear as of this writing that the potential for hurricane Irene to impact the Eastern Seaboard is very real.  We still have a month or two of hurricane season left and this factor too can affect salt stockpiles that are arrive by sea and are stored at the ports.

The energy prices that killed us at the pump all year are still having a significant effect on salt prices because in North America, the majority of the cost of a ton of salt on the road is transportation in one form or another.   Thinking a bit more on the Goderich mine tornado damage, if plans to supply from Goderich have to be backfilled by supplies from farther away moving along the highway with $4/gallon diesel fuel, the potential for a quick run up on salt prices like we saw three years ago is definitely there.  On the basis of internet video shot by locals, it appears that the loading and storage areas have taken significant damage.  That being the case, those markets will see some sudden changes in both price and availability of product.  Stay tuned and start reading all that you can on this if you are serviced by the Sifto Goderich mine.

Bulk Salt: – Salt prices currently in our primary service zones (Eastern Seaboard) are flat on the heels of a record winter in the Northeast US.  It was an average winter in the Midwest, still an off winter in Canada, and a cold but manageable snow winter in the South.  A commodity trader would look at those factors and expect prices to rise, but they are not.  In fact they came down some and stand to come down a lot more if energy prices will back off their run-up.  Only time will tell but I continue to advocate the early bird getting the biggest and cheapest worms as far as bulk salt goes.  This is particularly true with each day that the Goderich mine is down.

Bagged Salt – Bagged salt is absolutely changing and as the push from the primary producers to limit sales of medium dried salt for bagging continues to choke off the supply side for local baggers and blenders, these companies will be using lesser quality salt (road salt in many cases) to bag and that will definitely been seen in the quality of what you get from non-producer product.  Again if the evaporation plant at Goderich was involved in premium medium dried salt for bagging, then an ugly supply situation could get very ugly quickly.

The salt producer community continues to limit the supply of the premium medium salt in bulk for bagging in what is likely a continued effort to drive those high net-back dollars to their own bottom line as opposed to selling it to baggers and letting them take $60/ton salt and put it in a bag to get four times the value for it.   This is pretty easy to understand.   In bagged salt this season, the key to supply will be driven by quality first, price second.  If you put price first, you’re going to be paying for a something that may likely deliver more headaches than performance.  What is the cost of your sidewalk spreader jamming up with big chunks?  What’s the cost of a broken window from the stray rock coming off your spinner?  What is the cost of slip and falls when these oversized particles fail to perform?  Before you commit to and buy bagged salt, ask for a sample of what you’re buying and retain it as the standard so you can go back on your supplier if they deliver something that doesn’t work or is different from what you agreed to buy.

PREMIUM DEICERS:
Premium deicers, which for the most part are either calcium chloride or magnesium chloride, are in fairly good shape on a broad scale.   Spot challenges with imported materials in some cases are going to show some Overall, just like we have advocated in salt and blended deicers, demand that your supplier gives you a full chemical breakdown of what you are buying.   There’s a lot of liver pill salesmen out there offering things that lack the chemistry to be “equal” to other products, so don’t let anyone fool you into assurances that have no backup guarantee.

Calcium chloride – Calcium chloride still reigns supreme in the premium deicer market as the overall winner for performance across a broad range of temperatures.   However, just like salt, there are lots of different qualities of calcium chloride and a 74% pellet from China will not outperform a 92% pellet from Michigan – that is just simple chemistry of 74% active calcium chloride horsepower versus 92% active calcium chloride horsepower.   Always demand a certified statement of ingredients, the name of the manufacturer, and know that you are getting what you think you are supposed to be getting.

Magnesium Chloride – Magnesium chloride for snow and ice comes basically only in one flavor: 100% MgCl2 hexahydrate.   The anhydrous magnesium chloride is too reactive for use in any applications other than industrial so for the most part, all forms such as flakes, crystals, pellets, granular, and pastilles of magnesium chloride are hexahydrate.  There are definitely quality differences between products so know how that affects your needs.   We have many tens of thousands of tons of magnesium chloride in our warehouses and en route to the US from overseas, and this growing segment of our market continues to be very robust as more people discover the advantages of this very safe deicer.

SUMMARY:
In summary, supplies of salt and premium deicers are fair as of this writing, however as pointed out in my newsletter a combination of the wrong factors at the right time could tip the scales unfavorably very quickly.  As always at this time of year, we strongly encourage early buying for the lowest prices and best supplies.   The closer we get to winter, the more supplies will diminish and prices will climb.

Keep your eyes on the weather and think in “Freakonomics” terms about the implications of any severe weather on salt supplies, and particularly harbors where these supplies are delivered and stored.  Take any one critical supply point out of play on the East Coast coupled with Goderich being down for any extended period, and things will get ugly and costly quickly in bulk and packaged deicers.

MAG is less irritating to the skin. MAG, unlike calcium chloride, is not noticeably exothermic (generates heat) when it first comes in contact with moisture. Magnesium chloride is unlikely to irritate the skin or burn the skin when it contacts moist skin surfaces.

MAG corrodes metal surfaces less. Tests show MAG to be significantly less corrosive than calcium chloride and sodium chloride on both tin and aluminum.

MAG is safer around vegetation. When used as directed, MAG is safer to use around plants and bushes. In fact, magnesium chloride is used as an ingredient in some fertilizers.

MAG is safer on concrete. Tests by the Strategic Highway Research Program, Washington D.C., using 3% solutions (representative dilution of ice melting brines) show that calcium chloride caused 26 times and sodium chloride caused 63 times the amount of concrete spalling than MAG.

MAG is safer for use around animals and humans. MAG is much less toxic than calcium chloride, potassium chloride and sodium chloride based on data provided by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. In fact, a form of MAG is used as a mineral supplement in some farm animal feedstocks.

MAG is environmentally friendlier. On a pound for pound basis, MAG contains approximately 22%, 29%, 39% and 43% less chlorides than potassium chloride, calcium chloride 77%, calcium chloride 90% and sodium chloride respectively, while still maintaining its high performance level. The application of MAG results in significantly less chloride runoff and pollution than potassium chloride, calcium chloride and sodium chloride.

MAG Environmental and Safety Considerations (PDF)

Getting Started

There are an infinite variety of blends of footing materials that are used in indoor equestrian riding arenas.  The common problem in all footings is that they start out great but over time quickly develop nuisance dust because the footing is pulverized by the hoof action of constant riding and pounding.

Footing compositions are a very individual thing.  Some may prefer a “Palomino” mix of sand and stone dust, while others want a blend of wood, sand, and stone dust, with crumb rubber or chip rubber and sand.  There is no limit to the formulas of footings for each individual facility.  The common denominator is that over time they all break down, and dust becomes a problem.  Even rubber products will break down and eventually become airborne dust particles.  Hunter Jumper arenas want footings that are firm but cushy while dressage arenas want a highly consistent footing with about 2-3 inches of loose footing on the surface.  Each of these materials presents different potential dust problems.

The Problem

The US Department of Labor has some staggering statistics about the ill effects of dust and respiratory illnesses caused by it.  Nearly every riding arena has sand of some type somewhere in it; either as part of the subsurface or base, or as part of the footing itself.  Sand contains silica, an OSHA listed human lung carcinogen, exposure to which leads to silicosis, an incurable lung disease that is caused by inhalation of airborne silica, or sand.  Wood fibers also are a very real lung health problem.  Consider that when the maximum permissible dust levels in the average woodshop are exceeded, OSHA or local health authorities are not only permitted but are required by law to shut down the facility until the dust is mitigated.  Most arena owners are oblivious to the fact that they might be violating air quality laws.

The Solution

While there are many sources of dust, all dust is the result of the material becoming so finely pulverized that it can become airborne and consequently inhaled.  The easiest way to mitigate dust problems is with the addition of water to weigh down the fine particles and prevent them from floating in air.

Water is a viable solution (pun intended) for dust problems in many areas, but it does not come without costs.  You must have the water or purchase it, then dispense it with a sprinkler system, and then that sprinkler system must be maintained, which means pumps, pipes, hoses, and potential plumbing problems.

Enter MAG, a proven humectant or hygroscopic agent that draws in moisture naturally.  MAG is an ultra pure form of magnesium chloride that is harvested from the Dead Sea, a source of life giving minerals.    MAG will draw in water and then hold it at an impressive rate.  One pound of MAG can hold up to four times its weight in water under ideal conditions.  MAG will draw in moisture continuously and indefinitely and suppress dust permanently in any type of footing in any indoor arena.

Method

Applying MAG to an indoor ring is all art and a little science.   Recognizing that footings are very individual, the objective in all footings is to maintain a consistent level of loose material to provide the desired amount of give.

Do Not Water!!!

The worst thing that you can do when using MAG is to water your ring.  Once you commit to using MAG, it is very important that all watering for dust control is halted following the first application.  The reason is simple: You are applying a dust control agent at the surface, and gravity and hoof action will help it to penetrate the footing, coat all the particles of footing and hold them down on the arena floor where you want them.  By watering after you have applied MAG, you are rinsing the product off the top and into the subsurface.

How Much MAG do I need?

The amount needed varies depending upon the size of your ring, the footing composition, and depth, but generally speaking we find that the average indoor arena will need 2 to 4 pallets of our MAG to achieve complete dust stabilization and freeze-proofing in the average 75’ x 150’ indoor with all sand footing.  Once the ring is completely stabilized you NEVER need to water again.  In fact, watering the ring after it is stabilized with MAG is counterproductive and rinses the MAG down into the base away from the surface where dust emanates.   Typically, a maintenance dose of 25% of the initial stabilization quantity is needed annually to cover new dust fines from the footing generated from normal use.  Small or private low volume facilities may not need any touching up for years.  It all depends on your traffic load and commitment to grooming the surface as well as picking up manure which is a significant source of dust in most arenas.

Is MAG Safe to Use?

MAG is very safe to use and handle.  The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) uses a document called a “Material Safety Data Sheet” (MSDS) to standardize information about all materials.  On this form OSHA uses an industry standard for toxicity called an “LD50”, which is the amount of material that is required to kill at least 50% of the test subjects.  While this is a morbid thought, it is the standard that the government has established and is recognized industry wide.   The LD50 for strychnine, a rat poison, is 16 (milligrams per kilogram of body weight).  The LD 50 for aspirin and calcium chloride is 1000 mg/kg.  The LD50 for table is salt 3,000, and the LD50 for MAG is 8,100!  That means that MAG is 2.5 times less toxic than table salt, is about half as toxic as baking soda and is very comparable to vitamin C, ascorbic acid.

How long will MAG last?

MAG will last forever, or until you wash it away with water or add new footing.  If you have high organic materials in your footing, it will absorb the MAG and require more product and more maintenance.

How do I maintain my footing once it is fully stabilized?

This is the most important part of any successful program; Maintenance.  You change the oil in the tractor, the car, and grease and maintain all the other tools of horse management so why wouldn’t you also maintain your riding surface?   We recommend that you regularly groom your riding surface with either a tine harrow or other drag-type device which will pull the footing up and turn it over.  Even an old piece of chain link fence dragged behind a machine will smooth out and level the riding surface.  More often than not, the highest levels of dust are seen when grooming an untreated indoor ring.  The best grooming devices are ones which have “teeth” that will dig into the footing and fluff it and turn it over while smoothing it out at the same time.

So, regular grooming is the #1 way to properly maintain your indoor ring once it is treated for dust.  Next, a small maintenance dose of MAG to cover new dust fines which develop from on-going use, and, for use around the doorways or problem areas is recommended.  The average 100 X 200 indoor ring will take three pallets of MAG to fully stabilize and then one pallet of MAG per year to maintain.  Compare these costs to the costs of a sprinkler system and frozen footing in the winter.

Frozen Toes Made you close?

There is a side benefit to MAG stabilization that has not been mentioned:  freeze proofing your ring.  You will never again be forced to shut down in winter because the water saturated footing in your indoor froze up, and you could not ride in it because it is like a frozen moonscape.   MAG will keep the same consistency in your footing throughout the year including those sub-zero days when you were not able to ride because the indoor was hard as a stone.

Is MAG the same as the liquid stuff being offered?

No!  MAG is not a liquid; it’s dry flake form!  Recently, others have begun to try to capitalize on the enormous success of our MAG.  Some companies now offer a modified liquid product which appears to be a blend of unknown waste corn or agricultural chemicals and claimed to be mixed with an unknown source of magnesium.  Do not be mislead by others claiming to offer the performance of our MAG in liquid form.  It’s impossible to have the same performance of a dry product in liquid form, even if you were to liquefy MAG and then mix it with something else.   Only MAG offers our absolute performance guarantee for dust control in your footing.

ONLY MAG products have the benefit of experience of more than 20 years of use in Europe and New England.  These unknown liquids are new to the market, are unproven, and there is NO TOXICOLOGICAL DATA on them as to long term effects on equine health in legs and hooves over a long period of time.  Know what you are buying.  Our MAG is guaranteed to be 100% MgCl₂, hexahydrate while liquids chemically cannot contain more than 33% MgCl_2,.  There are NO agricultural or distiller’s waste products in MAG; it is a pure natural product that is extracted from the Dead Sea – a source of life giving minerals.   The costs of these liquids seem to average $0.15-$0.30/ft², which is equal to about $2000 per treatment and $3000 per year on the average indoor.  That is more than five times as expensive as MAG!    Don’t be fooled by impostors who are claiming to perform the same as our MAG!   

Nuts and Bolts – How to apply MAG

Think of applying MAG to your indoor as though you are fertilizing your lawn.  You want to get even, thorough coverage.  To do this we recommend the use of a broadcast spreader, or rotary spreader.  We have had excellent results using a Brinley 150 lb. spreader that Home Depot sells for less than $200.00.  It is mostly plastic with stainless steel knife gate and application adjustments.

Using a rotary spreader, fill the spreader to capacity and begin at the far end of the arena away from the “stockpile” of MAG.  Open the spreader up to full capacity (wide open) and then begin by making a checkerboard pattern going first north and south in your arena and then east and west over the same area in a checkerboard pattern.  When MAG is properly applied, it will look like it just snowed a light snow in the indoor.  You will immediately see MAG start to pull in moisture and dissolve into the footing.  This is what it’s supposed to do and what will control dust.  Contact us for an analysis on your footing to determine how much product is needed for your particular conditions.  Don’t try to go it alone.

To determine your square yards, take the width times the length divided by 9.   See the example below:

100’ wide times 200’ long = 20,000 square feet
20,000 square feet divided by 9 = 2,222 square yards

Realize that a treated ring needs some time to equilibrate or settle.  While the first day after the first treatment you may think that you are all set, we find that a week or two later dust may begin to break through a little as the fines underneath the surface begin to work up and need to be treated.  Typically a small maintenance dose of MAG is required from time to time to suppress new fines as they develop in normal ring use and around doorways and entries where rain may wash away some of the treatment, or where dirt and other sources of dust are dragged in to the arena.

Getting a proper analysis by one of our trained experts is vital to successful MAG use.   Footings which contain high levels of organic materials will require more MAG to stabilize than arenas that are 100% mineral such as sand, blue stone, stone dust, etc.  Organic materials which we see in arena footings are things like loam, sawdust, bark mulch, shavings, manure, hay dust (do you store hay in your indoor?), and many natural fibers along with some synthetic fibers.   Some ground up “waste rubber” additives can contain materials that are capillary and porous adding to the amount of dust abatement material you’ll need.  No matter what you are using for dust control, if you have organic materials in your footing the amount of any dust suppressant will be higher because these materials will suck up any dust suppressant that is added to the footing; water, mineral oil, MAG, or some of polymer additives that are out there.   Armed with this knowledge, it is helpful to carefully evaluate your footing by looking at it closely for signs that it might contain some of these organic materials.

No two footings are alike!

Burn Test

A burn test on collected samples of the dust itself is the easiest method to determine if your dust is emanating from the mineral (sand) portion of your footing, or, if it is organically derived.   The footings analysis expert will instruct you if we feel a burn test is appropriate.

Be aware that when we are asked to stabilize footings with high levels of organic material components, it is expected and likely that it will take much more MAG to stabilize.  In fact, in some cases we’ve found that it can 3-5 times as much MAG to stabilize high levels of organic based footing materials than it will mineral based footing materials.  That is true of any dust control material used whether its mineral oil, polymer, water, or our MAG.   Organic materials like hay and wood are capillary and sponge like, so they will absorb exponentially more treatment (and if using water it will evaporate much more quickly too) and this is why it is vital that you consult with one of our footings experts to run an analysis on your footing to determine how much it will take.  When you work with one of our experts, it also ensures our 100% satisfaction or money back guarantee.

Here’s an image of footing that was indicated by the barn owner to be all sand, but when we looked at it under the stereo microscope, you can see quite a bit of organic matter in it; grasses, hay dust, manure, etc.

As you can imagine, if we are treating the footing for all sand dust and it is filled with organic matter like hay shards, manure, and dirt, then the amount of MAG necessary to treat this footing will be exponentially higher than what it would take if the entire footing were only the small white sand particles that you can see.

Understanding the composition of your footing, and more importantly the source of the dust, is a critical component to managing the dust no matter what you are using for dust control.   Think of MAG as a dry form of water and add it until the footing is dust free, and the weight, dampness, and consistency you want for your type of riding.

GGT:

GGT, also called German Geo Textile, seems to be a broadly used term for a footings additive that is a fibrous material.   We have heard from some users who indicated that the sellers of these new textile additive materials are advising they need to maintain moisture levels in the range of 10-12% for optimal performance.   We do not make any claims nor warranties about using MAG with GGT at those levels.  Our MAG is intended to be used ONLY as suggested by the results of our trained professional’s analysis of footing to stabilize for dust and to freeze-proof the footing.   Maintaining these high levels of moisture by using our MAG is not recommended and exceeds our comfort level.  Please discuss your expectations and options for dust control and freeze-proofing your GGT arena with our representative during the footings analysis to avoid disappointments.

Summary

• Prepare your ring to be treated by grooming and leveling.
• Use a checkerboard pattern to apply product evenly.
• DO NOT WATER – EVER! (It is ok to “spritz” the ring once.)
• Thoroughly rinse down all equipment after each application.

Ask for our brochure to understand more about this extremely safe and proven dust control product.

Packaged in heat sealed 50 lb. poly bags – 48 bags per pallet.:

Easily applied using a tow behind broadcast spreader 

When properly applied, it will look like it just snowed lightly on the indoor. 

The photo below shows some flakes that were thrown over on to the cement aisle floor have already begun to draw in moisture and dissolve. This is how MAG works to coat dust particles and hold them down on the arena floor. 

Initial treatment of a ring should look like this following application. 

Within 24 hours, the MAG will dissolve and will wet the ring surface down. This will continue to improve and penetrate the footing as hoof traffic and use drives the product into the footing. 

Download

MAG Care and Feeding for Dust Control is available in PDF form for distributing and printing.

Do you have any questions? Contact us today at 508.520.3900

FACT: BEET JUICE DOES NOT IMPROVE SALT BRINE PERFORMANCE

A key reason road maintenance professionals turn to salt brine additives is to increase the deicing performance of salt brine at lower temperatures. Pure salt brine used for deicing is 77% water/23% salt. It freezes when road temperatures reach -6°F/-21°C and is generally applied at road temperatures as low as 15°F/-9°C.

• Adding beet juice to salt brine — even at a 20% concentration — does not increase the salt brine’s ice-melting properties or decrease the temperature at which it is effective.
• ArctiClear Gold improves salt brine performance when it is added at just 10% concentration—allowing salt brine to effectively work at road temperatures as low as 5°F/-15°C.

FACT: BEET JUICE REDUCES THE FRICTION OF SALT BRINE

It is important to use deicing products that provide enough surface friction to give drivers adequate traction. Some additives may cause roads to be slick if they are applied at the wrong temperature.

• Beet juice reduces the friction of a salt brine solution by 10% – 20%. This translates to slicker roads and more dangerous driving conditions.
• ArctiClear Gold increases the friction of salt brine by 10% – 20% and allows you to safely apply the brine solution at lower temperatures.

FACT: HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF BEET JUICE ARE REQUIRED TO COMBAT CORROSION

Additives can help protect equipment and sensitive infrastructure from the wearing effects of salt. The Pacific Northwest Snowfighters (PNS) Association has established a standardized protocol to measure and predict the corrosion potential of deicing products. On this corrosion scale, pure salt scores 100 and water scores 0. Products must score below 30 to meet most PNS corrosion specifications.

• 25% beet juice concentration is required to lower salt brine’s corrosion score to meet PNS specifications. However, it will also reduce the brine’s ice melting properties. So when beet juice is used as a corrosion inhibitor, application rates should be increased in direct proportion to the amount of beet juice added. Higher concentrations of beet juice also mean higher costs.
• ArctiClear Gold and ArctiClear CI Plus reduce corrosion at much lower concentrations. And, both are approved on the PNS Qualified Products List.

What is ArctiClear® Gold?
ArctiClear Gold contains magnesium chloride and naturally derived sugar in a patented formulation designed to optimize the performance of your salt brine.

What is ArctiClear CI Plus?
ArctiClear CI Plus reduces the corrosion levels of salt brine to acceptable PNS corrosion levels. While it offers no deicing performance improvement, it’s the most economical salt brine corrosion inhibitor on the market.

Don’t let beet juice water down your deicing efforts. Ask your beet juice and salt brine additive provider for independent lab data or send an additive sample mixed with salt brine for independent lab analysis of freeze point, corrosion and friction. Call 800-637-4504 for more guidance in evaluating salt brine additives.

What you might like to know

In snow country, we utilize many landscape features that might be impacted by the use of chemical deicers. Understanding how chemical deicers can cause efflorescence in concrete, brick and pavers is an important first step to managing complaints about this topic.

The Chemistry of Efflorescence

All concrete products contain cement which produces lime or water soluble calcium oxide. Lime can also be in the bedding sand, aggregate base materials, or soil. Although concrete pavers are solid, strong, and very dense, they contain millions of microscopic capillaries that run from the interior to the surface. Moisture from rain, sprinkler systems , underground sources, poor site drainage, or dew enters these microscopic capillaries.
Efflorescence emerges from pores within a magnified area of a concrete. The calcium has been carried to the surface by water and now exposes it to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which reacts to form the carbonate bloom.
Calcium oxide inside the concrete reacts with the water in the capillaries and forms calcium hydroxide. This rises to the surface, reacts with the carbon dioxide in the air, and forms a white haze of calcium carbonate. When moisture on the surface evaporates, the efflorescence becomes visible.
Efflorescence occurs when free calcium, sodium, and other reactive metal ions absorb carbon dioxide from the air to form carbonates; an efflorescent bloom that looks like wispy white frost. This can happen naturally in new or old concrete and pavers, and in concrete, clay fired brick, and, concrete pavers where deicers are applied. The metal ion component of deicers, such as the sodium in rock salt, or the calcium in calcium chloride, become free after applied and absorb CO2 from the air to form carbonate blooms or efflorescence; a white frosty crystal growth on the concrete sidewalk, brick paver surface, or clay brick buildings near the areas where deicers were applied.
Certain deicers are far less susceptible to forming carbonate blooms, such as magnesium chloride, and conversely some deicers are more prone to contribute to efflorescence such as calcium chloride and rock salt or sodium chloride.
My decorative bricks all have a chalky white efflorescent bloom on them that keeps growing even after I wash it off. When will this stop?
First you need to determine if the bricks are cement paver type or clay fired type. This is to help anticipate the source of the free metal ion that is causing the carbonate bloom. Most efflorescence stops in early summer following repeated rainfalls which wash it away. Acid rain actually helps in this context because it will dissolve the calcium or sodium bloom upon contact in most cases.
If the source of the efflorescence is coming from free sodium and/or calcium that is residue from winter deicing operations, then it shouldn’t last very long. If on the other hand it’s coming from the concrete itself and is not deicer derived, then it might continue for years or longer.

How to minimize the chance for efflorescence:

Some deicers, such as our MAG products, cannot effloresce and for this reason they specified by many manufacturers of pavers and brick such as Glen-Gery Brick and Unilock. While efflorescence is a natural occurrence, there are some steps that you can take to try to minimize the opportunity for it to occur. One of these steps, applying a good quality concrete sealer, can also reduce the chances of concrete spalling damage which is discussed at length in another technical article on our website at www.MeltSnow.com.

“Environmentally friendly” is a term that is applied with a spatula in today’s products’ labels in ever increasing numbers.   What does it mean?  Does it mean it’s better for nature, people, pets, or for the profit line of the company offering it?    In the industry and elsewhere, we see a marked increase in “green-washing” of products and issues; that is that something is claimed to be environmentally better but there is no science to back it up and ultimately, it’s just a label with a lot of green ink.

Most of us think of environmental issues largely as “pollution”.  In this context, the US EPA considers two fundamental sources of pollution; Point Source, and, Non-Point Source.  In simple terms a pollutant is a substance that enters the environment and elevates the “natural” background levels of chemistry in that environment.   Deicing materials fall into non-point source pollution as they are first applied for public safety and then migrate into the environment; wetlands, rivers, storm drains, and groundwater.   But often we have to consider the environment beyond just groundwater such as roadside vegetation and the animals that live in that environment.

In an attempt to unravel the reams of misinformation, consumer confusion, and, outright deceptive label claims, we will try to address each component of environmental impact from deicers that every property owner should think about as they evaluate their choices of deicing materials.
For the past sixty years, since the onset of road salt use for winter maintenance, sodium chloride levels have been steadily rising in North American rivers and tributaries.   Sometimes, the deicers are in direct contact with public water supplies, and sometimes they are carried to the low-lying areas of our environment through melting and runoff.  To put this into context, in the US we add (apply) over one million truckloads (20 million tons) of road salt to our environment every year.   Packaged deicers are a few million or so tons on top of that.  Removing salt from the environment is difficult if not impossible once it is down and moving in runoff.   Capturing runoff and using reverse osmosis and/or membrane separation are expensive, time consuming, and to my knowledge no public entity is currently removing salt from runoff anywhere in North America.

The true nature of deicer environmental impact is a problem that is widely misunderstood.  If current trends continue in the coming decades aquatic life will suffer and water supplies will be threatened. Sodium is a concern for people with medical conditions such as hypertension.  Governments need to decide on which end of the process to spend dwindling public funds: environmentally better deicers for the roads or new treatments for the waters they pollute.  Both cost more.

It is very important to remember always that the only reason we ever put down any deicer is for public safety.  There is no practical reason to apply deicers with the sole exception of public safety and it is important that the benefits that deicers provide are carefully balanced against any adverse consequences of their use.   Literally billions of dollars of damage from traffic and pedestrian accidents are avoided by the use of deicers.   Before indicting any deicer, please consider how life would be without it and whether the risks outweigh the rewards and adverse consequences.

While grandiose and often patently false claims of environmental fitness are widely found on packaged deicers, more and more we are seeing that trend bleeding into bulk products with agricultural,  fermentation by-product, and sugar based additives making over-reaching claims.  These additives are frequently corn sweetener based, or beet sugar based, or even just plain molasses, but they are only added to road salt in relatively small quantities while celebrated in the marketing materials as if they were the only component.   Road salt additives for the most part seem to definitely provide some benefits, but it is not unusual to find alternatives costing up to ten times or more than the basic salt while only providing a fractional improvement in performance enhancement.

One of my pet-peeves in this context is the claim that any additive to road salt suddenly makes the entire mixture bio-degradable.   It is impossible for any inorganic salt product (sodium chloride-magnesium chloride-calcium chloride) to become bio-degradable by the simple addition of an organic sugar component.   The additive might be biodegrade, but the salt cannot according to all laws of inorganic chemistry.   Claims that any salt based material is biodegradable are patent falsehoods and they intentionally deceive the buyer for the purpose of profit.   Do not simply assume the marketing claims of any product are true because there is no truth in labeling in the deicing industry and there is no penalty for lying; at least not yet.
Biodegradable is not always a good thing; bacteria that break down the organic chemical additives consume oxygen – and low oxygen levels are another problem in many urban streams.   The EPA has guidelines for and regulates biological oxygen demand (BOD) because high BOD’s can choke off an aquatic ecosystem.   On the other end of the spectrum is adding problematic macronutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium which feed eutrophication – algae growth – which chokes off aquatic ecosystems by over-feeding them with nutrients.     We get complaints that many additives stain and stink like rotting vegetables.

For packaged melters, a fancy bag with pictures of mountains and puppies with a catchy name and lots of friendly words and official looking seals of approvals on it is merely a wrapper and nothing more.    Start by ignoring the appearance of the wrapper and focus only on the chemistry of what’s in the bag.   Label green-washing is pandemic in the deicing chemical industry and it is a relatively new phenomenon – maybe the last five to ten years – and it is happening with exponentially increasing use.

As we begin to consider aspects of environmental fitness deicing products, we must first reduce all the variables to a common denominator: the chemistry of the product and the chemistry of the environment that you are trying to protect.   No matter what anyone wants to claim about a product being anything, in order to properly evaluate the environmental “benefits” the chemistry of the product is the core of evaluation.

”Environmental” impact of deicers may come in any number of forms:

1. Pollution to water
   • Drinking water supplies worry about
     • Elevated sodium because hypertensive users might be placed at risk with elevated sodium levels stemming from use of road salt for example.
     • Elevated chlorine levels
     • Elevated biological oxygen demand and potential eutrophication – algae growth fed by deicers like urea, acetates, formates, and, other fertilizer macro nutrients (N-P-K) commonly used for deicing.
     • Elevated levels of heavy metals that may come along with any material and particularly with mined materials where contaminants are not routinely evaluated
   • Rivers and waterways worry about elevated levels of anything that is unnatural to that waterway.   This covers everything from the deicer itself to the contaminants that are part of the material.
2. Impact to infrastructure
   • A multilevel structural concrete parking garage uses a reinforcing bar skeleton which may be susceptible to corrosion from many deicers
   • A concrete walkway may be damaged by increased freeze-thaw cycles from freeze point depression deicers
   • A bridge constructed of steel may have increased corrosion leading to failure
   • Certain types of porous pavement, found increasingly in campuses where Federal Storm water recharge laws are calling for less solid pavement which prevents groundwater recharge, are extremely susceptible to freeze-thaw damage since these materials are fully saturated with deicer brines.
   • Corrosion to vehicles and equipment
   • Doorways, stairways, fasteners on decking are potentially corroded by deicers
3. Impact to landscape features
   • Walkways constructed of decorative stamped concrete or brick may have efflorescence
   • Marble or granite steps and flagstones set in concrete mortar
   • Turf and shrub exposure to deicers
4. Regulatory driven:
   • Order of conditions by a conservation commission to not use ‘salt’
   • Prohibition due to rivers protection
   • Coastal protection such as harbors, waterfronts, and navigable waterways

Chlorides are near the top of the list of components that the EPA wants reduced.   You can quickly list commonly available deicers by descending order of their chloride content in commercial form; rock salt, calcium chloride, potassium chloride, magnesium chloride, followed by all the non-chloride products.   Is chloride content what you’re trying to eliminate in your environment?    If it’s Sodium that is the problem, then again simply use the chart below to arrange the listed products by sodium content and then focus on the ones with the lowest sodium content.

If you are evaluating a deicer for use in your new porous paved parking lot, where all the rain, snow, ice, and deicing materials will seep directly into the ground below, understanding if the chemistry needs of the affected groundwater should be at the core of your decision making.  If you are trying to reduce the total chlorides, then salt products with naturally lower chloride levels like magnesium chloride hexahydrate might be a good option.   Road salt contains 62% chlorine but magnesium chloride hexahydrate contains only 34%, so by changing the product you can cut the sodium out nearly entirely and reduce the chloride by 50%.   The performance improvement may get more melting effectiveness further allowing for reductions in what is seeping into the environment.    If you are on top of a public water supply, then perhaps non-chloride deicers should be considered provided the BOD and macronutrient loadings are not going to become a new problem.  Frequently nitrates are also on the environmental reduction list so using UREA for example might be like jumping from the frying pan into the fire.

The chart below gives basic information on common deicers that could be helpful in establishing an environmental evaluation:

We have had the benefit of hearing many outrageous assertions about snow and ice products over the past three decades, and the one that we see most often is misinformation.    If a plowing customer says that they don’t want “salt” on their property, they need to be very specific about what salt they do not want and it helps if you can understand why.   We’ve had many occasions to appear before regulatory boards who handed down an order of conditions on a property without the benefit of proper information.    “No salt!”   Does that mean no sodium, no chlorides or both?   Why?   If the no-salt is due to wetlands, then using UREA or Potassium acetate might be the worst thing you could put down as it could have a far greater adverse impact than salt might have.   Stating  what you can’t use is only half of the challenge, the other half is what you CAN use to fight snow and ice.

A comment about LEEDS certifications and deicers:  Many property owners are seeking to obtain LEEDS certification.   Recently, LEEDS has recognized that magnesium chloride hexahydrate is low chlorides and highly effective and they recommend its use for buildings though they have no certification nor clear statement on this.   Green Seal is an organization that certifies various materials and products for their environmental fitness based on the chemistry.   There is no Green Seal standard for ice melters.

Understand that when it comes to evaluating deicers environmentally, it is still the wild west with the standards and laws changing from one town to the next.   We have been trying to start an independent deicer industry institute to then select an impartial lab who would perform testing and certify each product to a standard and certify the ingredients.   This must be done to stop the lies in labeling that are so pervasive in this market today.    Imagine putting a food product on a shelf with no list of ingredients?   Consumers would scream the day it hit the shelves but somehow, we have allowed the packaged deicer world to evolve under a cloak of deception in labels.    That is unacceptable and we must have transparency in the industry to clean up Dodge, and help the users to understand that this is nothing more than middle school science.

Demand a full disclosure of ingredients by percentage from any material you are considering so you know what you are putting into your environment.    We’ve had more than a few times when someone said they are using “Enviro-this” or “Eco-that” deicers because they can’t use salt, only to learn that the products they are buying are over 95% salt and they accomplished nothing but over-paying for salt.

On Various Surfaces and Materials of Construction

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“What’s the best deicer to use?”   We hear that question virtually every day and our answer is always the same; it depends on the surface you are trying to manage.

Building materials have taken some quantum leaps in recent decades and the surfaces that we had to manage for snow and ice control thirty years are still there, however quite a few new surfaces and landscape features have evolved that require some understanding of ice melters in order to properly manage application of them on these newer materials.

For example; you might be asked “what is the best deicer for a residential deck surface?”    Properly managing snow on deck surfaces requires the snow fighter to first understand the exact nature of construction of the deck itself.   On first blush the average snow fighter would likely simply apply whatever he’s using on the sidewalks or even the parking lots.   That could be a fatal mistake if the deck material and fastener system  holding it together are not considered before deicers are used.

While not overly common in commercial properties, wooden decks adorn a vast majority of single family homes, condominiums, and apartments in North America.  It’s a common feature that is outside and will catch snow and ice equally with the parking lot in most cases.    Wood is by nature capillary and accordingly it will hold moisture.  If you look at the photo of the concrete steps leading down to a wooden deck walkway,  you can see how the snow is sticking to the colder wooden surface and not on the concrete surface.   Because of that fact and the exposure to weather, typically stainless or galvanized fasteners are used to fasten the surface to the joists and the rim joist to the building (galvanized lag bolts).    Chloride based deicers are corrosive to many different types of metals.   If you were to use a chloride based deicer, the chlorides may and likely would attack the fastener system and in time will eat away at it and cause the fasteners to dissolve even if only ever so slightly.   Deicers were implicated as a contributing factor in the sensational bridge collapse in Minn. a few years ago.    A loose nail or screw does not hold and while a nail or screw that is driven in is normally nice and tight and does a great job of holding, start eroding (shrinking) that fastener with chloride deicers and you could compromise the fasteners and ultimately face a catastrophic failure.

I am speaking from direct experience in this context:  A large group of close friends were relaxing on a large sun deck at a ski chalet in Vermont some years ago when the fasteners holding the deck to the house gave way and the entire structure suddenly fell from the house side while the outboard upright supports briefly held.   The people that were standing on the deck were instantly piled up in the crotch of the collapse and seconds later the uprights that were holding the outer rim of the deck fell and the deck then kicked first out and then back as it landed and all of the people that were on it were crushed between the building and the kicking deck.   These were athletic young skiers who you would think could manage a fall but the incredible part of this collapse was that everyone that was on the deck was injured and most had either broken legs or broken pelvis’.   That is a very sobering reminder to me about the necessity of the integrity of fasteners on deck systems, and as a deicer company we try to caution people about this.

So as you decide how you’re going to attack the snow and ice problem on a deck, be careful to evaluate all of the elements of that structure that will be exposed to deicers and then make your decision.
Going back to the wooden deck, wood is capillary and tends to hold moisture by its nature.   If you apply hygroscopic deicers to it lightly, you may actually increase the slip and fall danger more than abate it.     Calcium chloride and magnesium chloride are great products for most applications, but they are very hygroscopic (attract moisture) and if brines of these materials saturate the capillaries of a wooden deck, they might make that deck more prone to moisture generated slipperiness.   We’ve also seen a lot of plastic decking in the last decade and it’s a great material that is enormously popular because of its long life and lack of required maintenance with stain or paint.  However, as anyone who’s ever walked  on a plastic deck in sneakers that was rain covered knows, when plastic decks are wet they are very slippery.   Now add a calcium chloride or magnesium chloride deicer to that plastic surface and you can setup a potential slip and fall while trying to prevent that very risk.   Most plastic materials are virtually impervious to deicer brines, the hygroscopic nature of the deicer may actually increase the “oily” factor and slipperiness of the deck surface.

With decks, the variables to carefully consider are the material of construction, the fastener systems, and the overall exposure to the number one natural ice melter in the world; the sun.   Decks, whether they are bridges, elevated walkways, or residential sun decks, are the most tricky surface that we face with deicers and that is the time when abrasives are often very beneficial so consider adding sand to the mix if you are responsible for making a deck passable and safe in winter weather.

Another material that we are seeing more of in the snow belt is granite used in a variety of applications from entrance areas to steps.   More often than not, these granite slabs and tiles are a polished surface which poses concern about making the surface slick from the use of moisture gathering deicing compounds.   Along with granite, many high-end properties are using pavers, slate, and other stone elements set in mortar.

The most common complaint about deicers is concrete damage and that is typically the result of spalling caused by a mechanical attack of melting created liquid brines contained in the air voids of the concrete refreezing, and thereby expanding and breaking apart the concrete mechanically – not chemically.  When dealing with stonework set in mortar, the potential for freeze:thaw derived spalling damage is extremely high, and great care must be exercised any time the surface you are treating has stone or other features set in mortar.   The brines created by the application of deicers onto the snow and ice covered surface will penetrate the mortar and may cause freeze:thaw related failures.   So that beautiful slate walk that was just put in may become an unstable broken up mess; the deicer might be safe for the slate, granite, or stone, but it’s not safe for new concrete.

I plan to cover concrete damage more thoroughly in a future article, however we generally recommend that no chemical deicers are used on concrete less than two years old.   Sealing the concrete properly with a professional concrete sealer or paint will help to prevent the resultant brines from filling up the air pockets in air entrained concrete and help to lower the potential for freeze:thaw related damage.

Back to the variety of surfaces that are out there, it is nearly impossible to offer a “one size fits all” deicer for all of these different surfaces because each has its own characteristics that can be impacted by the type of deicer you choose.   If you have a surface that can tolerate chlorides, then by all means regular old rock salt will provide the least expensive deicing option.   With products like our treated salt, which is rock salt encapsulated with a mixture of magnesium chloride and molasses, users generally see significant performance improvement over untreated salt as the magnesium “wrapper” is the first to brine and helps salt work a lower temperatures than it normally would work.

Understanding that chloride based deicers generally all will attack ferrous metals and many other types of metals found in building systems can help you to avoid costly damage claims.   Looking closely at the photo of the doorway, which by the way is less than 3 years old, you can see that the galvanized steel stairs appear to be ok, but the steel door and frame are already showing heavy corrosion damage.   Adding corrosion inhibitors to chloride based deicers may help, but you have to understand the inhibitor being applied and whether it is biodegradable or if it  has a lifespan that is shorter than the end time of time lifespan on the chloride deicer.   Inhibitors are something that are still widely misunderstood in our experience and people mistakenly assume that simply having “an inhibitor” in the product is going to protect their materials which usually they do not!

As you evaluate any property and the variety of surfaces to be deiced, always think beyond the surface; think about where the mixture of deicer and melt water will go and how that mixture might introduce new concerns if at all.    On the surfaces themselves, be sure to carefully consider all of the components that will be exposed to the resulting brines or melted snow and make sure that the deicer you’re using is not going to attack secondary non-target components such as re-bar, steel stairs, aluminum door frames and thresholds, mortar and concrete used to hold stones, granite, or other architectural landscaping features.    Also, understand that any snow that is thrown or plowed off that contains deicers also will then contaminate the point of final rest where they melt down and enter ground water potentially affecting shrubs, turf, and other plantings.
The most important thing you can do as an ice melt product buyer is to demand that your supplier gives you a certified statement of ingredients.   If you are buying a product called “The World’s Safest Deicer”, then you are entitled to a complete detailed analysis of the ingredients listing them by descending percentages in detail.   There are a lot of smoke and mirrors out there in packaged deicers and just because there are puppies, babies, and pine trees on the bag and it has a statement of being safe for the environment or it “contains” CMA does not mean that the material is automatically safe!  The US Federal Right to Know law entitles every ice melt product buyer to a statement of ingredients; it is the law.   Do not take the salesman’s word for it; if you are buying 96% rock salt and 4% filler you have a legal right to know that.    If they claim it is protected by a patent, then ask for the patent number or point out the obvious; the very purpose of a patent is to protect the inventor by public disclosure of his invention – so if it’s patented, IT’S NOT A SECRET!   We are as an industry fighting labeling problems and we encourage all buyers of ice melter products to demand a full disclosure, in writing, and certified as to the formula and ingredients BY PERCENTAGE in any ice melt product you buy.   We will provide these on any product that we sell, and we applaud Cargill Salt for printing their formulas on their bags this year and helping to straighten out this massive label deception that is suddenly prevalent in packaged melters.

Insurance to Keep Liquid Deicers Honest

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Hydrometers are widely used to measure specific gravity, or density, of liquid materials.   Most people have used a form of hydrometer to check the level of glycol antifreeze in their  car radiator or the battery acid strength in the car battery.   Those types typically employ a series of colored balls that individually will float up at various densities to indicate strength.  ERTCO manufactures the glass hydrometers that we use for testing of our BioBrineTM product line of magnesium chloride, calcium chloride, and sodium chloride liquids for deicing.    If you are making salt brines, now ERTCO offers a specific hydrometer for salt brines that shows the percentage of salt, but we use the standard chemical laboratory glass hydrometers with graduation marks in 0.000 increments for accuracy and these are the hydrometers that we suggest be used as they are reliably accurate.

While not a chemical test that gives a percentage of ingredients per se, hydrometers are the backbone of spot checking the density of a liquid deicer to confirm that it is either within specification or not.   Heavy chemicals are materials that are heavier than water.    Water has a specific gravity of 1.000 at 68F (room temperature).  We know from high school science that water weighs 8.34 (8.3369) pounds per US gallon.    This basic understanding is important, because any liquid deicer that is heavier than water will be the specific gravity times the weight per gallon of water to determine the weight per gallon of the liquid deicer.   32% liquid calcium chloride weighs 11.03 lbs per gallon and that is determined by multiplying the specific gravity, 1.322, times the weight per gallon of water, 8.34 to arrive at 11.03.  This fundamental basis is the used for all the common liquid deicers that we encounter in snow and ice management.

For example, if you were to receive a bulk tank truck delivery of 32% liquid calcium chloride deicer, you could capture a sample and then fill up a one gallon jug with the product and it should weigh pretty close to 11 lbs.   If it is 9 or 10 lbs, then you are getting a good bit more water in the load then you expected, and if its 12 lbs, then you are getting additional solids in the material that could be calcium or could be something else, but in any case it is clear that it is not within the specification range for 32% calcium chloride which you ordered.    It is almost too easy to for the dishonest butcher to put his thumb on the scale when weighing up the deli order, and accordingly it is also easy for the dishonest liquid deicer supplier to put a little more water in the product and not have the customer catch that he just got 27% CaCl2 even though the paperwork says it is 32%.  The use of the hydrometer will empower you to quickly see if what you bought is within specification or not.

Here is a common chart showing the specific gravity of various concentrations of calcium chloride liquid.   In the second column from the left, you will find a list of specific gravities which correspond to the percentage of calcium chloride in the solution indicated immediately to the left.   The other columns of this chart show the gallons per ton of the solution (and dry) along with equivalent levels of flake, pellet, anhydrous calcium with the final column being the approximate freezing point.

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Using the information on the chart above, we’ve outlined in red the 32% calcium chloride row and corresponding specific gravity of 1.322

To properly use the hydrometer there are some basic things that one must understand to get accurate readings consistently and over time.   First, the torpedo style of lead filled glass hydrometer that we advocate, floats up higher and higher as density of the material increases.   Understanding that water is specific gravity of 1.00, we want the hydrometer to settle in this solution at 1.322 to tell us that is on specification.

The materials needed to perform the simple test:
You will need a clear graduated cylinder, a hydrometer that covers the range of material densities you need to check, and, a sample of the material to be checked that is sufficient in size to fill the graduated cylinder at least ¾s full.   The hydrometer MUST ALWAYS be kept clean and dry; any accumulation of dried solids on the walls of the glass hydrometer will change the weight of the hydrometer and cause it to sink farther into the liquid and give a false reading.

Start by confirming that the hydrometer is the within the estimated range of the material that you are testing.   For this exercise, we are going assume that we just received a tank truck delivery of 32% liquid calcium chloride.    Referring to the chart, we scroll down to 32% CaCl2 and then across to the specific gravity column showing 1.322 @ 77F.   We next select the properly ranged hydrometer, which in this case is the ERTCO #2541, with a range from 1.200-1.420.

Make sure that the sample is at room temperature; cold contracts (more dense) and hot expands (less dense) so temperature is an important factor to consider when checking specific gravities.   Fill up the graduated cylinder 2/3rds full with the sample being careful to pour slowly to avoid any bubbles.  If the sample has bubbles in it, you have to wait for them to rise and the sample to be free of bubbles with will float the hydrometer and give a false reading.   Make sure the hydrometer is clean and dry!   Next take the hydrometer and carefully and SLOWLY slip it into the center of the graduated cylinder being careful to not just drop it like a depth charge and not scraping the walls of the cylinder as it submerges into the sample.  Read the line at the surface and not at the meniscus which is the curved surface gripping the walls of the cylinder.

Since you know that it should be around 1.322 gravity, continue to carefully allow the hydrometer to sink until you get close to the target point (1.320 on the markers in the glass tube) and then allow the hydrometer to settle gently without over-sinking and bobbing back up.  If the hydrometer sinks deeper (depth charge drop) and then rises it will have liquid clinging to the walls of the glass which will weigh down the hydrometer and give a false reading.   The same care must be applied to not have water on hydrometer because it will also give a false reading.

You should now be able to read the specific gravity of the liquid and confirm that it is 1.326 as shown below reading the markings at the liquid level.  1.326 is just slightly above but well within the acceptable range of 32% calcium chloride liquid.

We’ve tried to provide a detailed description of how to take hydrometer readings, and while this description is lengthy, it will take less time to use, clean, and, dry the hydrometer and cylinder after use that it did to read these tips and instructions.

To recap the procedure:

1. Pour your sample into a smooth, clear cylinder that is dry or well rinsed with a portion of the sample
2. Make sure your sample is thoroughly mixed before testing.
3. Immerse the hydrometer in the liquid to a point slightly below the place where it naturally floats. Make sure the hydrometer and liquid are at rest and free of air bubbles.
4. Measure the temperature of the sample. Ideally, the sample temperature should be equal to the temperature standard of the hydrometer, generally 60°F. If temperature differences are unavoidable, correction tables can help to adjust readings—call our Applications Specialists for information.
5. Take your reading at the point where the surface of the liquid crosses the hydrometer and not where the meniscus curve climbs up the wall.

How to Pick the Right Ice Melter For Your Needs

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We get a lot of calls asking about what deicer to use.  What are the best products to melt the ice and snow on city streets, parking garages, hospital entry-ways, sidewalks, and driveways?  What about the daycare center where children crawl and they pick up deicers on their hands and then potentially taste them?   How about the canine kennel where pets are exposed?  Frequently that question comes in the broad form; “What’s your best ice-melter?”  Our answer is always the same: It depends on your situation.
There are hundreds of brands and types of products that can melt snow and ice, but there is only one thing that consumers and users need to know about them: the chemical ingredients.   While it appears that these hundreds of products are all different, actually there are very few – a handful at most – that comprise the lion’s share of all deicers on the market today.   They are differentiated by their performance, the chemistry, and their respective costs.   While the myriad of options can be confusing, understanding the differences in product ingredients and how they work can make choosing the right product much easier.

The Basics –

The basic factors to consider should really be done from the ground up.  What is the surface you are treating made of and where will the runoff go?  If you have a wooden deck for example, did you know that using any chloride based product can create two potential hazards?  First the chloride component will attack the fastening system used to hold the deck together as it becomes diluted and saturates the deck, and secondly the brine may tend to attract moisture in the capillary pores of the wood allowing it to re-freeze as black ice.   Ever notice how frost seems to stay on a wooden deck?  So the surfaces you treat are the first thing you must consider when choosing the right deicer.
The next area of consideration is what we call source point collateral impact.  How will areas beyond where the deicer is used be affected?  Where will the runoff containing deicer go, or where will deicers be carried by vehicular and foot traffic?   Are there any downstream environmental issues of which you need to mindful such as waterways, wetlands, or aquifers?   For example, we frequently see “no salt zone” signs posted on highways adjacent to reservoirs.   This is because surface and shallow well potable (drinking) water supplies are protected from elevated sodium levels from salt run-off to minimize the dangers of elevated sodium levels to users within the distribution system who have hypertension.  Because the nature of deicing is inexact, over-application is the standard in most cases and that leads to collateral impact as the “extra” deicer is tracked off-site, runs off-site, or seeps into the environment. How that secondary aspect affects your situation is something that should be strongly considered.
The third and final area of consideration is a little higher up from the snow; it’s your wallet.  What is the cost per pound?

Balancing Act –

We constantly preach to our customers and distributor partners that snow and ice control is a balancing act.  You are balancing performance, which is generally defined as a black and wet surface, against adverse consequences, which encompasses everything from cost, to the right chemistry for your environment, collateral impact, and toxicity.   A powerful deicer might do a great job of keeping a walkway open but it also might kill all the fish in the goldfish pond, help to destroy the concrete, and be tracked in the building and ruin the rugs.

The Big Five-

As we’ve said, there are basically five common deicers that comprise a majority of the market; sodium chloride, magnesium chloride, calcium chloride, potassium chloride, and acetates.  Let’s address them in increasing order of cost with the lowest cost first:

Sodium Chloride (NaCl): Also called rock salt this is one of the most abundant chemical compounds found on the earth.  It is harvested by a variety of methods from mining both by open mines and underground mines; it is evaporated from brines that are flooded into pans from natural sources on the surface such as the sea; and, it is solution mined where we pump it from underground salt domes as a concentrated brine.   As a deicer, sodium chloride is number one by a landslide because it is cheap, readily available, and found the whole world over.   It will melt snow and ice effectively at temperatures down to +16 degrees, but performs best in the mid-20s.  Sodium chloride contains 67% chlorides and about 30% sodium so consider that these two ingredients will end up causing 90% of the benefit and 100% of the problems.

Magnesium Chloride (MgCl2): A premium or high performance deicer because of its effectiveness, it is a naturally occurring chloride compound like sodium chloride.  Magnesium chloride is found throughout the world in surface and underground mineral reserves.  Magnesium chloride is more expensive than sodium chloride but less than calcium and potassium chlorides.  In the US, the Great Salt Lake is a major source of magnesium chloride along with similar places in the world like the Dead Sea.   It is also solution mined from vast reserves under Northern Europe, China, and in the US as well (pun intended).  In the commercial deicer form as a dry hexahydrate, magnesium chloride contains 34% chlorides and 18% Magnesium. It’s gentle on most surfaces and vegetation as well as pet safe and has gained wide popularity in the last few decades because it doesn’t track and its low environmental impact. It’s very low toxicity is comparable to Vitamin C.   Found in pellet, flake, and liquid solutions from, magnesium chloride has exploded in use and demand in the world over the past two decades because it balances high performance with low environmental impact.  It will melt snow and ice effectively down to -13F.

Calcium Chloride (CaCl2): Another naturally occurring chloride like sodium and magnesium, calcium chloride is predominately found only in underground brines where it is brought to the surface, refined and dried.    Calcium chloride is more expensive than both sodium and magnesium chlorides.  Calcium chloride is far and away the most recognized premium deicer because it has been widely used in the US for over 100 years.  Tried and true this powerful premium deicer comes in pellet, flake, and liquid forms.  Like salt, calcium can be messy when it is tracked in and its toxicity is the highest of all chloride based deicers. Long established and far and away the lowest temperature deicer, it will melt ice to -25F.   It tends to be a little harder on surfaces but it does a great job, most premium deicers compare their performance to calcium chloride because it is so well recognized.

Potassium Chloride (KCl): A naturally occurring chloride like the others mentioned above, potassium chloride is actually used very little as a deicer at this time.   It is the principle ingredient in fertilizers as a source of potassium.  If you buy potassium chloride at a fertilizer dealer or farm supply, you would order it by it’s fertilizer designation of macro-nutrients: 0-0-60 (Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Potassium).  It is 60% potassium and only 37% chlorides so while it’s very easy on the environment it is also fairly ineffective as a deicer because it doesn’t melt below +25F.  People tend to like it because of the fact that it’s so environmentally friendly but in recent years the cost of fertilizers coupled with insanely rising prices in fertilizers have driven potassium chloride quickly from the #2 spot to the #4 spot on the ascending cost scale.  It has risen in price more than 10 fold from $80 in just the last three years so this year we are seeing virtually no potassium chloride in deicers other than background levels which occur naturally.  At over $1000/ton in bulk currently potassium chloride has exited the market as a deicer in most places and has been replaced by magnesium chloride which is its first cousin.

Acetates: Commonly found in three forms; sodium acetate, calcium magnesium acetate, and potassium acetate, acetate deciers are not chloride based and take an entirely different approach to the task of deicing and the market.   They protect surfaces and structures from chloride damage because they don’t contain any chlorides.  They are organic chemical compounds that break down naturally in the environment and leave little adverse impact.  Those benefits come at a steep price because the main ingredients used to make acetate deicers (acetic acid, dolomitic limes, and potassium chloride) are very expensive and in short supply in the US at this time driving prices up.   Available in dry and liquid forms, acetates are commonly used in structural concrete, parking garages, and airports where chlorides are banned due to the corrosion potential to aircraft systems.
Others: Other deicer options cover a lot of products but represent a very small segment of the market: Urea, ammonium sulfate, glycols, and formates are the most common ones but again these are in pretty small numbers because of their costs or performance relative to the “big five”.

Boutique Products-

In recent years, we’ve seen an explosion of boutique ice-melters that take low cost rock salt and mix small quantities of premium deicers in with them and then wrap them in a very fancy package.  These blends are often 90 percent or more rock salt with a small percentage of a premium ingredient, such as CMA, MAG, or calcium chloride. Ingredients in those proportions make them about as effective as rock salt and they have the same characteristics.   Frequently they are priced equal to premium deicers and are in very attractive packages.  We use a general rule of thumb: the fancier the bag and label, the more rock salt there is in the product.

Most if not all of these products do not disclose their ingredients and therein lies a multitude of problems.  First, Federal and State Right to Know Laws require manufacturers to disclose their formula and ingredients in descending order of concentration.  Most of these boutique deicers are very clever and take great steps to hide what they are really trying to sell.   Companies are taking a $2 bag of rock salt and put it in a bag with very expensive graphics like puppies, babies, and evergreen trees on high quality color package, and then call it “green this” or “enviro that”.  They are selling for 4-5 times their actual cost!   Many of these packages are outright consumer fraud and no one at the government level seems to be interested in bringing truth in labeling to the ice melt market. It’s a virtual free-for-all as companies are producing fancy bags of salt with dye in it and selling it for 80-90% profit!  We are frankly disgusted with some of the sleazy marketing that is being used.
How do you avoid being burned by the “pig in lipstick”?   You demand a certified analysis of ingredients in your deicer from your supplier.  We provide these documents routinely on any and all products which we sell.   We have nothing to hide and our belief is that if we educate our customers they will make the right decision which will benefit us. All of the products that we sell have MSDS (Material Safety Data Sheets) published on this website that clearly show ingredients and percentages.  It’s part of the deal when you work with MeltSnow.com.
We are not playing this game and we are trying to lead the charge against the lies in labels and encourage all of you to do the same.   Demand to be given a written statement on the manufacturer’s letterhead of what they are selling to you.  If their product is coated with peanut oil, they have a responsibility to tell you that in case someone walking over your deicer has a peanut allergy.   If they are selling you rock salt dyed green, do you really think the green dye and lovely evergreen trees on the bag are worth the $7 per bag premium?   PT Barnum step right up, we found one for you!
This is ice melt. We are not shooting rockets off to the moon and there are no secrets.  We sometimes hear people say “it’s a patented secret formula”.   Say what?  If it’s patented, then you are protected under the patent and the formula is listed for public viewing at the patent office.  It’s a public document so why is it secret?   It’s because they don’t want for you to realize that you are paying $8/bag for $2/bag rock salt with dye.   The secret is you’re getting taking to the cleaners – not that you are getting the latest in chemical deicer technology.
We don’t want to sound like we are down on blended deicers – we’re not.   Most them work pretty well and frequently the right combinations of these products in the right amounts can form synergies that are very effective.   If we add 8-10 gallons of liquid magnesium chloride or liquid calcium chloride to a ton of rock salt and we can lower the working temperature another 10 degrees and use 30% less to do the same job.   In practical terms, we are increasing the cost of that compound from $100/ton (just the salt) to $108-$110/ton.  So we increased the cost of a 50 lb. bag by only $0.25, not by $7.00!  ($10.00/2000 lbs x 50 lbs)
Most of us can easily tell what we are getting by simply making a visual examination of the product.  Does it look like its’ all white pellets or is it a granular material that looks like it’s mostly salt?
As the old expression goes, if it walks on four legs, barks, wags it’s tail and looks like a dog – it’s probably a dog.

Making the Right Choice-

Fortunately while to many people it appears that the market is flooded with lots of different products, if you spend a little time with your supplier asking the obvious questions of “what am I buying here” you can quickly separate the choices and find the right one for your needs.   If you are still confused, call us.  We’ll walk you through the process.  It’s what we do; snow, ice, and dust control solutions to problems.
Below are some helpful charts that give a lot of pertinent details on the products which we offer that can be helpful as you navigate through the decision process.  These are all developed by Dead Sea Works in support of their MAG products, but they are a good reference point to look at all the common deicers in each category.
Above all, ask questions of your supplier about what they are selling to you and demand a certified chemical breakdown of the product.   This isn’t rocket science so don’t let anyone work a slight of hand that makes you think that it is.

It has been a year since I last published a State of the Salt Address, however, changes in the market, changes in global supply positions, and the weather  are all factors I’d like to talk about in this installment of my market newsletter.   As always, this newsletter is filled with hyperlinks of my reference sources so you can read the same tea leaves that I am reading and draw your own conclusions.

Overall, in my view, right now it is a buyer’s market for deicing materials.  However, that market is very fragile and it won’t take much to tip the scales the other way, so we are advocating that the early buyer will get the lowest costs.

SALT

The salt of the earth salt business is changing and shrinking a little as far as major producers are concerned.  Many people were aware of the 2006 acquisition of International Salt by K+S of Germany three years ago, but some may not be aware that K+S continued to expand their interests in salt last fall when they successfully closed on the acquisition of Morton Salt Company headquartered in Chicago.  Morton’s business rounds out K+S’ global position nicely to now have them comfortably in the lead as the largest salt company on the planet.   The Securities and Exchange Commission made a number of demands of K+S at the closing to avoid what they perceived as market conflicts by forcing K+S to divest certain positions in certain ports where the SEC perceived potential limit of competition.    In my view, the SEC created a windfall for Eastern Salt and Granite State Minerals both of  whom were the beneficiaries of the deal, but I suppose in the grand scale of nearly $3 billion in sales for Morton, being forced to give up a chunk of their hard earned business to their competitors is not significant.  Salt is clearly a core and vital business unit for K+S as they are now considering unloading COMPO, a peripheral business unit in their fertilizers business.

Things to watch this fall and winter will be the demand in Canada where a good chunk of Morton’s market share is located.   Last winter, Eastern Canada had one of the lowest snowfall winters on record and snowy places like Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa didn’t see much snow at all.   That left huge stockpiles on the pier which is now backing up stocks in the mines and along the distribution channels.  In fact, the only market that caught a bit of a pop on salt demand last winter was the Mid-Atlantic who were crushed under record snows and subsequent demand for salt.

Don’t forget that salt is the most basic commodity chemical in the world, and more than half of the selling prices on salt typically are transportation and handling.   So, the excess tons lying on the docks in Canada could not be economically shipped to Baltimore and Philadelphia to backfill mid-Atlantic peak demand.  That product sits where it first landed awaiting snow in Canada and that will likely significantly impact the delivery of salt by sea in those locations.   Salt is treated with “YPS” as an anti-caking agent but that additive makes it unsuitable for non-bulk markets such as bagged salt and blends, but some companies are starting to bag and blend road salt; so, caveat emptor.

Primary salt producers also appear to be making a strategic move to cut off or limit sales of dried medium salt for bagging.     Bagged salt is typically a carefully dried and screened premium product.   Our medium salt tons are already fully committed for this coming 2010/2011 winter season, and we are unable to get more from our traditional suppliers.  We’re evaluating new sources of medium solar salt which we believe will help to fill this gap; however, the jury is still out for us.

Consumers and end users are cautioned for this season to be very careful to look at samples of any bagged salt that they plan on buying.   Many companies are already bagging up highway salt and road salt which is not dried, not tightly screened, and contains high levels of fines.   For more information and photos of salt products and how they vary, please visit our salt page on our website.   We see a lot junky salt out there and many baggers are simply throwing $50/ton road salt in a bag.  In some cases, they can get away with it; but, in most the moisture content is too high and this product will turn into a fifty pound paper weight, so make sure you know what you are buying!

Further, driving the bulk salt market this year is dramatic and significant increases in ocean freight.   Additional pressures on imported salt from a falling EURO will further pinch the salt market and likely result in higher pricing in the US as domestic producers carefully match their pricing on salt.   Don’t forget that  imported salt has been a very significant factor in the US market as far as pricing goes, and imported salt accounts for a significant portion of the US market today.    Many people are unaware of Canadian, Chilean, and European salt imports and how they impact pricing.   Also don’t forget that deicing salt sales account for only about 45% of the total US market, so while deicing salt is about half of the business, it’s not all of it by any means and other markets are also affected by these trends indirectly.

The reality of increased ocean freight costs coupled with falling currencies in key countries that produce or trade in salt have the potential to drive up prices quite a bit even though supplies are long.   That’s counter cyclical to our normal expectations of long supplies in commodities causing prices to collapse.   As many stockbrokers told clients about a year ago when talking about prices, “you can’t fall out of a basement window” ; so, in this context, salt prices tend to run at or near the bottom of the price curve potential because of their commodity nature.   Recognizing this factor will help many avoid being blind-sided by a sudden jump when other factors such as demand would have you expecting a reduction.

Before you completely glaze over on salt, be careful of what you buy and when you buy it this year as these market factors will surely affect the price and quality of salt at the end user.

LIQUIDS

Liquids are all the buzz.   Everybody wants them, and there is more misinformation about liquids than there is information.    Grandiose claims by boutique additive manufacturers are proliferating in our market and serve only to further confuse consumers and end users.    With regards to our experience in the humid East of the US, while some liquid salt products are beneficial and work well, you can’t replace a dry chemical deicer program with the same material in liquid form because there’s just too much water in the liquid.    Most liquid deicers peak out at 30% chloride when you consider that dry material turns into liquid when mixed with snow.  So, when uninformed or misinformed liquid users start putting 70% water on ice and wondering why it’s not melting, tell them you have a hunch as to why.

This is not at all to say or suggest that liquids are not good; they are great!   However, they are another tool in the snowfighters’ arsenal and not a replacement for dry products outright in our experience.   Liquid use for anti-icing (application before the storm) and for pre-wetting (coating salt) continues to be the primary ways in which liquids are most effectively used in winter deicing operations.

We stock and offer virtually all forms of liquid deicers in bulk and some flavors are available in packages.   Liquid calcium chloride, liquid magnesium chloride, liquid salt or salt brine, and potassium acetate are all stock items and generally readily available from one of our distribution centers.

DRY DEICERS

The robust mid-Atlantic winter will drive premium and packaged deicer demand in that region.    Long inventories from a soft winter everywhere else will likely result in a catfight of price discounting in the early season, find the bottom quickly and then climb from there as the winter approaches and higher cost replacement inventories arrive.

Dry Calcium Chloride:
Dry calcium chloride is in a very interesting state right now.  We have the successful completion of the sale of the calcium chloride business by Dow to Occidental Chemical putting OXY in the calcium chloride business for the first time.   With soft winter demand in most of the US and Canada, we suspect that inventories at OXY are still very good and pricing did not go up this season, which is another indication that things are pretty competitive right now.

The big question in everyone’s mind in Calcium Chloride right now is whether or not Tetra will get their plant up and running in Magnolia, AR on flake and pellet production.   Right behind that is the apparently stalled project in Trinidad with the former General Chemical production facility that was moved there from Manistee, MI to provide dry manufacturing for a new start up following General’s closure in 2002.   Information on this privately funded  venture is hard to come by, but rumors abound that the plant and equipment are sitting on the ground in Trinidad and not moving from the first point of rest when delivered over two years ago.  The last press release from the Company was last spring, so  I wouldn’t expect to see anything coming from here too soon either.

Ocean shipping rates spiked up and currencies down, as we mentioned in the salt section,  will keep China in a tight spot for supply of calcium chloride into the US market.  Since many wholesalers, like us, were left with far more supplies than we expected at the end of the winter (January), we are already seeing and offering some sweetheart deals on our leftover inventory to move it out so we can replace all of it with domestically manufactured and supplied calcium chloride.   The early buy on calcium chloride is going to be a buyer’s market from what we see at this point with inventories moving out to clear the way for new material to arrive or replace them.

Dry Magnesium Chloride:
Dry magnesium chloride, MAG Pellets and MAG Flakes, are also somewhat long on inventory at this point.   MAG is typically not held in large stockpiles; and, being a good product with strong environmental preference driven demand, it will run out quickly if demand picks up quickly.   Pricing on MAG is unchanged from last season but Dead Sea is careful to hedge their bet this year with the conspicuous absence of any pricing indication “in-season”.   A small increase to cover ocean freight is being absorbed in pre-season, and will become effective in the fall, so this too means buy early for the best deal unless you like to gamble.    As a result of the soft winter overall, our pre-season prices on MAG for this August are actually LOWER than they were last August even inclusive of increases, so we are looking to make some aggressive pricing deals for anyone who wants to buy early and save.

Magnesium chloride from Europe and China has been around for the past couple of years, but these are not comparable quality in both the flake and pellet form, and we have seen quite a bit of push-back from customers who tried the other brands and quickly returned to MAG because of particle size problems plugging spreaders with these other “me too” brands.    Again, don’t expect MAG to be there once the snow flies.  It always is the first to run out and then is slow to recover; so, if you want the Dead Sea dry magnesium chloride, best to order early.

Domestic magnesium chloride is only manufactured in Utah and freight and logistics are tough – particularly with diesel fuel on the rise.  The form is granular and that too is often not liked once the end users get to use the Dead Sea MAG pellets and flakes.   Dead Sea’s MAG is really a good product and there’s just no denying it.

Check our new website (should be launched by August 15) for detailed information and comparisons on all the premium deicers.

BLENDS:
Ah, blends.    Blends are largely dyed salt with a pinch of something good that is not in sufficient quantities to actually provide much benefit or boost to the salt but allows the marketer to make catchy claims and statements celebrating the micro-components as if they were all that was in the bag.    We continue to advocate truth-in-labeling on deicer products and encourage customers to DEMAND a chemical analysis of what is being offered.  I’ve said it a thousand times; however, it bears repeating: this is not rocket science and there are no secret formulas in deicers.    There are tight laws regarding the labeling of salt products; and while these laws are written with food ingredients in mind, they still apply to the bag of salt that the consumer buys, and it is time for the US Government to force truth in labeling in deicers.   There is just way too much smoke and mirrors in the marketplace and it only serves to confuse and bewilder the consumer.

Blends have enjoyed enormous growth in the packaged deicer market over the past two decades, but things have virtually exploded in the past five years with exponential growth in deicing salt blend.   Why?   It’s simple. From the producer side, blends are nearly always predominately salt, so costs are low compared to premium deicers and performance deicers.   From the consumer side, the labeling is king and the deception in labeling on packaged blended deicers today is on a par with selling liver pills from a covered wagon in the days of the wild west.  It is absolutely horrendous with very few companies disclosing that they are selling salt.

We purchased some popular blends in the marketplace and had the contents tested by an EPA laboratory; the results were not surprising.   These blends claimed to be “CMA” and the label on the back of the bag extols the virtues of CMA.  In one case they said it was “CMA based” and in the other they claimed it was “CMA coated”.   Well, with a million bucks worth of gas chromatographs and some of the most sophisticated laboratory test equipment available in science, none of the samples we submitted had detectable levels of CMA in them.  Not one!   Of course, they were in a very fancy bag with lots of nice pictures of trees, puppies, and children playing, but in each sample tested the lab report came back with salt levels exceeding 95%!

We happen to handle CMA, calcium magnesium acetate, from Cryotech, and we happen to also have the benefit of some of the real data on CMA and salt.   The minimum amount of CMA necessary to provide some corrosion protection in salt is 20%, and really 40% is more accepted as the base level for corrosion benefits.    But what about less than 1%?   The analogy that we use is:  if we added one shot glass of gasoline to 20 gallons of water, could we then drive our car on that mix?  Of course not!   And therein is the benefit you are actually getting versus what people think they are getting.  In a dramatic change from the past, we are pleased to announce that Cargill has decided to join us in the outcry for truth in labeling on deicers!   Bob O’Connell, Marketing Manager for Cargill’s packaged deicers is revamping its packaging and material data sheets to reflect in detail exactly what’s in the bag.
That is really some very big news as Cargill is the first producer to step up and join us in the fight to disclose what your buying and clean up the horrendous labeling lies that exist in this marketplace.

We offer a blend and it is an encapsulated salt.   Our pricing is under five dollars a bag; it is treated with an EPA certified product and we give a certification of ingredients on the product.   That is the only blend we sell and we stand behind it.   We gladly provide a complete chemical breakdown, by percentage of what is in the product.

If you use a blend, ask the company for a certified analysis of what they are selling to you and watch them stare at their shoelaces and shrug.    We must demand and force truth in labeling on blends and all deicers if we are going to legitimize this marketplace and stop the liver pill marketers from ruining the environment by lying.

Finally, with regard to blends, one of the reasons that the major salt producers are limiting the sale of premium medium solar and dried salt to blenders and packaging companies is because they see the enormous profits being gleaned by these dyed salt “blends”, and they are making a legitimate blend with full disclosure and not getting a fair share of the market.    Every company in business is in business to make money and if you make 10% selling salt to someone who then re-labels it and marks it up 1400%,  you have to ask yourself why are you selling them the salt to start with if the value of it is that high?  There ya go.   Do the math.

OK, I’ll slide the soapbox back under the counter on that topic for now.

WEATHER

The weather is always the key to the deicing salt business.   Without snow and ice, there is no demand.    Just take a look at the 2009/2010 winter and the resulting excess inventories stacked up around North America to see how weather is always the key.   Because there is a fair amount of product stockpiled around the snow belt should not be construed or believed to mean that supplies are long and prices will drop.    The right weather sequence early in the winter can easily empty the entire on-ground inventory and have the industry chasing behind demand.

I’ve been at this for over three decades and in that time I’ve observed that a couple of factors can spell a boon for the supply side and trouble for the demand side of this business.   A lot of the entire winter’s demand will be determined by the number of storms between Thanksgiving and Christmas.   For example, the heavy salt and deicer consuming markets are, for the most part, in the population centers where people need to move about during inclement weather.    The Richmond, VA to Portland, ME Northeast corridor is a key area for us, as that is our primary marketing area and our back yard.   Last year with the mid-Atlantic storms, we had our strongest year ever;  however, by January the snows in the New England and NY area were non-existent and stayed that way.

Weather is the key and to that end, I’m a student of paleoclimatology.     I don’t subscribe to the man-made greenhouse gas global warming belief at all.  I think it’s voodoo science.   That statement should draw a number incendiary emails!

Do I believe in Global Warming?  Sure I do.  No question about it.  If we didn’t have global warming then the entire northern US and all of Canada would still be buried under hundreds of feet of glacial ice.   My belief is that we are in an inter-glacial period and this is all part of the norm.    Has man had an effect on the weather?  Absolutely he has by covering much of this planet with people and developing and/or removing many natural features such as Amazonian rain forests.  However, I don’t buy into the man-made greenhouse gas theories at all.  I think they are total poppycock.
On February 11th of this year, NASA launched the Solar Dynamics Observatory aboard an Atlas V rocket.   This will provide scientists with unprecedented information about the sun, and I believe that within a decade or less will ultimately lead to revolutionary Earth weather forecasting.  Right now, the focus for SDO is largely space weather; but as we learned in high school physics, for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction, and to that end I believe SDO will become a significant player in understanding and predicting Earth’s weather.

With regard to winter weather, I watch for some hopeful signs in solar cycles where the sun’s surface and sunspot activity is minimal.  If you were to overlay the sunspot activity of the past 200 years with recorded snowfall, you can absolutely see a clear pattern that supports this.   Right now the sun is in a very dormant state, and we are approaching the apex of that period.  I am of the belief that the opportunity for a robust or normal winter is in place, and whether or not that actually occurs is yet to be seen.    When sunspot activity is strong, typically snowfalls are low.

Solar cycles and astronomical cycles are the best indicators of what the weather should be and what we can expect in my experience.    El Niño this, La Niña that, Sea Ice density this, and so it goes on and on with theoretical and some paleoclimatology predictions.   For me, it’s where is the sun in its cycle and then wait for the balance of factors to line up.    How can anyone sell that global warming set records for snowfall in the mid-Atlantic and record snows in England and Europe with a straight face?    Warming up causes cold and snow?

For the Northeast Corridor of the US, we need the right jet-stream setup whereby the Jet dips deeply into the South Central US and then captures warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and drags it northward, the classic “Nor’easter” storm.    These storms can produce some real sustained snowfalls if the cold will dig in and stay in place.    If not, then they drag too much warm Gulf air with them and it will come as snow initially followed by rain which usually doesn’t help

So it all hinges on whether weather weathers or not.

WEBSITE

MeltSnow.com will have a whole new look and an interactive online forum called “Ask Salty” on our new website which is set to launch shortly.  We will announce the new site in a press release; however, if you have referred to our existing site and found it helpful, then you’ll really like our new website.   It will contain lots of technical information on products, online Material Safety Data Sheets, Technical Data Sheets, and application information for every product we offer which is nearly everything used for chemical melting of snow and ice.    We also have instructional videos on topics such as anti-Icing with liquids along with many other useful hints and tips that we’ve garnered over three decades of focus on snow, ice, and dust management.

I hope to see you at the SIMA Show in Providence RI in June!

QUIRKY FACTS

This is a new feature I’ve decided to add to my newsletters.  I will try to dig up some obscure use for ice melting products with each newsletter that readers might find interesting.

Magnesium Chloride:  Did you know that MAG is used as a coagulant in Nigari process of making Tofu?

Calcium Chloride: Did you know that soaking freshly picked apples in a solution of calcium chloride will prevent cork spotting and bitter pitting?

Salt: Did you know that salt is used in decorative concrete?  It is embedded in the surface of wet concrete, and then it is dissolved with water after the concrete hardens to leave irregular impressions.

Thanks for your time and I hope this newsletter has provided you with some information, some ideas, and helped you plan for winter a little better.   I can be reached at 508-520-3900 and welcome comments and suggestions.

Rob English
President
MeltSnow.com
Chemical Solutions, Inc.

By Rob English

Download Ice Dams 101 (PDF)

The winter of 2008-2009 has seen a return an old nemesis of building owners: ice dams. Heavy snowfall throughout New England has brought a rash of calls to our offices this season regarding how to melt ice dams that have formed on roofs and eves. Which deicer should I use? What is safe? What can I do to melt it and remove the problem? We offer a wide range of products which are often used (incorrectly) to melt ice dams; rock salt, sodium chloride, calcium chloride, magnesium chloride, blended products, and acetate based deicers are used to battle problems on the streets and sidewalks, but ice dam melting is tricky business and should not be entered into without careful evaluation of the pros, cons, and adverse consequences of your approach.

Understanding how and why this is happening is the first step:

Ice dams are formed when melting snow turns to water which runs down a roof and then freezes as it leaves the warmer roof area of the building and enters the open area of the roof eve in sub-freezing temperatures. Ice dams usually occur after a heavy snowfall and several days of sub-freezing temperatures. Warm air inside your building or home leaks into the attic space and will warm the underside of the roof causing snow and ice on the roof to melt. The melted water will drain along the roof, under the snow, until it reaches the cold eve overhang. The eve overhang is usually at the same temperature as the outdoors and the melted water will refreeze and form an ice dam and icicles. The ice dam can cause damage to the roof, which will result in water leaks to the inside. Frequently the result will be a water spot on the ceiling under the roof damage, or water stains streaking down the inside wall. The water damage is not always obvious and may be hidden from view inside the wall, in the attic, or behind a knee wall. Depending up on the design of the building, ice dams may not be an issue and waiting out the problem could be the best answer if you are not getting any damage that warrants immediate action. On the other hand, if water is pouring down your wall and ruining it, then the decision process of what to do and understanding the potential adverse consequences of that action must be carefully evaluated.

The basics of the problem:

Pictured below is a residence that is showing ice dams. If you study this photo, it shows very clearly how the ice dam is formed, and why.

Notice how the rafters of the roof structure are silhouetted by the snowpack on the roof. That’s because warm air leaking into the attic space is in turn melting the snowpack on the roof, however the rafters are providing some level of insulation allowing the snow above them to melt at a much slower rate. There is a section of roof which is not melting in the center and that could be from a finished attic where that specific area was insulated, or possibly by insulated glass skylights that were installed, or it might be that insulation was applied to that area alone. Impossible to tell without getting inside this house and crawling into the attic with this photo to see why some areas have experienced heavy melting while others have not had much at all. In any case the areas of the house which are outside of the attic space, the edges, are still showing a full snowpack and therein lies the problem! Those areas are colder and any runoff of melting will freeze up when it collides with this cold area causing the ice dam.

As the water enters the cold gutter, it freezes. More water coming down the roof from the heat loss continues to freeze up until the gutter is filled and overflowing with ice and icicles. They continue to build up until they form a dam inches thick. Once the dam is high enough, the water on the roof collects and begins to seep under the roofing system and find its way into the building and then trouble begins.

Which deicer do I use to melt the ice dam on my gutters and roof?

With the basics of ice dams now understood, let’s talk about your chemical options to remove it. Just slather it in salt and the problem will go away, right? It should be so simple. Victims of ice dams need to consider all the factors involved in chemically attacking ice dams before they climb up on their roof like Santa and start pouring deicers on them. The varieties of roofing systems that are used in building present a range of considerations and challenges for openers. The first order of business is to evaluate the area of the ice dam as a whole. Is this a problem across the entirety of the structure or is it limited to one area like a valley above the roof overhang? What is the roof material? What is the fastening system used to hold the roof covering on? What is under the overhang where the chemical deicer runoff will go? Do you have plantings that might be damaged by chemical deicer runoff and could that runoff be more or less damaging then just waiting for the ice to melt and fall?

In the photo above we have a building with a very large overhang and significant ice dams and icicles. These pose a threat to pedestrians that use the sidewalk which is directly under this section of building so leaving them in place risks dropping a frozen dagger into someone’s head or shoulders. This particular building is a medical building where many elderly patients pass under these eves and risk of injury is pretty serious. In this case the threat is more falling ice than it is water entering the building…at least the time this photo was taken. Add a couple more feet of snow to this roof and the dynamic will change quickly as the tremendous weight load of 5-6″ of ice on the gutters and overhang threaten to test the engineer’s estimate, the builder’s skills, and insurance company’s budget.

Chemical Removal of ice dams:

Often it is believed that melting the ice dam with an ice melter is the right answer. Since we are in the business of selling ice melters, it’s hard for us suggest otherwise but experience has proven that ice melters on roofs can cause new types of damage which building owners need to consider before using them.

Pouring a granular deicer on the ice and scattering it across the whole area is a waste of deicer and it will likely not work unless you put enough deicer down to melt the volume of ice you have at the prevailing outside temperature. More to the point, an area of ice that is 50 feet long by 1 foot wide by six inches thick is 187 gallons of frozen water [(50×1.0.5)7.4 gallons/cubic foot] and will weight an astounding 1,560 lbs! That area is about equal to the edge of a roof eve. To melt 1500 lbs of ice, you would need to apply nearly 360 lbs deicer if you wanted to melt it at 16 degrees F. So realize we are talking about huge quantities of deicer that would be required to melt an amount of ice that big…and it’s not necessary. By comparison, you could break the underpinning or bond that the ice has on the surface it’s frozen to using only a fraction of that quantity with a careful “hole burning” approach.

Is your roof asphalt shingles? Most common high performance ice melters such as magnesium chloride or calcium chloride will certainly melt the ice, but they may also cause staining of the shingles and could also cause corrosion of the gutters, aluminum siding, or fasteners. Salt will leave a white residue and is very corrosive to unprotected ferrous metals so you might turn your black roof edge into a chalky mess with salt. Wooden gutters will be adversely affected by nearly all chloride deicers – so that knocks out use of rock salt (sodium chloride), calcium chloride, or magnesium chloride. Acetate deicers such as 100% pure CMA (calcium magnesium acetate) or NAC (sodium acetate) will not really work in melting ice. Other common deicers like urea (46-0-0 fertilizer) are only effective above 25 degrees Fahrenheit, and at that point you might as well wait out the remaining 7 degrees to thaw temp. If your roof is a standing seam tin roof, like the one pictured below, the same issues of possible staining or having the coating/paint lift from alkaline pH deicers is another concern.

Does this mean you can’t use deicers to remove an ice dam?

Maybe, but you have to weigh your options carefully. Which is the greater of the evils; the damage from the water leaking in, or the ice itself, or the potential damage from use of deicers?

Here’s a list of things to consider before you jump up there with a pile of fifty pound bags of ice melt and start pouring:

1. What is the roof made of? To be sure it’s safe, test a small area first with your planned attack method.
2. What is under the eve/overhang? Will your attack move the problem from the roof to the ground?
3. What fasteners were used in the roof and will they be susceptible to chloride attack causing them to fail?
4. Where is the brine that you form going to go and will it be dripping on those rare and expensive shrubs under the overhang?

While we are not going to tell you to use chemical deicers on your roof, we will tell you that our ice melt products will melt ice and can turn that ice back into a brine. If you are trying to remove thick ice from a solid sloped surface, here are some tricks of the trade which will help you do it efficiently:

• First, remove the snow above the ice to prevent any more ice from forming. Remove the source and the problem can’t come back.
• Pour small piles of the deicer about the size of a coffee cup of deicer at the beginning edge of the ice formation every foot or so along the length of the area to be deiced.
• Wait for the deicer to bore hole through the ice and then begin to work under the ice breaking the bond it has with the surface which it is frozen to.
• In time with careful and patient work, the deicer will loosen the frozen grip the ice has on the surface allowing mechanical removal.
• By gently prying the ice that is sitting on top of the brine solution that forms between the surface and the ice, you can remove the ice in chunks and then control where it falls instead of waiting for gravity and nature to take pot shots at your windows, shrubs, and pedestrians.

Pouring the ice melter or granular deicer on the ice and scattering it across the whole area is a waste of deicer and it will likely not work unless you put enough deicer down to melt the volume of ice you have at the prevailing outside temperature. More to the point, an area of ice that is 50 feet long by 1 foot wide by six inches thick is 187 gallons of frozen water [(50×1.0.5)7.4 gallons/cubic foot] and will weight an astounding 1,560 lbs! That area is about equal to the edge of a roof eve. To melt 1500 lbs of ice, you would need to apply nearly 360 lbs deicer if you wanted to melt it at 16 degrees F. So realize we are talking about huge quantities of deicer that would be required to melt an amount of ice that big…and it’s not necessary. By comparison, you could break the underpinning or bond that the ice has on the surface it’s frozen to using only a fraction of that quantity with a careful “hole burning” approach.

While I was taking photos for this article, I happened to drive by a local sandwich shop where a maintenance worker was using a claw hammer, a ladder, a pickup truck, and a little more aggressive mechanical approach to removing the ice dam. Here’s what he was doing:

Looks like a good approach eh? Seems that he’s effectively chipping away the ice and saving the gutter and roof from water damage inside the building by removing the ice completely…right? Well maybe not.

As I looked at the ground under his ladder and on the sidewalk, I saw what he was actually removing along with the ice: THE ROOF! With each blow of the hammer, the ice’s hold on the roofing shingles was dear and it wasn’t leaving without the shingles that was frozen to, so both shattered together and went to the ground where he was sweeping them up and putting the ice and debris in the back of his pickup.

While at first glance this seems like an effective approach, the cost of replacing this section of roof in spring, plus the virtual guarantee of water damage from the now missing roof allowing water to get into the sheathing and eve might be a false economy. Remove the ice dam and replace the roof!

From my own experience, I can tell you that the best thing I’ve found for ice dams is to first remove the source; the snow above the eve must be shoveled off. Once that is done, assuming that action didn’t ruin the shingle system and roof which in my case the first time I did it, I did indeed destroy my own roof, then you can decide if leaving the ice there is going to cause any problems. If you were to use deicers to remove the ice dam and then didn’t remove the snow above the ice dam, then you can be assured the ice dam will return shortly as more melting snow comes sliding down the roof.

Installing heat tape or heating elements along the eve, and a moisture barrier along ice dam prone roof areas is a good idea and works well to prevent them from forming. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

The safest and most innocuous high performance deicer we offer is our MAG Pellet. It’s low toxicity, low chloride, pet safe, and while we don’t suggest putting it on your cereal, in limited quantities it’s generally not damaging to most surfaces with the exception of NEW concrete. On new concrete do not use any deicers for two years minimum.

Deciding whether or not to attack an ice dam on your roof with a chemical deicer is a balancing act: you balance performance which is total removal of the ice dam, against adverse consequences such as staining of the roof system, loss of paint or coating on gutters and siding from runoff, damage to shrubs and turf under the roof when the concentrated brine hits them. Covering sensitive shrubs and the area under the ice dam with a tarp might be a good idea, but we want to be clear that we are not advocating the use of our products for removing ice dams as they are designed to work on pavement and traveled surfaces – not roof systems. If you were to use any of our products to remove ice dams, you would be doing so at your own sole risk and responsibility.

Ice Dam Attack Checklist:

• Don’t get on your roof to try solve this problem, it could be dangerous and you might create more problems than you have with the ice dam.
• Avoid standing on the ground and “chipping away” at the ice. Not only could this cause damage to your roof, but you and others on the ground can be seriously injured by falling ice, debris, or tools.
• Contacting a roofing contractor to fix your roof leak will not prevent future ice dams.
• Seal air leaks and sealing duct air leaks in your attic to stop warm air leakage (the source of the problem).
• After sealing leaks, add additional insulation in your attic.
• Provide adequate attic ventilation so that the underside of the roof and outside air are at the same temperature. Check to make sure attic insulation is not blocking roof ventilation.
• Clean leaves and other debris from gutters before the first snow. This will help prevent ice build-up in gutters.
• Hire a contractor who is an energy specialist or specializes in air sealing to do an in-home evaluation.
• Burn the photo of the chips of shingles on the ground into your memory to remind you that swinging a claw hammer and chipping away removes a lot more than just the ice
• Think it all through before you start. If you hire contractor to remove the ice and snow, make sure they are not a hack that will leave a bigger problem than they came to fix. The contractor is only there for the day and you are going to live with what he does for a good long time, so make sure he is experienced and check references for fixing this type of problem.
• A roof rake is a well known old tool in the Yankee toolbox; it’s a diagonal slide shovel on a telescopic handle that rides over the snow when pushing up and dives into it when pulling down and is used to remove snow from roofs from the ground. I’ve used them and they work as long as your roof is not too high or too shallow to effectively reach with a roof-rake.

“He that will not apply new remedies must expect new evils”

To our customers and distributor partners:

First things first: Happy New Year!

In last month’s State of the Salt Address, we talked about recent events that along with on-going problems which had combined in such a way as to create “the perfect storm” of deicing demand which our distributors and customers needed to know about.

In this month’s newsletter, we will update some of that information. Like previous newsletters, we provide dozens of links to the data and we openly share with you how we interpret this information. You can look at the same tea leaves as we do and decide if you see it the same way or not.

Normally, I wait until the last paragraph to summarize the statements and analysis but in this newsletter, we’re going to straight to the bottom line: “Houston, we have a problem.” Things have not improved at all and we are teetering on full collapse as an industry.

Deicer inventories are not sufficient to meet current demand on a National scale. The US market is still severely short on highway salt and now liquid and packaged deicers are in the same boat.

Road Salt
Looking at bulk road salt supplies, the industry is lugging hard to cover record demand which is now in overdrive with back to back ice storms and snow storms in New England just before Christmas, followed by a wide area New Year’s Eve storm.

In fact, this is the first time in my life that I can remember seeing snow cover from Portland OR to Portland ME. That all pulls hard on road salt stockpiles that were insufficient to start with, and now are dwindling quickly. My view is that the Northeast US is poised on a precipice of trouble and if we get clobbered with snow in January as it now appears to be very likely, we will collapse. If that happens, then the Northeast will be no better off than the mid-west and the entire country will be on an instant salt-free diet. This is serious business and I would expect to see dramatic maneuvers from government agencies “annexing” salt stockpiles and allocating private industry reserves. This has not happened in the last 15 or more years that I can remember, but I have seen it before and you can expect it again. The State Police will take over and manage ALL salt stockpiles at the manufacturers and they make sure that only municipalities get salt as it will be done in the interest of public safety. This is serious business and as we have said consistently since last summer: if you need deicers you need to have them within your control now or you will likely not get them. Even worse will be next winter if this winter doesn’t ease up immediately weather wise.

According to the recently released State of Ohio report, these shortages are to a large extent a self-inflicted wound. That report is a very interesting read because for the first time in my deicing chemicals career, municipal government is finally recognizing that they must assume the bulk of the risk of whether it snows if they want to have salt when it snows. Private business has always known this and works accordingly, but municipal government’s dictatorial bid policies on set aside and tonnage requirements went a long way to catalyze much of the current shortages. The industry is pleased that Ohio stepped up and admitted that these policies are a major part of the problem. Here’s a revealing statement going towards the source of the salt shortages which is contained in the report linked above:

“…Finally, an inherent challenge in the min-max contract is determining which end of the spectrum is most important: frugality suggests the state would want to buy the least it is required to purchase, but caution suggests the state must guarantee it can access enough material in a “worst case” scenario. If the minimum is set too high, the state may be forced to build more storage capacity. If the maximum is set too low, the state may be unable to refill stockpiles after the winter months are over…”

They call this the bull-whip effect and anyone who is interested in this should read this report because as these state agencies come to grips with the reality of their actions, changes will likely initially err on the side of caution, meaning they are going to guarantee to take more on the front side and expect less on the back side from suppliers. Think this will ease availability? I sure don’t – at lease not initially. It will take years for this balance.

Packaged Deicers
Packaged deicers are now in full meltdown with only spot locations of sporadic available inventory. Dow’s “order control” (allocation) on their flake calcium chloride products that was put in place in early October continues and flake calcium chloride is essentially gone in 50 lb. bags for intents and purposes. It’s available, but lead times are weeks and what is going out the door is going only to existing DOW flake calcium customers so don’t knock on that door unless you have been their friend for a while and have a baseline allocation on DowFlake. Tetra has been totally sold out now for weeks in most warehouses and reinforcements are not expected before February. Typically in our end of the business, we declare the season over somewhere around Valentine’s day, and accordingly, any February arriving material will be too little too late in our opinion. So flake calcium chloride is pretty much cooked and you can forget about it in any package but super sacks – which by the way we have a very good inventory of at this time. If you are unfamiliar with super sacks, they are a 2,205 lb. bag on a pallet and are used for “bulk” applications where you will be using at least that amount with each application. Contact us about super sacks because we offer them for every dry deicer we sell with the exception of road salt. Looking towards China for relief on calcium chloride has been unproductive as we’ve not seen them come back from the Olympic shut-down in July. I don’t know what’s up with the Chinese manufacturers, but it is clear their economy is in big trouble and exports of deicers have slowed a trickle at best.

Our packaged MAG Flake and Pellet inventories are nearly all gone. We are out of product in all but our Boston warehouse on all flavors of MAG. The best products are the first to go and MAG has been a little too successful and it was sucked up like it was in a tornado selling out an entire winter’s inventory completely before November 1st. To make matters worse, Dead Sea Works has had some undisclosed issues which have slowed the normally robust in-season ocean deliveries of MAG to a trickle so we are spoon feeding our MAG customers on a good day, and being beaten like a mule on bad days for lack of inventory. There is nothing we can do but continue to allocate based on previous purchases and hope for better days.

The only bright spot we have in packaged deicers is our Pure & Natural Deicer. Inventories of that product are still strong as is our packaged Halite.

Liquid Deicers
We continue to get a lot of calls about using liquids to replace rock salt. You will find many schools of thought on this topic but in our experience liquid deicers cannot replace salt! Think about it. Liquid deicers are at least 70% water so when you add water to snow and ice, do you think you’re going to get less snow and ice?

Liquids have a great position in snow and ice management when used for pre-wetting salt, or used in anti-icing where a small brine layer is applied to surfaces before the onset of snow to prevent the snow and ice from freezing to the surface. Typical benefit of anti-icing is that you get a black and wet surface under the cutting edge of the plow on the first pass. Beyond that, there is nothing more in our experience. Statements that pre-application can melt the first “x” inches of snow is a statement we’d expect to hear from PT Barnum. How does any material defy gravity and melt up?

There are three basic types of liquids which we find in these two areas of snow and ice management: natural brines, manufactured brines such as liquid calcium chloride and liquid magnesium chloride, and boutique products which are any of the previous two with an additive. Some of the additives have benefit and value, but most don’t really measure up when considered on a cost/benefit analysis. The boutique products are very expensive often comprising less than 20% of the liquid ingredients but more than doubling the price.

I received a call from a reporter with SNOW Magazine earlier this week. They are working on an article for their February issue on liquids. Watch for this as I hope they will “get it right” and communicate the facts and debunk the myths about liquids.

Back to the three basic types, we offer all three. Lots of the callers are looking for calcium chloride and readers of this newsletter need to recognize the facts on liquid calcium chloride. We have essentially only two manufacturers of liquid calcium chloride in North America: Dow and Tetra. Both are sold out and have been for quite some time, but now we have a new evil in that Tetra have issued a letter warning of their supply problems on liquid calcium, and advising that product is extremely tight and prices are skyrocketing. If you think that Dow can “back-fill” the salt short US market with liquid calcium chloride, then there is a nice bridge in Brooklyn you can buy at a great price. The liquid calcium chloride market is in equally serious trouble to the salt market right now and there is no relief in sight. It will be years before this can begin to stabilize.

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We do not advocate the use of only liquids for snow and ice management. While some people are doing it and getting away with it, our experience with the friction loss testing which we did with the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority over 10 years ago working with State Police professional drivers proved that applying only a little bit too much liquid for conditions creates a virtual death trap on the pavement; it is black and wet and looks right, but in fact is so slippery that its like driving on a skating rink.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US have too much humidity in the air to use the same techniques that work in arid mountain states like Colorado and Washington when you’re using magnesium and calcium chloride liquids. In arid climates, 100% of the moisture these hygroscopic chemicals pull is from the snow and ice. In the East, these materials see competition between the snow and ice and much higher atmospheric moisture levels than in arid high altitudes.

Salt brines are definitely a good option and AOT, the Vermont Agency of Transportation has just opened up their new $120k brine making facility in Colchester, VT. They are looking to cut their salt use by 10% with salt brine and if effective will save AOT $700k/yr meaning the facility could pay itself off in a matter of weeks. This is pretty interesting because this is not coastal North Carolina with a few nights of freezing temps, this is Vermont where night temperatures reach -30 routinely, so the naysayers on salt brine will want to watch this one closely. Vermont may have the last laugh at calcium and magnesium chloride liquids.

Liquids work great in conjunction with dry material and even allow a 30% reduction in dry deicer application rates when used properly in pre-wetting, and, liquids work great in anti-icing where you spray in advance of the arrival of snowfall to prevent it from sticking to the pavement. But outside of those two proven applications in our region, we don’t support or recommend the use of liquids to be used solely in place of salt. Disaster is imminent in our experience and you need to have ground speed controls and very specific application rates to get effective direct application of liquids for anti-icing. Know what you are doing when applying liquids or be prepared to get to know your legal representatives and insurance providers a lot better! Liquids work great, but they are not a replacement for dry deicers. We do offer pre-treated salt (pre-wetted) and it is readily available from most of our ocean terminals. Check with your representative for price and availability in both bulk and packaged pre-treated salt.

Weather is the Key
In my October 2008 State of the Salt address, I talked about sunspots and the fact that back in October they had the first arctic blast and heavy snowfall in the Pacific Northwest that they’ve seen in over 100 years. Since that time, they have shattered records for snowfall and now the Pacific Northwest states are consuming deicers like never before. Think that’s going to help our market recover? Guess again Batman. I’m not going to go over the same ground again discussed in my October newsletter, but many of you might want to go back and read that because all the things I said could wreak havoc on our already upside down market have now occurred. The really bad news here is that we are not going to recover and the stage is now set for phenomenal deicer shortages and problems in the 2009/2010 winter. Don’t kid yourself about this. If you think this year is bad for supply problems, you haven’t seen anything yet.

In my November newsletter I spoke about nature signs that an ice storm was coming in New England. In December, six weeks after I wrote that, we were hit with the worst ice storm we’ve seen in decades. It paralyzed the region and we still have people without power five weeks later. Hard to believe but all these factors go back to support that there just might be something to lack of sunspot activity and severe weather in the Northern hemisphere.

Caveat emptor
We have seen a lot of unproven sources of salt arriving at the banquet table. A lot of salt buyers are getting taken to the cleaners as they buy what they think is the same quality and type of salt they’ve had in the past from these new sources. When a new source of supply shows up in the midst of unprecedented shortages, it’s a good time to practice due diligence as a buyer and make sure you know what you are committing to. They are here to make a quick killing with product they’ve never brought into the US and many of these first buyers will be their crash test dummies.

We’ve seen some salt from the Middle East, North Africa, and other countries that has issues in our view. Be on the watch for it. Salt with high moisture content is easy to buy on the cheap because it will freeze solid when the temperatures drop. See how much your customers like chiseling their frozen up stockpiles and bags to understand how just 1-2% additional moisture can wreak havoc on something as simple as trying to load a truck at 20 degrees at 3AM.

After moisture content, look at the particle size distribution. We were offered a ship of salt that had a specification of 24% ½” size. Think about that. How many windshields or storefront plate glass do you want to buy this winter with half inch rocks flying off the spinner and treated surfaces you just hit? How effective is that ½” hunk of salt when it is jammed in the bottom of your sidewalk spreader with 100 lbs more on top of it? How much will your customers love you then? What about impurities and what are they? These mined materials are contaminated naturally with other elements and some of them are very problematic. Demand that your deicer supplier give you an analysis of what they are selling to you right down to the trace elements. If they tell you it’s a “proprietary formula”, then tell them that the Federal and State Right to Know Laws require they disclose what’s in their product and what the percentages are. Don’t let them blow smoke in your eyes in an attempt to blind your view and throw you off the scent. If they start dancing when you ask them for certifications of the contents of what they are selling you, then think about what else they are deliberately trying to hide. We are not sending rockets into orbit here; we’re melting snow and there are no secret formulas – only secrets they don’t want you to know – like how much regular old rock salt is really in that stuff they say is environmentally friendly! It is basic high school chemistry and don’t let anyone tell you differently. If they are hiding what they are selling to you, then you should wonder why.

These are all things that most of our customers don’t have to think about because we are carefully evaluating new and existing sources constantly and making certain that the quality of the deicing materials you get from us will work for you. We don’t want that 3AM wakeup call with your customer throwing a nutty on the other end of the phone because we just stopped traffic on two interstates and burned up the motors on your application equipment trying to spread junky deicers that didn’t work. We are proud of the quality of our products and we will put our certified chemical analysis up to prove it! Will your supplier provide a certified statement of what they just sold to you?

Bottom Line
The geese are almost all cooked.

Ok, maybe it’s not quite that bad, but I can’t stress enough just how serious these problems are and the fact that they are not going to go away. This heavy early winter across the whole country is going to cause most state agencies to “up the ante” on salt demand again next year and if you have been reading these newsletters from me, then you know we can’t handle the existing increases – let alone more!

My message is clear: we still have product and our policy continues as first come/first served.

Here are a few Google News searches that you might find interesting to read:

• Salt prices
• Salt shortages
• New Ice Age Coming
• Alternatives impacted

Tell your customers that these supply problems are here to stay for at least few more years and when it snows, delays in deliveries and cancelled orders will be pretty commonplace. My biggest fear is we get whacked with heavy snow that causes the governments to start taking over control of what we sell and force us to sell where they say, not where we want to. Once that happens, it’s out of our hands.

Rob English
President
www.meltsnow.com

To our customers and distributor partners:

In our previous State of the Salt addresses, we talked about recent events that along with on-going problems had combined in such a way as to create “the perfect storm” of deicing demand which our distributors and customers needed to know about.

In this month’s newsletter we will continue to update much of that information. Like previous newsletters, we provide dozens of links to the data and openly share with you how we interpret this information.

Things have not changed in a positive way and deicer inventories are not sufficient to meet demand on a National scale. The US market is still well over 2MM tons short on highway salt. Packaged deicers seem to be in deeper trouble and shortages in premium deicers are now reality as we predicted.

EARLY TROUBLE IN PREMIUM DEICERS
In late September and early October, Dow placed their flake calcium chloride on order control and allocation.   Demand was unrelenting and Dow was first to get in front of the problem by enacting order control.  Following their move, calcium chloride flake sales from others including us went into a frenzy.  Tetra’s inventories along with many importer inventories quickly fell under record demand and now many regional warehouses are sold out of calcium chloride flakes.   Reinforcements are not immediately on the horizon and when some of the imported inventories will be reloaded is unclear.  So flake calcium chloride is gone for at least the time being.   That drives demand to competing products like MAG.

MAG products were the next to find the bottom of the inventory pile in our main warehouse located in Port Newark, NJ. MAG flakes in 50 lb. bags are currently sold out and new inventory is not expected before the middle of December. MAG Pellets in 50 lb. bags is also in extremely tight supply and we are now working down back-orders and carefully allocating product to existing customers and distributors only.  Inventory of bulk MAG in super sacks is gone as well.

BAGGED HALITE AND ROCK SALT
We’ve heard conflicting reports on what is happening with bagged halite from Cargill and Morton so we are not able to give any definitive information as far as their availability.  At this time, we continue to accept and ship orders for our own bagged halite products without limitation but we are definitely seeing the inventory dwindle quickly.

Compass Minerals reported record demand: “Our consumer and industrial business also posted a very strong quarter, with 24% sales volume improvement and average selling prices up 7%. Now half of our year-over-year sales volume growth came from retailers and professional service providers who began early the replenishment of their depleted consumer and professional de-icing product inventory.”  Please notice that in the case of Compass Minerals, VOLUME is up 24%, but selling prices are only up 7%.   So while everyone might think that prices are going haywire, at the producer level they are up, but not up by the amount that is being reported.    Price doesn’t matter anyway – it’s all about availability and therein is where trouble lies.

HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE AND HOW DID THIS HAPPEN?
I get this question twenty times a day from all sides of the market.   The answer is simple; in round numbers in the years preceding last winter, the US demand for road salt hovered between 14 and 18 million tons per year, with the winter of ’06/’07 just about at the 14 million ton mark.   Last season in ’07/’08, demand was upwards of 20 million tons nationwide and supplies still fell substantially short of what the market really wanted.

That record demand last winter cleaned out salt supplies all the way back to the floor of the mines.  Production was put into overdrive but demand continued its unrelenting pace even well into March of ’08 which is abnormal by all previous experience and accounts.

As those late-season predominately mid-west buyers continued to pull salt late into the winter they got a little panicky as they found supplies gone and the reality of taking deliveries from places as far away as 1,000 miles or more.   It was expensive, delayed, and painful to find and procure.   To avoid the pain of ’07/’08 again, municipal government substantially increased their bid proposal packages for the 2008/2009 winter by over 2 million tons.  So now demand goes from 14 million to 22 million tons in one season!

Summarizing all of this in practical terms, what it means is that by our calculations the North American road salt market increased by over 350,000 truckloads in less than 24 months.   It increased by that amount growing from 14 million tons of demand to 22 million tons of demand.   Therein lies the problem – plenty of salt in the ground in mines but not anywhere nearly enough salt on the ground in stockpiles.   The industry has been running wide open since last winter trying to catch up and pull ahead and it’s not too dissimilar from trying to fill up a swimming pool from the creek by carrying one thimble of water at a time!   It’s a very significant task that will take years of production to normalize and balance, or a year or two of no snow.  It has to come from either increased production or reduced demand but only one or both of those events will alleviate the problem and until then, these worlds will continue to collide.

PACKAGED DEICERS
Packaged deicers are quickly falling into serious problems. Dow announced implementation of “order control” (allocation) on their flake calcium chloride products in early October, and we are seeing some serious supply problems on calcium flake with the lack of US production beyond Dow and a lack of imported material. Bagged salt inventories are falling very quickly as we predicted and expected, and most salt producers are expected to shut down bagging operations for the winter on or about December 1st and focus on supplying the insanely robust municipal markets with bulk. Our packaged MAG inventories are now depleted at a time when we normally are building inventory in preparation of winter. Demand has steadily picked up all fall instead of letting off in November as has been the case historically when customers have now received initial shipments for winter and wait for snows to deplete them before reloading.   This is putting the squeeze on all forms of packaged deicers. The packaged deicer market is very close now to going into full thermonuclear meltdown with zero availability if we get snow before year end in the Midwest and/or the Northeast.   Not to sound like a broken record, but we have warned of this since early in the summer and our message is unchanged.

We are seeing a lot of demand for our Pure & Natural Deicer blend. This new product is tinted green for easy identification of treated areas and we have nearly five million pounds of it in our new Mansfield warehouse. Packed in 50 lb. heat sealed poly bags, 50 bags per pallet, Pure & Natural Deicer answers the call for a deicer with color. Look for us to add color to some of our regular deicers next season as we have finally identified a safe, biodegradable dye that breaks down quickly and is environmentally safe like our products.

ROAD SALT
Looking at bulk road salt supplies: overall we feel that we are ok with our multiple positions in the Northeast US, but clearly the industry is lugging hard to cover record demand. In the Midwest prices continue to rise and availability continues to dwindle creating panic and driving hungry buyers to the plentiful coasts for their needs. This will eventually put us in supply trouble if it doesn’t stop soon.

LIQUID DEICERS
Let’s talk briefly about alternative products: We seem to be getting a lot of calls for liquids to replace salt. You will find many schools of thought on this topic but we are going to stick our neck right out on the chopping block here and now: in our experience liquid deicers cannot replace salt! Think about it. Liquid deicers are at least 70% water, so when adding water to snow and ice, do you think you’re going to get less snow and ice?

Chemical management of snow and ice is for the most part basic high school science. You add a freeze point lowering material to frozen water (snow and ice) to push the freeze point below the prevailing temperature. Simple right? Add salt to water and it won’t freeze at 32. Some chemicals are far more effective and have much lower freeze points, but the basic premise of lowering the freeze point to turn that snow and ice back into a liquid is what is done in 95% of all chemical deicing operations. How that ties to liquids is that when you eliminate dry materials and replace them with 70% water, you have not changed the chemistry of your objective, but you have increased the amount of brine you need to make to cover the additional water you’re adding.

We do not advocate the use of only liquids for snow and ice management. While some people are doing it and getting away with it, our experience with the friction loss testing, which we did with the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority over 10 years ago, working with State Police professional drivers proved that applying only a little bit too much liquid for conditions creates a virtual death trap on the pavement. It is black and wet and looks right, but in fact is so slippery that it’s like driving on a skating rink.

back to top

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US have too much humidity in the air to use the same techniques that work in arid mountain states like Colorado and Washington when you’re using magnesium and calcium chloride liquids. In arid climates 100% of the moisture these hygroscopic chemicals pull is from the snow and ice. In the East these materials see competition between the snow and ice and much higher atmospheric moisture levels than in arid high altitudes.

Liquids work great in conjunction with dry material and even allow a 30% reduction in dry deicer application rates when used properly in pre-wetting, and liquids work great in anti-icing where you spray in advance of the arrival of snowfall to prevent it from sticking to the pavement. But outside of those two proven applications in our region, we don’t support or recommend the use of liquids to be used solely in place of salt. Disaster is imminent in our experience and you need to have ground speed controls and very specific application rates to get effective direct application of liquids for anti-icing. Know what you are doing when applying liquids or be prepared to get to know your legal representatives and insurance providers a lot better! Liquids work great, but they are not a replacement for dry deicers. We do offer pre-treated salt (pre-wetted) and it is readily available from most of our ocean terminals. Check with your representative for price and availability in both bulk and packaged pre-treated salt.

THE SILVER BULLET
It seems that everyone is looking for the silver bullet deicer.  The one that is plentiful, cheap, and environmentally acceptable.   It doesn’t exist in our experience and if it did, we would certainly be all over it.   There is no one size fits all deicer that satisfies the needs of the many; low corrosion, low temperature performance, low toxicity, safe to sprinkle on your cereal for breakfast, etc.   The snow and ice management business is a balancing act of balancing performance, which is wet pavement, against adverse consequences such as environmental contamination, concrete damage, re-freeze, slick roads, slip and fall claims, etc.   To understand more on this, you might want to read our “How to Pick the Right Ice Melter for Your Needs” article.

WEATHER IS THE KEY
Who do you want to believe and who can you believe? Accuweather meteorologist Joe Bastardi says we are going to get creamed with snow this winter and is predicting at least two Nor’easters for the I95 corridor from Richmond to Boston. The Farmer’s Almanac says the same thing as do many of the “talking heads” in the weather business.

Tina Carter, the operations manager for one of our truckers, told me on the phone today that over the weekend they lost all of the oak leaves in their yard.  I commented that the rains in Boston last weekend did the same thing in my own yard and normally those oak leaves hold on for dear life until January or February but they are all down now and it’s unusual.   She said that she has seen this in past years where we had ice storms.  Somehow, nature knows and it unloads any leaves and windfall in a final effort to make the tree’s profile as minimal as possible so that the ice will not cling to the leaves and bring the tree down killing it.   She also said that as fast as the acorns fell, they too were gathered and put away by busy squirrels.  She continued her thought train saying that squirrels can dig for acorns in snow, but ice locks them out of needed food supplies and that’s why they are gathering so heavily.

Who knows?  I know this for certain:  From the viewpoint of the salt salesman, one ice storm is equivalent to about five to seven snow storms worth of deicer demand.   Should we start the season with one or two ice storms, then we will never recover as an industry and things will be extremely bad from a supply standpoint.  We better all hope that Tina’s analysis is wrong if we hope to make it this winter with enough deicers!

CAVEAT EMPTOR
Last month, we talked about what we will disrespectfully call “Johnnie-come-latelys” to the market.  These are companies who hear about the salt shortages and think they have the ability to make a deal and come sweeping in and collect windfall profits on record demand and prices.

We are not changing our message here at all: A lot of salt buyers are going to get taken to the cleaners this season as they buy what they think is the same quality and type of salt they’ve had in the past from these new sources. When a new source of supply shows up in the midst of unprecedented shortages, it’s a good time to practice due diligence as a buyer and make sure you know what you are committing to. They are here to make a quick killing with product they’ve never brought into the US and many of these first buyers will be their crash-test dummies. We’ve seen some salt from the Middle East, North Africa, and other countries that has some issues in our view. Be on the watch for it. Salt with high moisture content is easy to buy on the cheap because it will freeze solid when the temperatures drop. See how much your customers like chiseling their frozen up stockpiles and bags to understand how just 1-2% additional moisture can wreck havoc on something as simple as trying to load a truck at 20 degrees at 3AM.

After moisture content, look at the particle size distribution. We were offered a ship of salt that had a specification of 24% ½” size. More to the point, watch this news report from Cedar Rapids, Iowa KCRG Channel 9 to see what I’m talking about.

How many windshields or storefront plate glass windows do you want to buy this winter with half inch rocks flying off the spinner and treated surfaces you just hit? How effective is that ?” hunk of salt when it is jammed in the bottom of your sidewalk spreader with 100 lbs more on top of it? How much will your customers love you then? What about impurities and what are they? These mined materials are contaminated naturally with other elements and some of them are very problematic. Demand that your deicer supplier give you an analysis of what they are selling to you right down to the trace elements. If they tell you it’s a “proprietary formula”, then tell them that the Federal and State Right to Know Laws require they disclose what’s in their product and what the percentages are. Don’t let them blow smoke in your eyes in an attempt to blind your view and throw you off the scent. If they start dancing when you ask them for certifications of the contents of what they are selling you, then think about what else they are deliberately trying to hide. We are not sending rockets into orbit here; we’re melting snow and there are no secret formulas – only secrets they don’t want you to know – like how much regular old rock salt is really in that stuff they say is environmentally friendly! It is basic high school chemistry and don’t let anyone tell you differently. If they are hiding what they are selling to you, then you should wonder why.

These are all things that most of our customers don’t have to think about because we are carefully evaluating new and existing sources constantly and making certain that the quality of the deicing materials you get from us will work for you. We don’t want that 3AM wakeup call with your customer throwing a nutty on the other end of the phone because we just stopped traffic on two interstates and burned up the motors on your application equipment trying to spread junky deicers that didn’t work. We are proud of the quality of our products and we will put our certified chemical analysis up to prove it! Will your supplier provide a certified statement of what they just sold to you?

BOTTOM LINE
We have been consistent in our message all year; if you need deicers this winter and want to be assured of having them, you need to get them in your hands long before flakes arrive. In some cases it’s already too late; our calcium chloride flakes winter inventory is now weeks from being sold out. Dow is already sold out. There are limited reinforcements on the horizon at this point as a worldwide shortage of calcium chloride created by record snow and oil field demand continues to suck it up like a shop vac.

Stay in touch with us and talk to your sales representative so you can understand what the current lead times are for the products which you buy and need.   Most of our products are still available, but we are not a bottomless pit and we will find that our warehouse has walls and a floor sooner rather than later.

Here are a few Google News searches that you might find interesting to read:

• Salt prices
• Salt shortages
• New Ice Age Coming
• Alternatives impacted

Tell your customers to be ready for continued supply problems when it snows and delays in deliveries the closer we get to snow season because these kinds of problems are not corrected quickly, or within one season.

Rob English
President
www.meltsnow.com

In last month’s communiqué, we talked about recent events that along with on-going problems had combined in such a way as to create “the perfect storm” of deicing demand which our distributors and customers needed to know about.

In this month’s newsletter, we want to update some of that information and tell you where things have improved and where things have declined. Like previous newsletters, we provide dozens of links to the data and we openly share with you how we interpret this information. You can look at the same tea leaves we do and decide if you see it the same or not.

In a nutshell, we still read the information pretty much the same as we did in September; deicer inventories are not sufficient to meet demand on a National scale. The US market is still well over 2MM tons short on highway salt. OK, so that’s the bad news. The good news is that those of us who are located along the Atlantic seaboard are not anywhere nearly as hard hit by this as those customers in the Midwest and Central United States.

In The News
I participated in a conference call/Webinar in late August with Dick Hanneman, the President of the Salt Institute, which is a salt industry association. He has spoken with the press and major news agencies regarding the current salt crisis and some of his public statements are now making national news regularly. We have plenty of salt in the ground, but not enough on the ground and in simple terms that’s the problem.

There are conflicting reports regarding the extent of damage at Morton’s plant in Inagua, Bahamas. Locally in New England, customers who have dealt with Morton are being told that they have no more than 30% of the salt volume available for the Northeast that they had last year. According to the Bahamian papers, they are still cleaning up and recovering from the extensive damge. Who is going to pick up that shortfall and how?

Packaged Deicers
Packaged deicers are quickly falling into problems. Dow announced implementation of “order control” (allocation) on their flake calcium chloride products two weeks ago and we are seeing some serious supply problems on calcium flake with the lack of US production beyond Dow and lack of imported material. Bagged salt inventories are falling quickly as we predicted and expected and lead times with most manufacturers are out as much as 7 weeks as of the first of the month. Our packaged MAG inventories are decreasing at a time when we normally are building in preparation of winter. Demand is picking up instead of letting off and this is putting the squeeze on. Unless things look a little rosier here, we think these lead times for packaged deicers of all flavors will only increase steadily until winter and then will go into full thermonuclear meltdown if we get snow before year end in the Midwest and/or the Northeast.

Road Salt
Looking at bulk road salt supplies, overall we feel that we are ok but clearly the industry is lugging hard to cover record demand. No real horror shows as of yet in the East, but in the Midwest prices are skyrocketing and availability continues to dwindle creating panic and driving hungry buyers to the plentiful coasts for their needs. This will eventually put us in supply trouble if it doesn’t stop soon.

Liquid Deicers
Let’s talk briefly about alternative products: We seem to be getting a lot of calls for liquids to replace salt. You will find many schools of thought on this topic but we are going to stick our neck right out on the chopping block here and now: in our experience liquid deicers cannot replace salt! Think about it. Liquid deicers are at least 70% water so when you add water to snow and ice, do you think you’re going to get less snow and ice?

Chemical management of snow and ice is for the most part basic high school science. You add a freeze point lowering material to frozen water (snow and ice) to push the freeze point below the prevailing temperature. Simple right? Add salt to water and it won’t freeze at 32. Some chemicals are far more effective and have much lower freeze points, but the basic premise of lowering the freeze point to turn that snow and ice back into a liquid is what is done in 95% of all chemical deicing operations. How that ties to liquids is that when you eliminate dry materials and replace them with 70% water, you have not changed the chemistry of your objective, but you have increased the amount of brine you need to make to cover the additional water you’re adding.

We do not advocate the use of only liquids for snow and ice management. While some people are doing it and getting away with it, our experience with the friction loss testing which we did with the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority over 10 years ago working with State Police professional drivers proved that applying only a little bit too much liquid for conditions creates a virtual death trap on the pavement; it is black and wet and looks right, but in fact is so slippery that its like driving on a skating rink.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US have too much humidity in the air to use the same techniques that work in arid mountain states like Colorado and Washington when you’re using magnesium and calcium chloride liquids. In arid climates, 100% of the moisture these hygroscopic chemicals pull is from the snow and ice. In the East, these materials see competition between the snow and ice and much higher atmospheric moisture levels than in arid high altitudes.

Liquids work great in conjunction with dry material and even allow a 30% reduction in dry deicer application rates when used properly in pre-wetting, and, liquids work great in anti-icing where you spray in advance of the arrival of snowfall to prevent it from sticking to the pavement. But outside of those two proven applications in our region, we don’t support or recommend the use of liquids to be used solely in place of salt. Disaster is imminent in our experience and you need to have ground speed controls and very specific application rates to get effective direct application of liquids for anti-icing. Know what you are doing when applying liquids or be prepared to get to know your legal representatives and insurance providers a lot better! Liquids work great, but they are not a replacement for dry deicers. We do offer pre-treated salt (pre-wetted) and it is readily available from most of our ocean terminals. Check with your representative for price and availability in both bulk and packaged pre-treated salt.

Weather is the Key
Who do you want to believe and who can you believe? Accuweather metorologist Joe Bistardi says we are going to get creamed with snow this winter and is predicting at least to Nor’easters for the I95 corridor from Richmond to Boston. The Farmer’s Almanac says the same thing as do many of the “talking heads” in the weather business.

There is an interesting new issue which has poked its head over the horizon and we’ve been watching this closely because it seems to have a direct affect on our weather: sunspots. More to the point, for those of you who live to see snow, you noticed we have already had our first arctic blast and heavy snowfall in the Pacific Northwest and that was last week; THE EARLIEST snow they’ve seen in over 100 years.

We have all heard Al Gore’s global warming presentations. I won’t get into them other than to say that on a personal level, I don’t subscribe to them. I actually think that Al has it both right and wrong; I think he’s right in that we are in global warming and wrong in that this is the beginning of it. More to the point I have read for a few years an on-going body of evidence that confirms we have been in global warming for about the last 100,000 years or so – otherwise we’d be still sitting under 300’ of glacial ice. My belief is that we are at the end of global warming and turning the corner on the next ice age.

Before everyone hits that delete key or tosses this in the trash, please hear me out. These climate cycles are clearly something that none of us have our arms around and no one can say definitively what’s really happening; science, the Farmer’s Almanac, wooly caterpillars, or my arthritic ankles – they all appear to be equally wrong and unreliable.

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We had global warming for the last 50,000 or so years – that is undeniable simply based on glacial ice receding and our geology. Those round stones around your house got tumbled under the millions of tons of ice that pushed them down from Canada. But what about this new ice age you ask?

To know more about this please do a little light reading at places like the International Climate and Science Coalition, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, and this 2004 article in Science Daily. Truth or myth? I don’t know, you tell me. Sunspots virtually ended early-winter last winter and immediately following that we had the hardest, coldest, snowiest winter in 50 years across the entire northern hemisphere. Before dismissing this as quack science and embracing the Al Gore doctrine, please read up and form your own views. I think you’ll be a little bit surprised and enlightened in what you find.

I have been in the snow and ice control chemical business for 35 years. In that time I have noticed that things seem to run in cycles. A former competitor once summed it up by saying the deicer business is two years of mediocrity, followed by one year of bliss, followed by two years of misery. What he meant was one out of five years would be great, two lousy, and two average but not necessarily in that order.

We have seen a lot of those “mediocrity years” in certain regions and that was a significant factor in the municipal and private markets being lulled into a sense of false security over the past 6 or 7 years in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. It hadn’t snowed like “the old days” for almost a decade so who needs a lot deicers on hand? They found out the hard way last winter and they are still reeling and finding out both financially and with severe shortages just how wrong they were.

Caveat emptor
What we are beginning to also see is new and unproven sources of salt arriving at the banquet table. A lot of salt buyers are going to get taken to the cleaners this season as they buy what they think is the same quality and type of salt they’ve had in the past from these new sources. When a new source of supply shows up in the midst of unprecedented shortages, it’s a good time to practice due diligence as a buyer and make sure you kow what you are committing to. They are here to make a quick killing with product they’ve never brought into the US and many of these first buyers will be their crash test dummies.

We’ve seen some salt from the Middle East, North Africa, and other countries that has some issues in our view. Be on the watch for it. Salt with high moisture content is easy to buy on the cheap because it will freeze solid when the temperatures drop. See how much your customers like chiseling their frozen up stockpiles and bags to understand how just 1-2% additional moisture can wreck havoc on something as simple as trying to load a truck at 20 degrees at 3AM.

After moisture content, look at the particle size distribution. We were offered a ship of salt that had a specification of 24% ½” size. Think about that. How many windshields or storefront plate glass do you want to buy this winter with half inch rocks flying off the spinner and treated surfaces you just hit? How effective is that ½” hunk of salt when it is jammed in the bottom of your sidewalk spreader with 100 lbs more on top of it? How much will your customers love you then? What about impurities and what are they? These mined materials are contaminated naturally with other elements and some of them are very problematic. Demand that your deicer supplier give you an analysis of what they are selling to you right down to the trace elements. If they tell you it’s a “proprietary formula”, then tell them that the Federal and State Right to Know Laws require they disclose what’s in their product and what the percentages are. Don’t let them blow smoke in your eyes in an attempt to blind your view and throw you off the scent. If they start dancing when you ask them for certifications of the contents of what they are selling you, then think about what else they are deliberately trying to hide. We are not sending rockets into orbit here; we’re melting snow and there are no secret formulas – only secrets they don’t want you to know – like how much regular old rock salt is really in that stuff they say is environmentally friendly! It is basic high school chemistry and don’t let anyone tell you differently. If they are hiding what they are selling to you, then you should wonder why.

These are all things that most of our customers don’t have to think about because we are carefully evaluating new and existing sources constantly and making certain that the quality of the deicing materials you get from us will work for you. We don’t want that 3AM wakeup call with your customer throwing a nutty on the other end of the phone because we just stopped traffic on two interstates and burned up the motors on your application equipment trying to spread junky deicers that didn’t work. We are proud of the quality of our products and we will put our certified chemical analysis up to prove it! Will your supplier provide a certified statement of what they just sold to you?

Bottom Line

Here is where I might quote Astronaut John Swigert, Jr from the Apollo 13 mission: “Houston, we’ve had a problem here”. While I don’t want to send everyone into panic mode, the fact is we are obligated to communicate just how serious the problems are in packaged deicers. We are definitely going to run out and we are getting there sooner than we expected; much sooner. We are unable build inventory in any product we sell. Normally at this time of year, our pre-season is coming to an end and we are refilling our warehouses in the last part of October and all of November as we await the arrival of snow. This season, that’s not happening. Demand is draining all of it as fast as we can bag it. This is not unique to us and this is an industry wide problem. We have been consistent in our message all year; if you need deicers this winter and want to be assured of having them, then you need to get them in your hands long before flakes arrive. In some cases it’s already too late; our calcium chloride flakes winter inventory is now weeks from being sold out. Dow is already sold out. There are no reinforcements on the horizon at this point as a worldwide shortage of calcium created by record snow and oil field demand continues to suck it up like a shop vac. No it’s not all gloom and doom, but the problems we saw last month have not improved at all. They have in fact deepened.

Lastly, we proudly trumpet the arrival of our Pure & Natural Deicer blend. This new product is tinted green for easy identification of treated areas and we have nearly five million pounds of it in our new Mansfield warehouse. Packed in 50 lb. heat sealed poly bags, 50 bags per pallet, Pure & Natural Deicer answers the call for a deicer with color. Look for us to add color to some of our regular deicers next season as we have finally identified a safe, biodegradable dye that breaks down quickly and is environmentally safe like our products.

Here are a few Google News searches that you might find interesting to read:

• Salt prices
• Salt shortages
• New Ice Age Coming
• Alternatives impacted

Tell your customers to be ready for supply problems when it snows and delays in deliveries the closer we get to snow season because these kinds of problems are not corrected quickly.

Rob English
President
www.meltsnow.com

It has been a few years since we’ve communicated information of this type to our marketplace; however recent events coupled with on-going problems have combined in such a way as to create “the perfect storm” of deicing demand and problems which our distributors and customers need to know about.

Last winter, the Midwest saw Old Man Winter return to them in earnest.   Multiple snow storms that came every few days in January, February, and March quickly depleted all available deicer inventories driving buyers into panic buying in ever increasing outlying areas.   Soon, Chicago, Milwaukee, and Indianapolis deicer buyers were buying anything they could get their hands on from as far away as New England.

As we began the 2008/2009 deicer season, early signs of trouble began to emerge: state bids and contracts were getting across-the-board “no bid” on deicer requirements; the private and contractor markets were told there was no deicer available for them for the coming season and that they needed to make alternate arrangements – even in places where long term relationships were in place; and the largest and most significant factor being that bid prices on salt bids were doubling, then tripling, and then even going higher.

Fuel price problems early in the summer didn’t abate which added additional pressures to already expensive deliveries.  Remember that 80% of salt costs are transportation, so $4 diesel and $100/bbl oil hit salt directly.

Hard as it is to believe, even the few Atlantic Hurricanes which have spawned thus far this season have had a serious impact on the deicer business.   Morton Salt’s solar salt plant in Inagua, Bahamas was on strike during the early part of the season and planned shipments did not get off the docks.   Incredibly, the strike settled at nearly the same time that first Hannah, then Gustav, and finally Ike delivered successive and devastating blows to this important production facility.   Various sources report the annual production of this plant at 1MM tons but the one thing that is clear is that Inagua suffered a level of destruction comparable to the damage we saw from Hurricane Andrew in Homestead, FL years ago.  It is unclear how long it will take to rebuild the plant and dock facilities and get this plant back online, but it is our view that it is very unlikely that solar salt from Inagua will be hitting the New England market before next year.

We have had an opportunity to confer with most of the salt companies supplying the MidAtlantic and Northeast Market in recent weeks and depending on who you talk to, prior to Morton’s catastrophic loss, the salt market was well over 1MM tons short for the US for this season.   That explains why we’ve seen so many “no-bids” and prices that have more than doubled.   Now, it’s anybody’s guess but it is a very safe bet that with the North American deicing market demand over 20MM tons annually, we are well in excess of 10% short meaning that our estimate of 2 MM tons is conservative.   Replacing these tons will be very problematic and this is where we now feel obligated to tell you how we read the tea leaves for 2008/2009.

Our estimates of packaged dry premium deicer production in North America, coupled with imported products are a total of 500,000 tons or less.   What we mean by that is that if you add up all the imported and domestically produced calcium chloride and magnesium chloride and throw in a few boutique products, we are 25% of the shortfall in salt.   We are seeing record demand for packaged deicers, and we characterize this like Amazonian army ants on the march consuming everything in their path to stubble and then marching on for additional sources of food.    This is happening right now to us across the board.  It is impossible for anyone to backfill this market for the season.    We are down to 1 US producer of dry calcium chloride from 5 just 10 years ago, so don’t expect Dow to be able to stand up under the load too long.  Tetra’s plant is under construction in AR but won’t be online with dry product for years at best.   So there’s no hope there for this season.    The only commercial magnesium chloride flake production in the US is on the other side of the Rockies 2,000 miles away leaving the northeast and East Coast to rely on imported material.

Forget about calcium chloride from China being much help as China shut down production of nearly everything in the manufacturing region months before the Olympics in an attempt to clean up the air for the coming tourists and Olympians.   The first shipment of calcium chloride to the US is expected to leave this month from China, but no other shipments are anticipated for this year so China will not be bailing us out.    Magnesium Chloride from Europe and Israel is in great shape; but like Dow with calcium, we can’t fill a hollow leg if the leg needs filling.   Two million tons short will not be covered by 500,000 tons no matter how you do the math.

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Some basics in premium deicers to consider:

• Transportation accounts for nearly half of the cost of premium deicers at the customer.     Where are fuel prices going?
• Outside of the two main US producers of magnesium and calcium chloride, it all has to come from overseas.    Break bulk vessels (ships) are busy with work getting going in China post Olympics and vessels are hard to locate, book, and afford.
• We began this season with the largest Magnesium and Calcium Chloride inventories we’ve ever had.   We felt it was EASILY enough to carry us into January given our historical demand.
• With salt in dire straights panicked buyers are turning towards premium deicers such as calcium chloride and magnesium chloride driving demand in premium deicers off the charts; army ant syndrome.
• If inventories are on the ground and ships are available, which is the case in our magnesium products but NOT our calcium chloride products, then we can organize and reload with reinforcements quickly.  In fact, we are already doing just that!

While the worst thing we can do is to institute panic, we are obligated to give you a “heads up” that we are seeing a run on the deicer bank and we don’t want any disappointments in our customer partners.

As of today, 9/17/2008, we continue to accept orders on all products including packaged salt and premium deicers without limitation; we are in business to sell our products.  We are in great shape with MAG Pellets and Flakes in 50 lb. bags and 2200 lb. super sacks.  We have good inventories of calcium chloride pellets in 50 lb. bags, and calcium chloride flakes in 50 lb. and 2200 lb. super sacks with reinforcements en route in both.  We have just finished unloading a bulk vessel of our new PURE AND NATURAL deicer and packaging is underway as we speak.  Inventories on our packaged Halite product as well bulk rock salt and treated salt, also called Magic Salt, are strong and at peak levels.  Our German based partner in bulk salt, K+S, has very good inventories in Chile and we are confident that we will hold up well in bulk highway salt for the foreseeable future.  However, packaged goods are not so certain.  Here’s a brief movie which explains why we have partnered with K+S North America in salt products for the past 14 years and why we are confident of the quality and availability of our bulk highway salt.

The purpose of this newsletter is to advise our customers and partners that we are seeing the start of a “run on the bank” in deicers precipitated by the events in the Midwest detailed above; and while we feel that we are in pretty good shape, there are no guarantees.

We’ve been saying all summer long that to be assured of product availability, you should place your orders early so that we can manage them and help you avoid being without product when and if the snows come in.   In our view, the bottom line is this: if it does not snow, the market will be ok; but if it does snow and snows before Christmas, all bets are off and these supply problems will be record breaking.   Remember that this is already a big problem in the Midwest and while good news travels fast, bad news travels faster.

Here are a few Google News searches that you might find interesting to read:

• Salt prices
• Salt shortages
• The China factor
• Alternatives impacted

Tell your customers to be ready for supply problems if it snows and delays in deliveries the closer we get to snow season because these kinds of problems are not corrected quickly.

Rob English
President
www.meltsnow.com